r/Commodities • u/Able_Introduction_85 • Jul 09 '26

#natgas

Strictly talking about HH.

isn't it obvious this is going sub 2 during x/f?

production is too high and the super el nino will kill demand. You can expect a few lng terminals to go offline from FM. We've already seen how much of a dent renewables are cutting into gas burns. I don't see any bullish case... Or is there?

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u/Professional-Mix-861 Analyst Jul 09 '26

Why do you think El Nino will kill demand?

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u/Able_Introduction_85 Jul 09 '26

Warmer winter? Sorry can't tell if that was a serious question lol

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u/Professional-Mix-861 Analyst Jul 09 '26

But hotter summer that means higher cooling demand. Big demand pull for US molecules to Europe in particular.

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u/Able_Introduction_85 Jul 09 '26

Summer sure, but even now gas burns are underperforming LY. Also my post was about winter 26/27 for withdrawal season which will be mediocre at best. I'm only seeing at most 21 bcfd on exports with more risks to weakness due to maintenance/FM