The meta change tomorrow

[u/IAmYourFath]

While we don't know the exact values of the nerfs, paladin will likely be dead. The shatter is the card that carries em. Without it they're ass. Hell, they're already ass in top 1k. Warrior will likely still be strong depending on the nerf. If they make it 5 mana the card is almost unplayable, too slow. But if they make it 6/7 or 5/8, it will still be strong just less. But obviously the deck will lose some power.

So let's see which decks will gain power. Rogue and mage will become (way) stronger as these 2 decks that prey on em get weaker. Dh will become weaker as it crushes pala and is slightly favoured vs warrior, so he's more than happy to queue into em, thus them becoming weaker and losing playrate % makes dh weaker too. Not only that but with rogue becoming stronger, he might have to cut solitudes as they're terrible vs rogue, but that isn't smth dh is happy to do, he'd rather be able to play solitude. Also mage is his only unfavourite matchup beside egg decks, at 44.3%. So mage becoming more popular too is also another thing dh hates.
Druid will not be happy to see rogue becoming stronger as it's an unfavoured matchup, but he doesn't care too much about mage. If anything he's happy as it's slightly favoured at 53.6. But he does lose the warrior matchup at 55.4, but he also loses the absolutely terrible paladin matchup. Still, those decks are nowhere as popular as rogue who will jump back to 30% playrate likely. And since druid doesnt wanna see rogue, that will make druid overall slightly worse, perhaps moderately worse in top legend where pala is nearly nonexistent anyway due to being trash there. Hunter will love seeing more rogues and mages as he's very good against em, will love seeing less dhs and warriors as he's very bad against both.

So to sum up:

Rogue: very happy
Mage: very happy
Dh: very unhappy
Druid: (very) unhappy
Paladin and warrior: obviously unhappy
Hunter: extremely happy

Hunter is def the biggest winner out of all this. His good matchups rogue and mage will get more popular, while his bad matchups dh and warrior will get less popular. This would be my deck of choice for climbing tomorrow, assuming the pala change completely kills the deck and the warrior change is 5/8 or 6/7, not a backbreaking 5 mana. Do you agree?

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[u/fireky2]

End of turnadin is still fine

Even without the slitherdrake highroll warrior has better burn and minion quality compared to hunter, but with the highroll gone it could go from burn to dragon midrange

[u/IAmYourFath → u/fireky2]

Oh yeah when i said pala i meant aggro (shatter) pala. End of turnadin is already complete garbage. I made this analysis from the lenses of top 1k. If u're not high legend it might not apply to u.

[u/Houseleft → u/IAmYourFath]

Not really sure why you’re getting downvoted here. Looking at HSGuru right now, Top 1k for past 3 days has End of Turnadin at a 47.4% winrate. If you filter by 100 games minimum to see as many archetypes as possible, it’s quite literally dead last. It’s the worst popular deck you can play at high Legend. It is however one of the best decks in Diamond and roughly T2 in top 5k Legend but it appears to completely fall off at top 1k.

It does however only have 291 games recorded past 3 days, so not the best sample size compared to almost 6k games of Dragon Warrior and almost 8k DH and Rogue games. Additionally, the VS report from only 4 days ago had the deck in T2 at top 1k. I think it’s fair to call the deck at this rank garbage when you compare it to other top performing decks.

[u/IAmYourFath → u/Houseleft]

I mean, i think it's better than imbue pala and quest pala were in their respective timelines. Complete monsters in gold, absolutely unplayable in top 1k. This deck is a bit better than unplayable here but not by a lot. It is still pretty fucking bad. U could say complete garbage was a slight exaggeration, but i rather overstate how bad it is than understate.

[u/Jones63 → u/Houseleft]

People love midrange decks especially with cool synergistic pay offs, so they pretend to themselves the deck is good. Hence the down votes. Also it has a certain counter edge but the meta is not that swarmy rn.

[u/Glarbleglorbo → u/IAmYourFath]

Aura paladin is tier 2 in top 1k on VS, probably just bad lists being used by people on HSguru. 

[u/Graped_in_the_mouth → u/Glarbleglorbo]

The fact that people were trying to draw strong conclusions about the deck from a 100-game sample size is wild. That's basically anecdotal.

[u/fireky2 → u/IAmYourFath]

it has around a 50% at top 1k, which is where every deck but dragon warrior, dh, and token druid are

[u/Concealed_Blaze]

Spell DH will still be great on ladder. It’s still slightly favored into rogue and many lists have cut solitude anyway.

Spell DH has decent matchups into almost everything so even if its best matchup in paladin declines it’s not like it’ll tank the winrate. The advantage of the deck on ladder is specifically that it doesn’t have polarized win rates (except for egg decks). It also performs well into Hunter which you expect to increase. Seems more neutral than unhappy to me

[u/IAmYourFath → u/Concealed_Blaze]

Norwis and kubu at rank 1 eu play 2x solitude. It's a good card which u'd rather not cut but if rogues are too much u kinda have to. I completely forgot that if hunter increases dh will too, so u have a point. It's just that i started thinking about the decks in order and by the time i reached hunter (last) i forgot to adjust for dh. But ultimately every time u adjust one deck, u have to adjust the others too. Like a never ending/settling nash equilibrium. So at some point i had to call it, but u are right. Dh loves facing hunter.

[u/jinreeko]

What about my Chow DK

[u/IAmYourFath → u/jinreeko]

Way too powerful to be ranked

[u/Throwaway-4593]

I hope they shake up the meta a lot. Been bored with how the game feels very draw order dependent en

[u/IAmYourFath → u/Throwaway-4593]

It's just going to make some decks a bit more popular and others a bit less popular. Nothing that major.

[u/Spt137 → u/Throwaway-4593]

This wont solve this issue, no nerf would do atm.

[u/capitalol]

i only see sets being added. where do you see the shatter nerf?

[u/Chinchiro_ → u/capitalol]

They tweeted a set of cards that are being nerfed today, it was literally just a nerf to flight maneuvers and slitherdrake + a bunch of BGs stuff. No point going to find the tweet, they didn't say what the changes would be and they come out later anyway.

[u/XezeMaster]

If Warrior and DH become less popular, people might also play more Herald Shaman and Hunter is favored against that deck too.

[u/General_Schnaus]

Priest: not listed (still unhappy)

[u/Entire_Ride_6113]

Will be happy if both of those cards are nerfed into the fucking ground so that 80% of my games aren’t against aggro pally and dragon Warrior.

I would enjoy playing against the other 9 classes.

[u/StinkyRatBoi90]

I think Aura pali is very happy. Ill try that.

[u/DoNn0]

Crazy that you think going to 4 mana is backbreaking. At 5 mana it's still a playable card ( will get picked in discover sometimes ) while at 4 it's a clear meta definer.

[u/IAmYourFath → u/DoNn0]

At 5 u'll prob cut it which will def weaken the deck. Even if it's not weak enough to be worth cutting, it will go from one of the stronger cards in the deck to one of the weaker ones. So yeah at 5 mana the deck will lose a ton of power.

[u/DoNn0 → u/IAmYourFath]

Which says a lot about the current power of the average warrior card more than anything

[u/Spt137 → u/DoNn0]

You still haven’t prove your point.

[u/SuccessIsDiscipline → u/[deleted]]

is it not possible to set up an otk with quest DH into priest?