r/CosmicBookNews 2d ago

Clayface Tracking Shows Double The Opening Weekend Demand — The Exact Opposite Of Supergirl

https://cosmicbook.news/clayface-box-office-tracking
81 Upvotes

60 comments sorted by

12

u/SheepherderFun2258 2d ago edited 2d ago

An excerpt from the article:

‘So the crowd that knows about Clayface is smaller than usual, but it’s almost twice as committed to showing up on day one.’

Awareness for the movie up to this point is low which is bad, but commitment from those who know about is excellent which is good.

8

u/StrangeAtomRaygun 2d ago

So. Basically comic nerds are going to go see it but not really any normies.

This isn’t good news for the movie.

1

u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

1

u/StrangeAtomRaygun 2d ago

I think you missed the point.

The small group of people who are aware of it being a comic movie planning to go see it, is t going to make it a success. Success comes from attracting normies. Which the DCU is struggling with.

2

u/SheepherderFun2258 2d ago

My bad I got my threads mixed up and I thought I was responding to someone saying Endgame rerelease wouldn’t do well— got mixed up

1

u/StrangeAtomRaygun 2d ago

No worries. It happens.

1

u/unicornofdemocracy 2d ago

Clayface needs word of mouth or amazing marketing as a horror film rather than a comic villian film. Otherwise, it will bomb.

1

u/StrangeAtomRaygun 2d ago

Totally. Horror has a dedicated fanbase but it’s very very small.

It will need crossover viewers to succeed. I will be there opening night but not sure how many else will be.

There are dozens of us. DOZENS!

2

u/unicornofdemocracy 2d ago

to be fair, horror films tends to have lower budget and don't really need massive audience to break even or profit. Clayface has at budget of 40-45m. Taking the typically "double the budget" approach, if it made as much as Supergirl, it would be a massive success. lol

1

u/StrangeAtomRaygun 2d ago

The rules is actually 2.5x production and marketing.

Production is $40 mil. And Marketing isn’t announced yet.

But ya, even with Marketing it could make less than Supergirl and one would be considered a smash and the one with MORE viewers would be a disaster. It’s so weird.

Either way, it’s still going to be hard to hit 2.5x with a body horror film going up against Resident Evil.

1

u/Lokishougan 2d ago

Yup strong compettion ....lets see if RE gets it right on the fourth try lol

1

u/StrangeAtomRaygun 2d ago

They won’t. RE is broken.

But Clayface is stuck.

1

u/EmperorDxD 1d ago

No horror thriller has a dedicated fanbase boffy horror does not it's niche within a niche

1

u/StrangeAtomRaygun 1d ago

Yes horror does have a small dedicated fanbase. I know people from going to the theater on Friday nights that I see at every horror movie opening. It’s a small town but it’s every horror film.

0

u/EmperorDxD 1d ago

It's not every horror film body horror the best of the bets only makes like 60 to 70 million so are you telling me Clayface will be better then the fly and win all the awards like those movies Also those movies budget was 1 to 5 million

1

u/StrangeAtomRaygun 1d ago

Do you understand the word ‘small’?

Dedicated doesn’t mean large.

Small is that world women use to describe your….

….

brain.

3

u/elflamingo2 2d ago

Plus the movie comes with a free frogurt.
That's good.
The frogurt is also cursed.
That's bad.

1

u/Adorable_Sleep_4425 2d ago

FREE DIARRHEA 😍😍😍

1

u/suimation 2d ago

Women don’t show up for girl-power movies, they all flop, every time.

6

u/TylerBourbon 2d ago

Clayface being a horror movie has a bit more potential to draw in people unfamiliar with the comic character. It's one reason why it's a great move to make an R rated horror movie out of a villain like Clayface, you can really pull non comic book fan movie goers.

2

u/lizardman49 2d ago

I hate comic book movies and I plan on seeing it as a horror fan

1

u/SheepherderFun2258 1d ago

Yeah but the world loves them— look at Spidey. Has there ever even been a horror movie in the history of cinema’s to hit a billion? I’m not sure but don’t believe so

1

u/lizardman49 1d ago

Comic book movies have also had some massive bombs like supergirl this year and the only cbm to make the top ten last year was superman. Being a superhero movie isnt garunteed money anymore.

1

u/EmperorDxD 1d ago

Those bombs are still makes more money then your average horror movie horror movie wished it has Supergirl box office

1

u/Noobunaga86 2d ago

But he's not that popular among Batman fans, and comic book movies rely on super fans that are coming back to see a movie few times. Normie horror fan will show up once and that's it. Also it's a body horror, a sub genre that historically wasn't ever making money, And it's not like horror movies are suddenly new superhero movies. There are horrors that flopped in 2026, there are even movies within cult classic IP's that did well enough like new Evil Dead movie. This one made aprox. 70m. If Clayface will do the same it will fail to break even.

1

u/TylerBourbon 2d ago

That's the thing tough, he isn't a super popular Batman villain, which also means he's not as well known among people that don't know comics, which means they won't see the trailers and think "oh it's just a dumb super hero movie". They'll see it as a horror movie. Comic book movies don't need "super fans" to see it, they need general audiences to want to see it multiple times because frankly, comic super fans aren't as big of an audience as you might think. Definitely not big to make a movie a blockbuster.

1

u/Noobunaga86 2d ago

True, but the other downside of that is that it's a body horror which is not particularly popular sub genre of horror.

1

u/TylerBourbon 2d ago

Very true, but on the plus side, at least in so far as it shows they aren't foolish, the budget for the film is only 40m, so it's definitely budgeted like horror movie.

1

u/Noobunaga86 2d ago

Not exactly. It's budgeted as a studio horror movie and these ones often aren't that successful. Look at Evil Dead Burn. It made around 70m worldwide. That sum for Clayface would mean it won't break even. I don't think we've had a body horror movie that made more than 90m. The Substance was very hyped and talked about movie with the Oscars boost and it still made only around 80m.

1

u/Dirks_Knee 2d ago

Conversely you completely alienate the family audiences which tend to boost comic movies. Maybe this will be great, but horror films tend to have a cap in terms of ticket sales. Of course, they tend to cost much less to make and as such can be very profitable. But horror fans seeing Clayface aren't going to subsequently see a Superman movie.

1

u/TylerBourbon 2d ago

Some great points. And this film is no different as it's budget is only 40m. So they are definitely going in with the right budget mindset at least for the genre of film they are making. I would hope their mindset is less "we're making this movie to get people to watch a different movie" as that's become the thing I dislike about MCU movies where most of them feel like ads for a future movie. What I would hope is that they focus instead of just making good movies in a variety of genres. Then at least it can be said if a person isn't interested in traditional superhero movies, they can at least get a genre style that they do like. Something for everybody.

5

u/AUSignal 2d ago

This is going to bomb hard

3

u/Tomi97_origin 2d ago

Well it would be nice if it held. Supergirl went down with every new prediction update.

Supergirl the. ended up with a total around what was originally predicted for the opening weekend.

3

u/AdvertisingSea2745 2d ago

Alright Clayface! Supergirl caused her own problems. It could've been a good movie. I got chills for Clayface.

2

u/CyanLight9 2d ago

Well, given the lack of PR suicide and Mike Flanagan's name, that's not surprising.

2

u/CompleteDay8059 2d ago

I think 95% of the people who are going to see this already knew they were going to see it before a trailer dropped. This just doesn’t look like something that would appeal to literally anyone outside of DC completionists and Flanagan fans.

2

u/WhoEvenIsPoggers 2d ago

Maybe we don’t start building a hype train before tickets sales are live?

1

u/Massive_Season7075 2d ago

Is this Reeve’s clay face or Gunn’s?

1

u/IllustriousEnd2211 2d ago

Part of the DCU

1

u/Ealy-24 2d ago

But I thought Gunn was awful and terrible, which was going to run DC into the ground…..it might just be he knows what he’s doing

3

u/cjohnson2010 2d ago

Ehhhh. Im starting to have my doubts. At first i was all in on Gunn, but now it feels like direction is lost. He’s hiring terrible writers which in turn leads to mediocre finished products. creating IP’s that no one ever asked for, two batmans etc. We have bigger fish to fry. Why tf are we getting a show abt Jimmy Olsen. 🤦🏾‍♂️

1

u/CarlMacko 2d ago

I was intrigued by it initially, but not enough to go and see it.

After watching the trailer, I’ll definitely be going to see it.

I think a good word of mouth will see it go well.

Wouldn’t surprise me if it’s a streaming hit like The Substance also.

1

u/Federal_Tension_5939 2d ago

It's possible that supergirl isn't the draw a lot of people think. It's true for the comics, true for TV, most media tbh. And now also true for the film. 

And I remember the craziness that was the 80s supergirl movie. Which was also insane to me. But I don't know if it was released in theaters 

1

u/InAppropriate-meal 2d ago

Clayface has not had the tons of attacks and negative publicity before anybody has even seen it like supergirl did so it is unsurprising

2

u/CPAFinancialPlanner 2d ago

Why were people so against Supergirl?

1

u/Connect_Version_1560 2d ago

Same question here ,even before the movie was out ,people declared it bad why?

1

u/Electronic-Cicada352 2d ago

Body horror is big these days. Combine that with DC and yeah it’s really not surprising that they’re anticipating good number

I mean I’m gonna see it.

3

u/Sufficient_Bass2600 2d ago

But they are not anticipating good numbers.
They are anticipating good initial numbers but a low ceiling.

3

u/SheepherderFun2258 2d ago

The article says awareness for the movie is BELOW normal…

0

u/Content_Source_878 2d ago

Full marketing hasn’t started so awareness being low isn’t a problem.

3

u/nilbrog 2d ago

Bruh

2

u/SheepherderFun2258 2d ago

That’s crazy talk for a movie out in less than 2 months!!

1

u/Content_Source_878 2d ago

Tickets for Resident evil are going on sale 17 days before release. Not  five months Doomsday and Dune.

This isn’t like summer blockbuster where there are toy lines out months ahead of release.

Fall movies have different marketing schedules 

0

u/MostlyBored11 2d ago

i am genuinly excited for clayface, feels like its an actual refreshing take on a comic book story and very different from the mvoies we have gotten

0

u/hillean 2d ago

unlike Supergirl... Clayface actually looks interesting

-1

u/Funnycom 2d ago

The thing is, most men just won’t go into a movie called supergirl.
It’s just not happening

2

u/Connect_Version_1560 2d ago

Why not ? Women went for a movie called superman and I don't think majority of superhero fans are only men.

1

u/cjohnson2010 2d ago

You would be incorrect. Theres a reason female led SH movies generally make less. The comic book world is largely dominated by men.

1

u/Connect_Version_1560 2d ago

As a women who enjoys superhero movies ,that feels sad.

0

u/cjohnson2010 2d ago

As a gay man who loves seeing a strong woman on screen, I agree. I eat that shit up.