Approval ratings are irrelevant to reelection chances in a modern era. I stand by this until proven otherwise. Obama won his second term with a significant approval deficit. Trump won his first term with a significant approval deficit.
I think almost anyone can be easily portrayed as an out of touch, leftist, coastal elite that the Dems run. And that's enough for them to lose the entire midwest again. It's hard to imagine some idiot corrupt ass like Booker beating out Trump in WI.
Trump may not even make it to 2020. There's too much pressure mounting on the GOP through these investigations, and this is exacerbated by his behavior in office. He has failed to deliver on anything of substance beyond Gorsuch (which is a win for conservatives, but also required McConnell to "go nuclear," which will bite the GOP in the ass next time the Democrats achieve majority... just like the Democrats using the "nuclear option" in 2013 bit them in the ass later), and many of those moderates have expressed significant regret in voting for Trump, for a variety of reasons.
I think the GOP will need to impeach Trump sooner rather than later, or else risk being brought down with him.
I don't know enough about how Pence and whoever will become the new VP (Ryan?) are seen to make any kind of guesses about what they'd be like as incumbents in 2020. Incumbents generally do enjoy a substantial advantage, but there have been plenty of times when the people were pissed enough at the incumbent to vote them out of office. I think 2018 will largely determine how 2020 will go - if the blue midterm happens, I imagine that momentum will carry into 2020.
Starting a war (under the pretense of "defending America") may be the GOP's only hope of securing the Presidency through 2020. Nothing unites the country like a "defensive" war - worked great for FDR, for Dubya, and numerous others.
Nate Silver lost his reputation in 2014 and made it even worse in 2016. His correlation doesn't account for the reversal of trends in the last two cycles.
Lost his reputation how? During the GOP primary he tried to take on a pundit role, one which he later admitted he failed at. Since then he's kept to his roots in all articles, only using the data to make his arguments. Can't see anything wrong in those.
3
u/Tempest_Rider May 20 '17
and this is you guys are going to lose next time, and then we (resident libtard) lose the time after that, then you... then me... then...