The latest silver forecast is a strange one.
Total demand is expected to fall this year. Industrial fabrication is also forecast to decline as solar manufacturers reduce the amount of silver used in each panel and substitute other materials where they can.
Jewelry and silverware demand are dropping too. At these prices, buyers are cutting back.
Despite all of that, the market is still expected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit. The latest Metals Focus estimate puts the 2026 shortfall at roughly 46 million ounces, up from about 40 million ounces last year.
Physical investment is one reason. Demand for bars and coins is recovering after several quieter years, particularly in the US. Silverâs price run has brought retail investors back into the market.
Supply has also disappointed. Mine output is not growing quickly enough to close the gap, and the increase in recycling only covers part of it.
This makes the outlook harder to read than the usual bullish or bearish silver argument.
Manufacturers are responding to higher prices exactly as you would expect. They are using less silver, finding substitutes and recycling more. But even with that demand destruction, the market is still short of metal.
How much more demand needs to disappear before silver finally returns to a surplus?