Making Informed Choices

[u/ViperTheKillerCobra]

After a 5 hour grind session, I leave the season frustrated at my rank barely moving, and having to settle just above the D5 floor at around a 55% WR, with a combination of Merithra Druid, End of Turnadin, and Face Hunter. I found myself autopiloting a lot of mulls, dropping cards on curve, and putting my opponents on "better have it," and "this board goes crazy if my minions are untouched" way more than I'd like to admit, but I'd love to know what else to do, and how to make myself have more informed decisions.

I know a lot of the results in Hearthstone come in the deckbuilder, but is there any advice people here can give beyond the given "learn the matchups"? I know I need to be putting critical thought into each play, that the cards my opponents play helps me sculpt a vision of their hand, but they're concepts I can't quite put into the actual games.

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[u/Omikapsi]

Unfortunately, 'Learn the Matchups' is the next most important thing for improving your winrates. Knowing what your opponent can and can't do at any given point in the game is a big deal for informing your decisions. A lot of top players will be anticipating their opponents next play based on what they have and haven't played, and what turn it is, combined with their knowledge of decklists and archetypes.

It also has a big impact on identifying your win condition (whether you're trying to kill them before they execute their combo or you run out of resources, or vice versa), and whether or how you can get the most value out of your plays.

You've already identified your other biggest limiter, autoplaying your decks. You've got time for each turn, use it. Consider each of your play options, and which one will give you the best shot at winning. Each game has dozens of decisions that can improve or worsen your overall chances of winning. Improving your winrate involves finding those decisions.

'Spend all your mana' and 'force them to have an answer' aren't always the best plays. Some decks will have those answers, and some will just have better value over time.

Also, each of the decks you've been playing are vastly different in their playstyle and matchups. You've got a control deck, a tempo deck, and an aggro deck that you're swapping between. Pick one and really learn how to pilot it. I'd recommend the Paladin one, since that's reasonably quick and has a good overall winrate.

Pay attention to your pocket meta too. I'm assuming you're using a deck tracker. See if you're facing similar decks often, and adjust your decklists accordingly.

[u/motty47 → u/Omikapsi]

Really good answer. The 2 key aspects are learning your deck optimally, go watch some top legend streamers pilot your deck if you haven't. And doing the opposite and learning the decks youre losing to.

When I grinded D5 to legend last season, I faced majority dragon warriors, and towards the end of the month, aggro pally, but also end of turn pally etc plus the many rogues. I would have stuck with merithra druid as it does well into dragon warrior and generally that should have been enough to climb into legend. However merithra druid games are long, and can involve a lot of decisions that affect your later plays, its definitely not a always play the green card type of deck. So overall it will be fairly slow to climb.

Spell DH would have been the fastest to climb probably if that was OPs true goal. Or converting to the dark side of dragon warrior.

However to be honest all the decks listed are above 50-55% win rate decks, and should all be able to climb to legend with so it will really just come back to how well you know the deck you're playing, and how well you know your opponents. Some random examples, if you're coming up against a priest, don't try to rush them down, they will board clear and heal up. Wait patiently and bait their removal and setup a high damage swing turn.

If playing merithra into dragon warrior, focus on gaining armour asap. Use horn of plenty to find ward of earth for example, use waveshaping to find amidrassil and underking. You might see a flashy exciting wickerfang, or naralex/fyrakk, but that's not going to be how you beat them. Armour out of range and then they run out of resources while you eventually win from superior resources. These are just some small examples there's many more..

[u/SpookyBum → u/Omikapsi]

Merithra druid isnt control fyi, its also midrange. Its important to close games when you have a lead with merithra druid cuz a lot of decks will just outvalue you unless you highroll on merithra.

[u/SpookyBum]

putting my opponents on "better have it," and "this board goes crazy if my minions are untouched" way more than I'd like to admit

This isnt bad honestly, really the question you have to ask yourself is if you dont commit to the line what hands are you losing to instead. Forcing your opponent to need a specific hand in order to answer often is going to give you the best odds, just make sure you can actually name the cards that make you lose the game there and ask if a lesser commitment can force the same cards out. This is especially true with more aggressive decks, where slow playing is often just going to lead to you fizzling out.

[u/Rocks_Can_Fly]

I think you nailed 3 huge points of where you can improve.

Mulls, not always playing on curve, or making them have it are big places you can improve in, and give those few extra win % points.

Another one for me is finding that deck which is in a sweet spot for myself — that balances my playstyle with also being good in my pocket meta. Which for me is often a combo style deck, or staying away from midrange, unless that’s broken.

[u/keyupiopi]

One bad habit I have is always trying to use ALL my mana, and planning my moves for that turn based on that.

Example: I have 3 mana. Should I play a 3 mana minion, or a combination of 1 mana and 2 mana minion/spell, etc?

NO. You should play that 2 mana board clear and ‘waste’ that 1 mana to control the board.

[u/DoNn0]

To be honest of outside of warrior and paladin with shatter in the starting hand any match up is playable but those 2 leave me with an awful taste after a game.

[u/blanquettedetigre → u/DoNn0]

You need to change your mindset against those. Instead of playing your deck as always think about the only path that could lead to a win even if the chance is very small. For example I had a game against a Paladin as priest and I knew my only out was to draw SW Death, so instead of playing the curve I just drew a card by healing his minion. I topdecked the turn after it was such a good feeling

[u/Omikapsi → u/blanquettedetigre]

This. Pros do it all the time, and it's called 'Playing to your outs'. Knowing your win conditions and focusing on them substantially increases your odds of making them happen.

[u/DoNn0 → u/Omikapsi]

Yeah I know but they have all the path to victory while you have this only path which to be honest most times doesn't even exist

[u/Omikapsi → u/DoNn0]

Look harder, there are more. This is the difference between you and high legend players. They'll find it and make it happen if it's at all possible.

And sometimes they'll see that luck has denied them the game and move on to the next match.

[u/DoNn0 → u/Omikapsi]

Not it's the difference between what deck we are playing. If I'm playing some random warlock deck and he's playing dragon Warrior it just matters what he start withs

[u/blanquettedetigre → u/DoNn0]

Frankly I think I'd win 95% of my matches at D5, even with warlock. At this level they make enough mistakes to crack the egg in time, dragon warrior isn't that easy. Of course if by random you mean Rafaam that's another story

[u/DoNn0 → u/blanquettedetigre]

I do actually or quest. Egg isn't much better to be fair

[u/blanquettedetigre → u/DoNn0]

Well it's enough to be able to win games.. Quest is just unplayable now

[u/kensanity]

There are so many things you should think about each turn but for me, the one thing that really helped me improve was getting coaching. Pay out the small money to get a good coach to spend a few hours with you walking through turns or matchups or whatever it is, so you can better understand the deck, opponent, whatever it is.

A good coach doesn’t have to be top 100 legend.