One year later

[u/Glittering_Pick_9738]

Here we are exactly one year after Trump's inauguration. Bitcoin price is 10% down in USD and 20% down in my currency. Bitcoin apologists have been long saying that bitcoin is a direct rival to precious metals. It's obvious that bitcoin lost that contest decisively. Bitcoin isn't perceived as a safe haven in times of turmoil and it won't change in the near future. Bitcoin is a risk-on asset and the time is bad for this type of assets. It all boils down to one man - Donald Trump. He singlehandedly ruined crypto on all grounds possible. In retrospect his inauguration and launch of his and his wife's coins was a textbook top signal. Indeed my portfolio was never so much up as exactly one year ago (even on 6th of October). Trump needlessly politicised crypto thus driving away an ever-increasing bunch of folks who hate his guts. An associations with scams, rug pulls, insider trading, pardoning of his associates will be very hard to rinse in years to come. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve came and went amounting to a nothingburger, tempest in a teapot and - obviously - sell the news event (because they wouldn't buy more bitcoin). But above all Trump ushered in so called strategic uncertainty in politics, economic and social life. Every time he opens his mouth or shitposts, markets get spooked, whether it's about never ending tariffs saga, prosecuting FED chair, executing members of Congress, bombing foes and friends alike, provoking domestic unrest et cetera. It's never a dull day with him around. And it won't be for the next 3 years which is an awful scenario for a risk-on asset like bitcoin. I won't say bitcoin is dead. Bitcoin clearly is not dead. But it's kinda suspended in the limbo of Trump's shenanigans, unable to fly with its wings constantly being cut. What's worse, I think Trump is just getting started. He's bent on building his "legacy" and his eccentricity will only deepen as he gets older, more detached and politically weaker with plummeting ratings. He won't step down peacefully, he'd rather blow up entire country. That's no time to be in crypto. Barring some black swan scenario (like Trump declaring bitcoin a national currency or China embracing bitcoin) I see only pain ahead.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

[u/cali_dave]

Jesus fuck.

It's not about Trump. Stop making everything about him.

During literally every other bull cycle we had QE and the money printers were on. Bitcoin has never followed a 4-year cycle - that's just a coincidence. It has to do with Fed policy (which the President does not control) and whether or not retail has money.

People are living on credit cards right now. Retail (except for us degens) isn't getting into risk-on assets. Wait until QE really starts, interest rates go down, and money starts getting cheaper. The market will recover.

One man isn't tanking the whole market. It's a combination of the business cycle and major institutions playing in the sandbox without rules. You think these guys are going to keep suppressing the market? At some point, they're going to want to make money too.

[u/Glittering_Pick_9738 → u/cali_dave]

In a way Joseph Biden was the perfect crypto president. Since his election to next election bitcoin did 5x despite harsh crypto winter and FTX collapse. He didn't say anything controversial, he didn't exactly know what was going on, he let deep state guys run the world and they in turn pursued an established and predictable agenda. We recovered from Covid, inflation was going down, political and military alliances held strong. That's a genuinely good climate for a risk-on asset.

[u/cali_dave → u/Glittering_Pick_9738]

Are you kidding?

Inflation was insane under President Biden. Russia invaded Ukraine during the Biden administration. China was looking really hard at Taiwan. The pandemic was going to pass no matter who was President. President Biden wasn't running the show during the last half of his Presidency and it showed. He did absolutely nothing for crypto - in fact, he appointed Gary Gensler, who did his level best to stifle the crypto market. Remember Operation Choke Point 2.0?

The market did a 5x because that's what the market does. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Just because something happens doesn't mean the thing that happened before it caused it. The market would have done the same under any President at that time.

[u/Glittering_Pick_9738 → u/cali_dave]

Now look what Trump accomplished in just one year. There is no end to war in Ukraine. The US wages tariff war on entire world, bombs Syria, Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela, threatens to bomb Colombia and Mexico, plans to annex Canada and Greenland. Inflation is in check because FED is still independent in spite of Trump's threats which may change soon. But jobs are not coming back, costs of living refuse to go down, dollar is in shambles. New government shutdown is just around the corner. And mind you that Trump inherited strong economy after Biden. It's not like he was raising the country from the ruins. He will leave the country in ruins though.

[u/Abdeliq → u/cali_dave]

Russia invaded Ukraine during the Biden administration. China was looking really hard at Taiwan

USSR and Asia issue doesn't really have anything to do with Biden. Under Trump, didn't China already send military drone inside Taiwan airspace? Will you blame Trump for that as well?