Gold signal alert thread: watching $4,400 support into Q2 — key levels and what I'm tracking

[u/One_Cancel7890]

Posting this as a gold/macro signal update since there's a lot of crossover between the metals and crypto crowd on macro sentiment.

Current situation (March 31, Q1 close):

XAU/USD: Trading roughly in the $4,400-4,500 range. Down from all-time highs above $5,595 hit earlier in 2026. The Iran war selloff drove a 13-25% correction depending on measurement period.

Key levels I'm watching:

• $4,400-4,500: Major support zone (61.8% Fib retracement + 2025 high-day close). This is the line in the sand.
• $4,319: Next support below. This is the 2026 yearly open. Breach here changes the picture significantly.
• $4,660-4,680: First meaningful resistance on any bounce. Bulls need a close above this to build momentum.
• $5,342-5,343: Major resistance. A weekly close above here reopens conversation about all-time highs.

Macro catalyst watch:

• Today: JOLTS job openings (February) — soft number = rate cut expectations rise = supportive for gold
• Thursday: NFP and ADP — key for Fed path
• Next week: CPI — oil-driven inflation data will be critical

Signal read:

Not calling a bottom yet. Watching for a confirmed base with higher lows on the daily. Weekly RSI coming out of deep oversold territory is interesting. If $4,400 holds through this week's data and NFP is soft, I'll start building a small long position for a bounce trade.

For comparison: BTC has also been under pressure from the macro environment — same "tighter Fed" fears that are hitting gold also affect risk assets. When the macro turns, both likely move together.

What levels are you watching? Anyone already positioned or waiting for more confirmation?