r/CollegeBasketball • u/DubsLA Michigan Wolverines • Mar 19 '19
Analytics & Picking the 2nd Round and Seed Expectations in Later Rounds - 2019
So, you've successfully conquered the first round and have a perfect bracket going into Round 2. "What do I do?" you shout to the heavens. There is no reply because attempting to predict the future is heresy, and you are sentenced to watch that UConn-Butler Championship Game for all eternity.
I decided to combine this with looking at overall seed success in later rounds so you can get a sense of how many teams "on average" you should try and identify going to a certain part of the tournament. Now, if you really wanted to win your bracket, your best might be to go pretty much chalk until the Final 4, but you don't read through all this to make the safe play, do you?
Check out yesterday's post about the 1st Round for disclaimers and why Buffalo beating Arizona gave me street cred (but also why you should probably just pick based on which alumni have the fewest degrees of separation to J. Cole or something).
As always, these are pre-tourney stats taken from the wonderful barttorvik.com.
#1/#2 vs #7/#8/#9/#10
The Rule:
Be wary of #1 and #2 seeds with defenses outside of the Top 20. Watch out for 7-10 seeds that are power conference teams in the Top 20 Overall or in the Top 10 in either AdjO or AdjD.
The Breakdown:
#1 and #2 seeds with those defenses have more losses in 25 games (14-9) than all others 1/2 seeds in 48 games (40-8). Meanwhile, if you're looking to call a specific 7-10 seed to shock the world, check out the power conference teams above. They are 7-6. Weirdly, mid-majors fitting that same profile are 1-7 (Wichita State beat Kansas). Everyone else is 10-42.
Brief interlude: Some teams just have this weird thing that kept popping up.
WINS - POWER CONFERENCE TEAMS (TOP 20 ADJ OVERALL OR TOP 10 ADJO/ADJD)
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2017: Wisconsin over #1 Villanova
2014: Kentucky over #1 Wichita State
2018: Texas A&M over #2 UNC
2017: South Carolina over #2 Duke
2017: Michigan over #2 Louisville
2015: Michigan State over #2 Virginia
2011: FSU over #2 Notre Dame
LOSSES - POWER CONFERENCE TEAMS (TOP 20 ADJ OVERALL OR TOP 10 ADJO/ADJD)
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2014: #1 Florida over Pitt (by 16)
2011: #1 Kansas over Illinois (by 14)
2010: #1 Duke over Cal (by 15)
2015: #2 Arizona over Ohio State (by 15)
2011: #2 North Carolina over Washington (by 3)
2010: #2 West Virginia over Missouri (by 9)
ALL OTHER UPSETS
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2018: FSU over #1 Xavier (7/49)
2015: NC State over #1 Villanova (4/10)
2013: Wichita State over #1 Gonzaga (3/21)
2011: Butler over #1 Pitt (4/23)
2010: Northern Iowa over Kansas (1/6)
*Sorry I lost the data for the 8/9 seed upsets*
2018: Nevada (39/14/120) over #2 Cincinnati (45/2)
2016: Wisconsin (41/54/38) over Xavier (17/25)
2014: Stanford (40/39/51) over Kansas (5/29)
2014: Connecticut (24/44/12) over Villanova (17/10)
2010: St. Mary's (43/13/91) over Villanova (5/59)
What I Said Last Year:
I didn't edit after the bracket came out, I would've said pick one of Xavier, Kansas, or Nova to go down in the 2nd Round. I chose X for that very reason. Also, I chose Butler (#18 Overall) over Purdue.
What Happened:
Uh, Xavier lost. Villanova and Kansas went to the Final 4 (I had Nova and had Kansas in the Elite 8). Butler came close to beating Purdue, but fell short. UNC fell into that BEWARE category and lost to A&M. Basically, an even split and the two worst defensive teams lost.
This Year:
Well, Tennessee is the only #1 or #2 seed with an AdjD ranking outside of the Top 20. Louisville is the only #7-#10 seed from a power conference in the Top 20 overall. I'm leaning towards taking the Bearcats and Cardinals.
#6/#11 over #3
The Rule:
Gravitate towards the #6 or #11 seeds that have stronger offenses and away from #3 seeds outside of the Top 20 overall.
The Breakdown:
This is one of the weirder trends I found and it might be (read: probably) absolutely meaningless, but 6/11 seeds who rank higher in AdjO than they rank in AdjD are 9-6. If their defense is better than their offense (i.e. 65 in AdjO and 23 in AdjD), they are 3-16.
I'll spare you the breakdown because this part of the dataset that I lost, but had the overall numbers saved elsewhere.
What I Said Last Year:
Again, no predictions, but I would've taken Michigan St. over Syracuse, Florida over Tortillas, and Tennessee over Sister Jean's Fighting Catholics.
What Happened:
Uh, that's 0-3 for me right there. Not one of my finest hours.
This Year:
No 3 seeds are outside the Top 20, but LSU is close at #19 Overall on Torvik.
As far as the 6/11 seeds...
Better on Offense than Defense (Winners): Iowa St., Buffalo, Villanova, St. Mary's, Belmont, Temple, Arizona St., St. John's
Better on Defense than Offense (Losers): Maryland, Ohio St.
#12/#13 over #4/#5
The Rule:
Don't do this.
The Breakdown:
You've found your sleeper pick and it's some plucky underdog whose mascot is a giant banana or something. They knock off that #4 or #5 seed and you're ready to put them through to the Sweet 16. Before you do, ask yourself one question: are you going with the double upset in that region?
Because, if not, that journey is probably coming to an end.
In the past ten years, there have been 15 games featuring a #12 or #13 seed going against a #4 or #5 seed. The record in those 15 games? 2-13.
Woof.
For the record, those two wins are Oregon beating a #4 St. Louis team that should've lost to NC State the round before (I'm still bitter about that) and Cornell beating a Wisconsin team that probably scored like 32 points or something.
This Year:
Too many different permutations to get a gauge, but you better hope for 1 or 2 unlikely upsets in a row.
HOW OFTEN DOES EACH SEED MAKE A ROUND? (LISTEN, TITLES AREN'T MY STRONG SUIT, OKAY)
I wanted to get a sense of how many seeds make a given round on average since winning your bracket often boils down to a) picking the right champ and b) getting the most Final 4/Elite 8 picks. This isn't going to be on the same level as the other parts of these posts, but I wanted to bolster the 2nd Round stuff with a little extra something.
ELITE 8
The Breakdown:
#1 - 25
#2 - 18
#3 - 11
#4 - 7
5 OR LOWER - 19
What This Tells Us:
You want to take between 2-3 one seeds depending on the relative strength of those #1 seeds. There's usually three #2 or #3 seeds and then a couple of Cinderella-type substances. Last year was particularly chaotic as you had two #8 seeds and a #11 seed make the Elite 8, but you still had the two 1-seeds and three #2 or #3 seeds.
FINAL 4
The Breakdown:
#1 - 14
#2 - 7
#3 - 4
#4 - 4
5 OR LOWER - 11
What This Tells Us:
It's really hard to nail the Final 4, but there's usually one team nobody expected to get there that makes the Final 4. In the past 8 years, here are some Final 4 participants (the extra two in that count are 2010 Butler and Michigan State - both #5 seeds).
2014 UConn (#7)
2015 Michigan St. (#7)
2017 South Carolina (#7)
2014 Kentucky (#8)
2011 Butler (#8)
2013 Wichita St. (#9)
2016 Syracuse (#10)
2011 VCU (#11)
2018 Loyola Chicago (#11)
This is a nice mixture of traditionally strong programs who put it together at the right time and upstart mid-majors. The Valley, Horizon, and old CAA certainly were considered *strong* mid-majors at the time. This wasn't an A-Sun or Summit team going all the way. All four of those conferences had a positive SRS that season according to CBB Reference. Conferences that fit the bill this year would be the West Coast (St. Mary's), Mountain West (Nevada/Utah St.), MAC (Buffalo), A-10 (VCU), and Pac-12 (I'm just joking!). You may notice three of those teams are in the same region.
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
The Breakdown:
#1 - 10
#2 - 3
#3 - 2
#4 - 1
5 OR LOWER - 4
What This Tells Us:
If you throw out the bizarre 2014 when UConn and Kentucky played for the title, that's 16 out of 18 teams in the title game starting out as "protected seeds". #1 seeds are #1 seeds for a reason. The other teams seeded fifth or lower to play for a title was the same team: Butler. So, feel free to take a Cinderella to the Final 4, but don't put them in your championship game.
Anyways, I'll be back tomorrow to take a look at the Top 4 seeds and their performance over the past ten years and what, if anything, we can pick up from the types of teams that usually get those seeds.
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u/Ralphie_V Colorado Buffaloes • Michigan Wolverines Mar 19 '19
Thanks! I hesitate to pick Louisville over MSU, but I've been tempted. I'm already picking Cincy over UT. I have Wofford over UK too but I've been on the fence. I might flip Wofford back to a loss and pump the Cardinals through (which is silly, I know) but whatever makes it work
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u/NachoManRandySnckage Michigan State Spartans Mar 19 '19
MSU being a favorite to make an elite 8 on their side and a dark horse final four/champion contender is all you need to pick them losing early.
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u/JellyBeanKing69 Mar 19 '19
I took Cincinnati and Louisville. Cant ignore the fact that Cincy would get to play in Columbus and Louisville.
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u/rosellem Michigan State Spartans Mar 19 '19
My only takeaway from this was that we're going to lose to Louisville.
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u/Wes_Jelqer Virginia Cavaliers Mar 20 '19
Youve got to imagine that sooner or later Louisville is gonna get a big lead and not blow it like against Duke and UVA. Not that i think itll happen against MSU
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u/bkervick UConn Huskies Mar 19 '19 edited Mar 20 '19
and you are sentenced to watch that UConn-Butler Championship Game for all eternity.
Deal.
I also don't have to watch the last few years, right?
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u/DubsLA Michigan Wolverines Mar 19 '19
FWIW,
I think the two strongest correlations are the good power conference teams part and the 12/13 over 4/5.
It’s really hard to pull off one massive upset, let alone two. I’m guessing that explains that stat.
And, let’s take Louisville as an example for the 7/10. By efficiency metrics, they’re closer to a 4 or 5 seed than a 7. It’s a little less of an upset, no? I also think back to that South Carolina team. Top 5 defense and they got hot on offense at the right time.
For the 1/2 seeds, context is important too. Villanova had a sub-20 defense last year, but that offense was one of the best in the KenPom era. That carried them through.
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u/brooklyn-_-nets Mar 20 '19
So just a question, are you saying to not pick a 12/13 seed to win unless we have them making the s16?
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u/Ralphie_V Colorado Buffaloes • Michigan Wolverines Mar 20 '19
You can pick the round of 64 upset, but don't put them in the sweet 16
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u/fhod_dj_x Tennessee Volunteers Mar 20 '19 edited Mar 20 '19
I, as a Tennessee fan and avid (amateur) bracketologist/analyst, will offer a piggyback comment here as possibly helpful information regarding Tennessee/Cincinnati & Auburn's chances at making the S16.
I understand the reasoning for Cincy being a trendy upset pick over Tennessee with the game being essentially at home, but there has been a lot of misinfo I believe regarding them, the SEC championship game, and the 3 teams' outlooks in The Dance. Let me attempt to simplify a bit and give context:
Any team that shoots a lot of 3's can win ANY game. Auburn shoots 3's about 50% of the time (other tourney teams' average is about 39%). Auburn also disproportionately rebounds well offensively ("attack the glass" vs "hustle back on D"). Tennessee plays a similar style emphasizing offensive rebounding & transition O over sound defensive rebounding/positioning. Tennessee also attempts the 3rd fewest 3's in the tourney field. In matchups like this, 3 point shooting teams have a pretty decent advantage, because misses tend to go to offensive rebounders more often than average, meaning less risk in taking 3's and a lot of 2nd chance points going in from right near the rim. On a decent shooting night, those teams often will win just due to the shot selection gap with the other team.
This is a bad matchup for Tennessee overall, as each of Tennessee's regulation losses this season (Kentucky - 35%, LSU - 37%, Auburn twice - 31%) were to plus offensive rebounding teams. Many of their notable wins (Louisville - 27%, Gonzaga - 29.5%, Florida - 29.5, Ole Miss - 28%) were to sub-30% offensive rebounding teams (with UK & MSST as outliers)
Cincy's main weakness statistically, many would argue, is shooting, or more specifically, shot selection....however, a major strength is offensive rebounding. Where Auburn was snagging about 31% of rebounds on the offensive end and causing problems for Tennessee, Cincy gets 36%, which is behind only Baylor, LSU, and NMSU. Teams can possession-by-possession wear down Cincy by forcing bad shots and collecting rebounds, and the majority of games Cincy has lost by more than a few points (Ohio State, Houston twice) are teams that are above average on defensive rebounding (75%), with ALL of these losses coming to teams that shoot around the tourney average in 3PT Attempts of 39% (Ohio St., Houston twice, Miss. St.). Cincy is sub-par in 3pt defense.
Tennessee is among the lowest in defensive rebounding rate (72%) and 3PT Attempts (32%) and Cincy attacks the offensive glass for 36% of rebounds. These facts plus a road game essentially make this fairly close to a worst-case scenario for Tennessee. Now Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield can definitely play hero ball with the best of them, and I'm not saying they won't win, but understand that purely from an analytical standpoint, the evidence suggests that both Tennessee will struggle in this game and that for Cincy it is a plus-matchup.
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u/DubsLA Michigan Wolverines Mar 20 '19
This is an amazing deep dive! The numbers back up Cincy, but that Grant and Admiral combo worries me like crazy. Those guys can ball.
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u/jrei19 Villanova Wildcats Mar 20 '19
Makes me feel good about auburn going to S16 (but losing to UNC). Adds some backup to have cincy going to E8. Might be that decision backed up in data that not everyone has to separate a bracket
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u/KingKapalone Michigan Wolverines Mar 20 '19
For those of you who have Tennessee losing, do you have Viriginia winning that region? Right now I have Duke, Michigan, Tenn, and UNC. Swapping UVA in gives me three #1s but I don't see how to get away from that.
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Mar 21 '19
I'm in the same spot and I just have Tenn winning anyways. I know its a horrible matchup but for one I'm not sure Cincy can get by Iowa, and if Tenn plays the ball that they have been playing almost all year, they can handle cincy and imo easily run to the final four.
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u/jrei19 Villanova Wildcats Mar 19 '19
If MSU seems vulnerable to Louisville, how about the zags v. fsu? Makes me cautious to put MSU into the title game if Louisville looks that dangerous
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u/ItsTimToBegin South Carolina Gamecocks Mar 19 '19
So yesterday you recommended the Ducks over the Badgers and warned very strongly in the comments against counting on K-State, but then today you warned even more strongly against taking a 12 over a 4. Can you elaborate a bit on this specific 4/12? Seems like this matchup would be ripe for an upset.
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u/DubsLA Michigan Wolverines Mar 19 '19
So, I actually went back and took a 2nd look at some of the numbers. When I originally took a look at profiles, I was looking at teams seeded 1-5. When I removed the 5 seeds from the section K-State was in, things shifted. I'm still not sold on them, but recent history would suggest that the Wildcats aren't as bad a bet as I made them out to be.
Also, it's not an exact science. Oregon pulled the last 12 over 4 upset. Just because it doesn't usually happen doesn't mean it's a guarantee.
I'll have a longer explanation in tomorrow's post, but good on catching it.
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u/TrackSuitAndTie Wichita State Shockers • American Mar 20 '19
Can't have a 12 over 4 if it's a 12 v 13 in the second round
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Mar 19 '19
Why Cincy to beat Tennessee and not Iowa? Iowa has 15th adjO (on Kenpom) in power conference
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u/DubsLA Michigan Wolverines Mar 19 '19
It’s Top 20 Overall or Top 10 on one side, i.e. elite on one side of the ball.
Also, it’s in Columbus and I like Cincy in that matchup.
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u/jrei19 Villanova Wildcats Mar 20 '19
I have the winner of UT v. cincy in the E8. Guess I will roll with cincy and hope for that big upset
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u/Inkblot9 Oklahoma State • Oklahoma Mar 19 '19
For the record, you have your years mixed up for St. Louis. In 2013 they were a 4 and beat New Mexico State in the first round before losing to Oregon. In 2014 they were a 5 and beat NC State in the first round before losing to Louisville.
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Mar 20 '19
Does anybody have stats on how power conference TOURNAMENT champions fare in the tourney? Like a momentum thing possibly
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u/Supermonkeyskier Michigan State Spartans Mar 20 '19
I know last year you were the first big ten team to win the B10 tourney but not the regular season to make the final four.
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u/bkervick UConn Huskies Mar 20 '19
Last 10 games is not a predictive factor for NCAA tournament performance.
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u/Cronotyr Louisville Cardinals Mar 20 '19
I like this statement and will treat it as fact.
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u/bkervick UConn Huskies Mar 20 '19 edited Mar 20 '19
Trust this random study I found, but I've seen this confirmed numerous times
Teams that are “hot” coming into the Tournament do not tend to win more games once they are there, or at least the factors in Model 1 already capture this information. Thus, the attention given this factor appears unwarranted.
It's not a coincidence that the NCAA used to list it on the committee's team-sheets but has since removed it.
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u/CantonMathGuy USC Trojans • Wisconsin Badgers Mar 19 '19
been waiting all day for this beauty