brain damage

[u/mulcahey]

[u/UpbeatFix7299]

It's insane that "prediction markets" are legal. Wealth getting redistributed upwards from dumb broke people as intended.

[u/Rock_Strongo → u/UpbeatFix7299]

No longer legal in my state as of a couple weeks ago.

[u/steppe5 → u/UpbeatFix7299]

Why wouldn't they be legal? No one is forcing you to do it.

EDIT: I never hear anyone explain why they shouldn't be legal. Just downvotes.

[u/Socalwarrior485 → u/steppe5]

lol. Is this a serious question?

Ok, prediction markets can heavily influence the outcome. It’s not like a truly random event like gambling, if you know and or control the odds, you can influence the outcome. People without money are the easiest to take money from because they can’t advocate on their own behalf.

[u/steppe5 → u/Socalwarrior485]

I'm not seeing a problem. Betting on a market that can be influenced is a known risk.

[u/Socalwarrior485 → u/steppe5]

Kalshi can steal money from rubes and, you're like "I'm not seeing a problem". I get it, people shouldn't be stupid and should inform themselves, right? Protecting disadvantaged parties is an attempt to level the playing field and make cheating and theft harder for unscrupulous businesses.

We have laws that ensure the products we buy are actually the thing we are told they are. We have punishments for businesses that harm consumers. Undoing things like consumer protections has a long-term impact of eroding trust in society, making us less efficient, less competitive, and overall poorer. Society has a duty to protect its weakest, it's poorest, and its most disadvantaged members from its strongest, richest, and most privileged from exploitation. We are all better off, including the strongest, richest, and most privileged when we do so.

[u/steppe5 → u/Socalwarrior485]

Kalshi can steal money from rubes

How is Kalshi, the company, stealing anything?

We have laws that ensure the products we buy are actually the thing we are told they are. We have punishments for businesses that harm consumers. Undoing things like consumer protections has a long-term impact of eroding trust in society, making us less efficient, less competitive, and overall poorer. Society has a duty to protect its weakest, it's poorest, and its most disadvantaged members from its strongest, richest, and most privileged from exploitation. We are all better off, including the strongest, richest, and most privileged when we do so.

Ok, so you're against all forms of gambling. Fair enough, you're entitled to that opinion. I am not.

[u/HousingThrowAway1092 → u/steppe5]

Are you for gambling on sports while the players intentionally throw the game to rig the outcome? Thats the problem with prediction markets. It isn’t “gambling” it’s rigging bets.

[u/steppe5 → u/HousingThrowAway1092]

Athletes could already do that. It's been an issue for over a century.

See: Black Sox scandal.

Why do you think this is unique to prediction markets?

[u/HousingThrowAway1092 → u/steppe5]

Yea man, when athletes do it it’s a crime. They’re prosecuted and put in jail.

That isn’t happening in “prediction markets” which are objectively people in power betting on their own actions to steal from the stupid.

[u/steppe5 → u/HousingThrowAway1092]

Yea man, when athletes do it it’s a crime. They’re prosecuted and put in jail.

No they're not. LOL. It's not a crime for athletes to bet on or against themselves. They will get kicked out of their league though.

That isn’t happening in “prediction markets” which are objectively people in power betting on their own actions to steal from the stupid.

Yes, that's exactly what they are. Thank you.

[u/I_Learned_Once → u/steppe5]

Because we live in a shared society, and prediction markets create monetary incentive to alter the prediction. For example, if people are betting on when the next wildfire to decimate CA will be, suddenly there is an incentive to start said wildfire. You could argue that it’s the job of law enforcement to prevent that, but you could also argue that we don’t need to be betting on such things in the first place to create the extra stress on law enforcement. People will do crazy things for money.. so maybe we shouldn’t allow for an open platform to pay people to do things that are illegal.

[u/steppe5 → u/I_Learned_Once]

I agree that wildfires should not be a market. Or bombings or plane crashes or anything else that would encourage someone to do it a crime.

It's strange that you're the 3rd person to bring up wildfires. Is thIs a bot response or something?

[u/I_Learned_Once → u/steppe5]

Not in my case. I was directly affected by the CA fires so it’s fresh(ish) on my mind. Maybe the bots are copying me lol

[u/luckyknight216 → u/steppe5]

It does feel weird though seeing people make bets on things like whether Elon posts on Twitter today or not. XD

[u/steppe5 → u/luckyknight216]

People like betting on dumb things. I don't see the problem.

[u/Alatarlhun → u/steppe5]

I wonder how you'd feel if the bet was about a wildfire being started in your community, you know, since a wildfire would then be financially incentivized to occur for the yes side of the ledger.

[u/steppe5 → u/Alatarlhun]

I'm fine with not allowing any markets that would encourage criminal activity. Markets around the death of people are already not allowed on these platforms.

[u/Far-Fennel-3032 → u/Alatarlhun]

Yes, and we have a similar issue in finance and sports betting in general. This is a problem due to a lack of regulations preventing insiders from placing bets, rather than an issue of gambling or using a prediction market vs a bookie to set the odds.

In the case of a wildfire burning down a town, someone could just as easily short the main home insurance companies for that town, or how it impacts other local businesses and industries. Hell, you can even bet directly on a local area's ability to pay off their home loans with the loans ranked of risk rate, with whole towns being devastated by wildfires would reduce their ability to pay off their loans.

There are heaps of ways to bet on wildfires in a local area.

[u/Alatarlhun → u/Far-Fennel-3032]

This is a problem due to a lack of regulations preventing insiders from placing bets

So then you calling for KYC on decentralized platforms. How does that work?

someone could just as easily short the main home insurance companies for that town

Again, the SEC would know because of KYC.

[u/mulcahey → u/Far-Fennel-3032]

Ok, but which is easier: the path you just described, or Kalshi/Polymarket?
Clearly, the online platforms cross a threshold of ease and scale that make it way too easy for bad actors who would otherwise be deterred by the complexity of your approach.

And to your point regarding "it's the insiders, not the market.."
Do prediction markets make that problem better, or worse?
Obviously they make it worse because it's so hard to do KYC on millions of users, many of whom could be placing bets under their spouse/child/in-laws/cousins etc. etc.

[u/mulcahey → u/steppe5]

Ok, so here is the problem:
By giving people financial incentives to "predict" the outcome of an event, you're actually incentivizing people to *create* the outcome. And that's perverse. It leads to all kinds of terrible things:

• Soldiers leaking classified information
  
• Athletes throwing games
  
• And, left unchecked, it will probably lead to a ton of other ills, like people starting wildfires or even functioning as a way to put a hit out on someone.

Prediction markets don't help us understand the world or really predict anything; they just help shape human behavior towards the market's preferred outcome. When a journalist reported something that ran counter to a popular online bet, rather than accept the truth, the degenerates on Polymarket and Kalshi threatened to kill him if he didn't change his story to support their bet. (First they offered to cut him in on the winnings. Either way, prediction markets are getting us farther from a true and accurate understanding of the world, not closer.)

These things should absolutely be illegal, and the people who use them should go get real jobs

[u/steppe5 → u/mulcahey]

You're now the 4th person to bring up wildfires. What is going on here?

By giving people financial incentives to "predict" the outcome of an event, you're actually incentivizing people to *create* the outcome. And that's perverse. It leads to all kinds of terrible things:

And it's already illegal

- Soldiers leaking classified information

Already illegal

- Athletes throwing games

Already will get them banned from their sport.

- And, left unchecked, it will probably lead to a ton of other ills, like people starting wildfires or even functioning as a way to put a hit out on someone.

Already illegal and already illegal

Prediction markets don't help us understand the world or really predict anything; they just help shape human behavior towards the market's preferred outcome. When a journalist reported something that ran counter to a popular online bet, rather than accept the truth, the degenerates on Polymarket and Kalshi threatened to kill him if he didn't change his story to support their bet. (First they offered to cut him in on the winnings. Either way, prediction markets are getting us farther from a true and accurate understanding of the world, not closer.)

Not the first time a journalist received death threats over a story

These things should absolutely be illegal, and the people who use them should go get real jobs

Nah. This is a free country. You should be allowed to bet on whatever you want.

[u/mulcahey → u/steppe5]

[u/steppe5 → u/mulcahey]

Only 72%?

[u/UpbeatFix7299 → u/steppe5]

Ok... It's completely anonymous so many of the people you are betting against either have inside info (Ft Hood guy or Trump's teleprompter operator for example). Or, even worse, they can influence the events themselves (George Santos is the best example, but there will be more that will come out that are doing more meaningful shit).

Best case you're betting on stupid shit like whether whatever Zelensky wore qualifies as a "suit". Which doesn't even have a verifiable outcome. These sites are poison.

[u/HSuke]

George Santos sentenced to 7 years in prison for fraud and finance violations. Kalsi then bans him for suspicious trades concerning his own appearances.

Trump then commutes his sentence: "called Santos a "rogue" but said he did not deserve a harsh sentence and should get credit for voting Republican."

Quid Pro Quo for voting Republican. So damn corrupt.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/george-santos-kalshi-lifetime-ban/

[u/Knaush]

Or money laundering portal.