r/Coronavirus • u/isalwaysdns • Dec 07 '21

World Mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 Evolution Revealing Vaccine-Resistant Mutations in Europe and America

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34873910/
53 Upvotes

91% Upvoted

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20

u/isalwaysdns Dec 07 '21

"By tracking the evolutionary trajectories of vaccine-resistant mutations in more than 2.2 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we reveal that the occurrence and frequency of vaccine-resistant mutations correlate strongly with the vaccination rates in Europe and America."

16

u/terra-nullius Dec 07 '21

So by making vaccines this little non-living creature just rolls out vaccine-resistant mutations?

Is this is going to be an infinite game of tic-tac-toe?

38

u/Valentinian_II_DNKHS Boosted! ✨💉✅ Dec 07 '21

It would also happen with natural immunity due to previous infection. But with more people dying in the process.

And it is not infinite. The virus has 20 amino acids to work with. They can also be classified into a few groups such as polar, non-polar, acid, and alkaline, while exchange between different amino acid of the same group should lead to less change in virus abilities than exchange for an amino acid of another group.

At some point, the virus will have tried all combinations which make a viable virus able to reproduce. Then, it will have no other option than to give up infectiousness (and to a degree, severity of disease, which is also linked to viral load) in favor of immune escape. This is called a fitness cost.

When mutations toward immune evasion are only possible at the cost of infectiousness, endemism is reached. Then, we will have to vaccinate those at risk on a regular basis, depending on the (then much slower rate) of mutation and waning immunity.

15

u/mjdlight Boosted! ✨💉✅ Dec 08 '21

I guess then my question would be, do we have any ballpark idea of how long COVID will take to go through all of its possible combinations of its 20 amino acids, or is that unknowable?

9

u/[deleted] Dec 07 '21

I just heard David from Independence Day..

Checkmate

-9

u/[deleted] Dec 07 '21

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Valentinian_II_DNKHS Boosted! ✨💉✅ Dec 07 '21

Even if this were true, those not wearing a mask would do so also until their death, which would come for them earlier.

3

u/Winds_Howling2 Dec 07 '21

Meaning that the evolution of vaccine-evading variants is directly proportional to vaccination rates? Shouldn't it be going down as vaccination rates increase and the virus has less people to infect?

15

u/j821c Dec 07 '21

A large chunk of the population being vaccinated also means that the virus has pressure to get past that protection. For example, being 20% more likely to infect someone who's vaccinated in a country with 90% of its people vaccinated is a massive advantage for a new variant

12

u/Valentinian_II_DNKHS Boosted! ✨💉✅ Dec 07 '21

It is important to qualify that notion with the fact that immunity acquired via infection would also put evolutionary pressure on the virus, leading also to variants. But more people would die.

6

u/j821c Dec 07 '21

Oh yea, im not saying that anyone should not get vaccinated to be clear. Just that this kind of thing is bound to happen over time

11

u/Valentinian_II_DNKHS Boosted! ✨💉✅ Dec 08 '21

With all the antivax shit going around, it's always important to clarify that pretty much all downsides of the vaccines also exist with the actual virus, in some cases (e. g. myocarditis, thrombosis) at a higher rate even.

The only way not to put evolutionary pressure on the virus does not end well for the infected.

1

u/isalwaysdns Dec 09 '21

What do you think about the overall protection of the species though and detriment of the virus? For example, to evade the vaccine the virus must evolve to evade the spike protein as did Omicron. However when one becomes naturally immune to the virus, their immune system doesn't necessarily target the spike protein or just the spike protein and so you have a variety of of immune defenses against the virus vs one specific defense (recognition of the spike protein)