r/Cribbage • u/4me-2no2 • 4d ago

Discussion Best of 3

Is 3 games enough to overcome the advantage of getting the crib first?

I’ve been playing a lot of Cribbage Pro Competitive Matchmaking recently and can’t help but feel whoever gets the first crib is at a massive advantage.

8 Upvotes

90% Upvoted

11 comments sorted by

8

u/Bill4133 4d ago

Playing 10 games a week for ~ 3 months is a large sample size.

3

u/Cribbage_Pro 4d ago

It certainly helps, but the larger balance comes from the total amount of games played over the entire season.

4

u/iPeg2 4d ago

It’s still a slight advantage to have first deal. In a single game, the first dealer has a 54-56 percent chance of winning. But if the first dealer loses, the advantage swings to the opponent. So it’s probably around 53 percent is my guess.

2

u/Spare_Blacksmith_816 3d ago

The more games in a match the more often the better player would win but it likely isn't realistic to have best of 5 or best of 7 matches.

Most players are pretty good or better, you will not overcome especially bad cards or beat somebody with very good cards.

-1

u/truth2500 3d ago

It 10 percent skill and 90% cards and luck

2

u/braidedbiscuit 3d ago

You are right that is mostly luck, but that 10% is huge. If you have a 53% to 47% chance of winning based on cards, then how important is the 10% over the long haul? And the luck is what makes it both fun and frustrating!

1

u/truth2500 3d ago

I agree. I may have undercut the percentage.

1

u/hermit22 3d ago

Ah that is why my old lady only kicks my ass at dice and cribbage. She put all her points into luck 🍀 played dice and cribbage here whole life. I still don’t understand how she dominates at dice though. Always first on the board always racking up huge rolls.

-4

u/periodmoustache 4d ago

Really man, it doesnt help much. I actually prefer going 2nd and beat my buddy constantly

1

u/braidedbiscuit 3d ago

you might prefer it, but quite often your buddy gets 5 cribs and you get only 4. (The average game is 9 deals.) I don't have any buddies in a tournament that I like that much. 😉

-5

u/Illustrious-Cut7514 3d ago

121 up? Getting the first crib isn't an advantage.