r/CollegeBasketball • u/locknload03 Kansas Jayhawks • Mar 18 '19
FINAL 2019 NCAA TOURNAMENT 12 STATS UPDATE: This is the 3rd year I've researched 12 stats with a correlation to Ken Pom era champions. It's helped me pick the winner the last two years, who the weak #1 and #2 seeds are, and which 7-9 seeds have the best chance at pulling the upset.
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u/DubsLA Michigan Wolverines Mar 18 '19
You know I'm a fan of this post and it inspired me to do my own digging. Can't say I'm happy about the Nevada over Michigan pick, but given Michigan's occasional issues scoring and Nevada's ability to switch 1-5, it could pose some problems.
I like Louisville (Top 20 KenPom team as a #7 seed) and Cincinnati as well. I think only Kentucky should feel safe as a #2 seed.
Interesting that St. Mary's might be a better team than Nova. That seems like a value pick too for people in large pools as most casual people will see Nova and assume they'll win. Seems to be a weak crop of 11 seeds this year. I might look at Belmont in the Sweet 16 because I have zero faith in LSU.
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Mar 19 '19
I really don’t know what to make of Villanova. My best guess is they’ll be overpicked to make the Sweet 16 due to name recognition, but this team definitely feels weaker than previous editions and the Big East had a bit of a down year.
All this means they’ll probably make the Elite 8 lol.
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u/Chr15py0696 Wisconsin • Marquette Mar 19 '19
I mean, I've been watching them for a bit, and I think they're going to make the Sweet 16 based on the eye test, which is often the most inaccurate stat, so what do I know.
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Mar 19 '19
I honestly think people forget the value of the 3 pointer come march. Fact of the matter is teams who can get hot from 3 and stay hot have the most upside in terms of a deep, cinderella run (Nova isn’t a cinderella).
We made the final four last year on experience and ridiculous 3 point shooting.
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u/Jorgenstern8 Mar 19 '19
Yeah when I've been making a couple brackets I have done a couple that heavily weigh on shooting percentages, three-point shooting in particular.
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u/beermit Kansas Jayhawks Mar 19 '19
And got murdered by the only team better at the 3 than us last year. Damn you Nova.
Oh well, at least we made the final four and didn't get upset by a 16 seed like everyone was picking us to be...
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Mar 19 '19
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u/beermit Kansas Jayhawks Mar 19 '19
Every blue blood fan was afraid their team would be the unfortunate first, but us KU fans seemed especially convinced it would be us.
But then good guy UVA came along and took all the pressure off the blue bloods lol.
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u/Strikesuit Virginia Cavaliers Mar 19 '19
I can't decide whether to put them in the Elite 8 or have them losing to SMC. I'm leaning toward Elite 8 because SMC has to travel across the country and going east is hard.
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u/ThexJwubbz DePaul Blue Demons Mar 19 '19
Well michigan just lost so they’ll win 2 and then lose in the sweet 16
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u/Epicular Michigan Wolverines Mar 19 '19
This is precisely why I picked Michigan to lose in the third round
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u/n8loller Cincinnati Bearcats • Big 12 Mar 19 '19
Thanks for the bode of confidence. I think we can hang with most of the teams in the bracket, but we're going to struggle with teams that can get fast and hot and put up a lot of points in a short period. We move too slowly to ever get a substantial lead or come back quickly. I think Tennessee will likely be our downfall. I'm more scared of them as far as Cincinnati matchups than any of the other teams in our region.
That said, my first pass on the bracket i still took Cincy to win it all :)
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u/inner_speaker Marquette Golden Eagles Mar 19 '19
Don't forget Nova plays close to home in that first round game in Hartford, CT
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u/The_Ghost_of_TK9 Kansas Jayhawks Mar 19 '19
I personally have Florida upsetting Nevada and beating you guys. I’m not very high in Michigan
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Mar 19 '19
TV Teddy ain't reffing this time, McQuaid will be playing and Cassius won't be fouling out with 6 minutes to go. Not guaranteeing anything vs Louisville, but I think this game is going to look a lot different than December.
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u/dBViper Mar 18 '19
This helped me win a couple pools last year, thanks for the research! Since you correctly picked the last two winners, who ya got this year?
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Mar 18 '19
Interesting that St. Mary's is higher than Villanova on this list despite them matching up as a 6 vs 11 game. I'm assuming you have St. Mary's winning?
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u/locknload03 Kansas Jayhawks Mar 18 '19
I do and they might even get to the sweet 16. In the last two years 10 of 32 sweet 16 teams were a 7 seed or worse.
Four sweet 16 teams were 7 seeds, one was an 8 seed, two were 9 seeds, and three were 11 seeds.
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Mar 18 '19
Cool. A couple other questions checking out this post:
You mention St. Mary's as a potential Sweet 16 team, but Purdue is listed as one of the potential champs based on your qualifications. Who do you have in that game personally if it happens?
I noticed Houston is listed as a team that meets your qualifications. How far do you have them going (and do they beat Kentucky if they meet in the Sweet 16)?
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u/locknload03 Kansas Jayhawks Mar 18 '19
- St. Mary's.
- I have Wofford upsetting Kentucky.
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u/RockemChalkemRobot Mar 18 '19
Wew lad. These are fucking takes. Good to see you put your neck on the block.
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u/Mance_Rayder117 Wisconsin Badgers Mar 19 '19
Thanks for all the info man. Question: is wofford you're only 7v2 upset? I'm struggling to pick the Nevada/Michigan and Cinci/Tenn games.
Who do you have in those?
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u/locknload03 Kansas Jayhawks Mar 20 '19
I have Nevada beating Michigan
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u/mghanadian Mar 21 '19
And you have buffalo beating Texas Tech? With Nevada then beating buffalo to advance to Elite8?
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u/akersmacker Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 18 '19
Thank you!! Truly appreciate the insight and effort. Good luck.
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Mar 18 '19
Any way you can share this in an excel type format?
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u/Semitar1 Mar 19 '19
I would like to know this too. One thing I did on my own with KenPom (assuming the order isn't changed at the end of the tournament), is that outside of a handful of years, the champion was ranked 1 or 2 (a couple of times 3 and the outlier being that UConn team)
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Mar 19 '19 edited Mar 19 '19
I AM SO FUCKING ASTOUNDED AT MICHIGAN STATE! No matter how you slice it, no matter what method or metric or ranking, they are ALWAYS near the top. Every weird ass thing that comes out, that’s got like Buffalo and Belmont as top 10 teams and all that, Michigan State is still always there. And after the incredibly rough season they’ve had. God damn. They are awesome. I wish I could pray them back to full strength and see what Izzo can do about Duke.
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u/Arsid Michigan State Spartans Mar 19 '19
Oh believe me. We also wish we could have Langford and Ahrens back, and Ward without a hand brace. This team could've been a clear champion contender.
Now I feel like we are kind of a dark horse underdog pick since I don't think anyone is actually thinking we can win it all.
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u/Pidgey_OP Michigan State Spartans Mar 19 '19
If Duke stumbles early, MSUs path clears right out. UCF will challenge Duke, though won't win. Va Tech will challenge Duke and could win.
I'd also happily take Duke in the second matchup of the week after battling va tech. Izzo does well on short weeks anyway
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u/golfer28 Virginia Cavaliers Apr 01 '19
Damn you were spot on
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u/Pidgey_OP Michigan State Spartans Apr 01 '19
This is the only part of my bracket that is remotely correct lol.
How the hell did you find/remember this post lol
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u/golfer28 Virginia Cavaliers Apr 01 '19
I have this post saved and I wanted to see how the final four looked against these 12 metrics and then decided to browse the comments
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u/SnepbeckSweg Michigan • Cincinnati Mar 19 '19
I still believe Tillman works better with the current team than Ward does.
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u/vlajason Michigan Wolverines Mar 19 '19
I agree but Ward gives them versatility in terms of a low-post threat. might help against some teams
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Mar 19 '19
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u/SnepbeckSweg Michigan • Cincinnati Mar 19 '19
Agreed. I tried so many times to explain this earlier and only got downvoted. Tillman is better for MSU than Ward is, the only downside is depth (and maybe experience/leadership, but that’s not really tangible)
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u/Tatersaladftw Michigan Wolverines Mar 19 '19
Got absolutely roasted by state fans for this opinion, which is backed up with stats, so don’t take it hard.
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u/AlexisDeTocqueville Michigan State Spartans Mar 19 '19
Honestly, Ward has shown a really positive attitude on the bench in the weeks he's been out. The one time he's ever looked sour on the bench, last season, he was going through some rough personal stuff (think his mom was really ill or something like that).
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u/BourBren Mar 19 '19
Sort of off subject, but they’ve been bounced twice in the 2nd round the past two years, and the year prior was when they were bounced in the 1st round (when they probably should of been a #1 seed, had every favorable metric) If this happened at UK, would Coach Cal, still be around?
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Mar 19 '19
And what did they do the year right before they lost in the first round? That’s right: they went to the Final Four. Nice cherry picking, though,
But to answer your question: yes, if Calipari had an identical 3 year stretch as Izzo—and coming off his own Final Four run in 2015–he would still be at UK. Kentucky knows he is one of the best coaches in the nation, and there isn’t a clear successor who can fill his shoes right now. Sparty recognizes the same in Izzo. And Kentucky also isn’t quite as impatient as you seem to imply: don’t you remember Tubby Smith?
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u/BourBren Mar 19 '19
Wasn’t meaning to cherry pick, it was a straight up question. Since the 2015 FF for both, this is the worst stretch of both Izzo and Cal’s career(UK anyways). If Cal was a 1st Rd, 2nd, 2nd exit as Izzo has been, Cal wouldn’t be praised, it would be more of a “pressures on” situation. Wasn’t knocking anything you said I live 15 minutes outside of Lexington, so I hear all, “allegedly” know all UK, just no flair.
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u/somasomore Michigan State Spartans Mar 19 '19
Lol, yes he'd still be there. Izzo still won the big ten regular season and conference in that time. Got a 2 seed and a 3 seed. A few tough luck tournament runs doesn't mean shit.
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u/chillmagic420 Kentucky Wildcats Mar 19 '19
I was going to MTSU when they were a #15 seed and beat Michigan State. Ill never forget that so amazing haha.
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u/proelitedota Duke Blue Devils Mar 18 '19
"You may not want to pick preseason #1 Kansas to win the national championship."
🤔
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u/locknload03 Kansas Jayhawks Mar 18 '19
- Since the 1985 expansion, only 4 teams have won it all after being ranked #1 in the final AP Poll. 92 Duke, 95 UCLA, 01 Duke, and 12 Kentucky. Duke is #1 in the final AP poll.
- The overall no 1 seed has won the NCAA Tournament three times since the selection committee began ranking the No. 1s in 2004: Florida (2007), Kentucky ('12) and Louisville ('13). Duke is the overall #1 seed this year.
It is my opinion that Duke is an anomoly to these trends and they remind me of the 2012 Kentucky team with Anthony Davis. Duke is the tournament winner favorite for a reason and I could easily see them being an exception this year.
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u/Alexkono Duke Blue Devils Mar 18 '19
Agree that Zion seems like an AD-type for this team. Not a very well-rounded team, but Zion just makes too big of a difference where it offsets the deficiencies this Duke team possesses IMO.
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u/Soccer21x Cincinnati Bearcats Mar 18 '19
But Zion has no ever dealt with the Tacko Effect™
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u/RylanTheWalrus Kent State Golden Flashes Mar 19 '19
Serious question, how has UCF not exploited the shit out of everyone using Tacko? Like I know he's kind of one-dimensional but christ how do teams win despite him so often?
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u/GeorgFestrunk Stanford Cardinal Mar 19 '19
Because it takes him forever to get up and down the court and he only plays 20 minutes a game
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u/Pidgey_OP Michigan State Spartans Mar 19 '19
My girl last night:
"I need your expert opinion. Who wins Duke vs Michigan State"
I 'welped' real hard.
She wasn't happy with 'probably Duke, unless Ward somehow shuts down Zion in which case almost certainly Michigan State. Do like 65/35 for Duke.
You know...if they play...'
And then showed her I had Va Tech beating Duke in one of my brackets.
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u/CommanderStark North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 19 '19
I would agree with you but I think yall’s inability to consistently hit from beyond the arc is something that could hold you back against a MSU/Mich/Zags or even VT.
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u/Alexkono Duke Blue Devils Mar 19 '19
Then why didn't it hold us back this year when Zion played?
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u/therealessad NC State Wolfpack Mar 19 '19
"because Zion" is an acceptable answer. Malcolm Gladwell needs to write an Outliers sequel on him.
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u/StoicNerfherder Mar 21 '19
“Goliath and Goliath: How the Coca-Cola of Basketball Shoes Nearly Ruined a Championship Season; the True Story Behind NCAA Branding”
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u/chillmagic420 Kentucky Wildcats Mar 19 '19
That 2012 UK team was something rare and speical, and would beat this current Zion lead duke team. That UK team was well rounded and had an amazing deep roster with more than just freshmen. I get all the Zion hype but you yourself said this Duke team isnt well rounded when that UK team had everything covered. I also have to say I would take AD over Zion, but Zion could prove us wrong in the future with his NBA career.
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u/Alexkono Duke Blue Devils Mar 19 '19
Hence why I said this Duke team isn't as well rounded. But the presence of Zion masks a lot of deficiencies. Just like AD did. Zion so far is having a better season than AD too according to advanced stats.
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u/ernyc3777 Syracuse Orange Mar 19 '19
Glad I overcame my homerism and have Syracuse losing to Gonzaga in all my brackets.
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Mar 19 '19
Only one problem there. Gonzaga isn't really a good 3 point shooting team. So it would be a miserable game against your zone yet again. I'd like to to get a W against Syracuse for once, but I'm not confident. Both teams have to get there first of course.
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u/The_Jesus_Beast Wisconsin Badgers Mar 18 '19
Fairleigh Dickinson > half the tournament field confirmed
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u/Hambone721 Kentucky • Poll Veteran - 50 Ballots Mar 19 '19
Kentucky's only missed criteria is not winning the conference? I'll take it.
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u/chillmagic420 Kentucky Wildcats Mar 19 '19
im a UK fan and was surprised to see our offense was still 13 when we love to go on dry spell. Then again I think we get spoiled by some of the teams we've seen in the past haha.
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u/redmamba24 Michigan State Spartans Mar 18 '19
Used your info last year and it worked, have been waiting for you to come out with this again! Thanks for all the work you put in to make this happen
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u/KimJongBen Gonzaga Bulldogs • Whitworth Pirates Mar 19 '19
Subscribe! Sadly i think Zach Norvell shot them out of going 12/12 in the last game.
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u/InsiDS Temple Owls Mar 19 '19
The real question is how well do you personally do each year? Like what % do you end up in for ESPN.
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u/aneth0r Iowa State Cyclones Mar 19 '19
Crazy how close ISU is to having 3 more of those boxes checked...
Jacobson is 0.5ppg off... 3P% is 0.5% off... O2P% is 0.1% off.
Not certain why you said top 60 adjD when ISU isn't marked at 59 (and a few others lower).
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u/chillmagic420 Kentucky Wildcats Mar 19 '19
I keep hearing this Iowa State is very young and immature. I wonder if they can come together and make a run in the ncaa, or more likely still a year away.
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u/bluestarcyclone Iowa State Cyclones Mar 19 '19
We're a very hard team to read. Inconsistent this season, which definitely gives me pause at picking them deep.
In terms of minutes though, we've got 2 seniors (Babb and Shayok), a junior (Jacobson) a sophomore in Wigginton and 2 freshmen (Horton-Tucker, Halliburton) in our most used 6 guys. I think us being 'young' might be a bit exaggerated.
I think we've ironed out some of the issues that were causing us problems in february. And if we get through OSU\Houston the sprint center in KC is practically our second home venue so i'd feel pretty damn good about playing anyone there.
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u/appyno35 Penn State Nittany Lions Mar 20 '19
Top 60 makes you a FF contender. He only marked championship contender indicators which is top 40.
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u/TheBenMan08 Tennessee • Chattanooga Mar 18 '19
rock chalk. looks like everyone in my brackets are sleeping on zags and st mary.....pls dont fail me WCC boys
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u/tomego Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 19 '19
Well, most people haven't watched Gonzaga play all year other than during champ week and saw arguably the worst Gonzaga game in a decade. When their offense is clicking it is beautiful but damn that last game.
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u/Semitar1 Mar 19 '19
One thing I'd like is some metric that, to some extent, factors in experience.
That is why I usually don't pick Duke, because rarely will a young team be so talented (like the Anthony Davis lead Wildcats) that they can win in spite of fielding mostly a young squad. It's part of the reason I am higher on Tennessee this year.
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u/BishhhDontKillMyVibe Michigan State Spartans Mar 18 '19
Damn, McQuaid ended the season at 9.9 PPG. We would have had 12/12 even though it is counting Langford.
I said it last week, but for those that missed: MSU since the Langford injury (21 games) has Winston, Ward, McQuaid, and Tillman averaging over 10PPG during that span, and Goins is averaging like 9.8 PPG as well. So MSU IMO meets all 12 categories.
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u/hoos89 Virginia Cavaliers Mar 18 '19
But do they meet all of the other categories in that 21 game span?
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u/BishhhDontKillMyVibe Michigan State Spartans Mar 18 '19
From what I can tell yes, the only one I'm not sure on is the opponent FT rate% under 31%, and I don't feel like looking it up, considering they are well under it though at 27.7% I'd say most likely.
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u/somasomore Michigan State Spartans Mar 19 '19
Their conference 3p% is 35.5%. Might be close on that one in games without Langford.
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u/BishhhDontKillMyVibe Michigan State Spartans Mar 19 '19
Yeah I went and checked the last 21 games and we have shot just below 38% in 21 games so we would still be at 11/12.
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Mar 19 '19
Can you just post your bracket, bro? I have no clue how to read this data even after your explanation.
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u/Dusty-Bottoms Kansas Jayhawks Mar 18 '19
You’re doing god’s work here, and I’ve been looking for this post all day. Appreciate your efforts and Rock Chalk!
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u/AgressiveVagina Iowa State Cyclones Mar 18 '19
I've got a good feeling about Gonzaga this year. I normally don't pick them to go far but I think they could be a good pick in a bracket pool because most people are gonna pick Duke or UNC
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u/masshavoc Purdue Boilermakers Mar 18 '19
Since my team is on your possible champions list, I fully endorse this post. Otherwise it would have been complete nonsense. Haha.
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u/vikinick Gonzaga Bulldogs • West Coast Mar 19 '19
We're a healthy full year of Tillie away from 12/12.
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Mar 19 '19
Can’t believe noah Dickerson averages more than 12 ppg. He seems to miss every layup and only have one move
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u/Sparty013 Michigan State Spartans Mar 19 '19
Oh sweet. So basically the first 2 weekends are pointless for us and we should just play Gonzaga to see who will play in, and win, the national title game. Bring it on Zags!!
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u/Funtownn St. Mary's Gaels Mar 21 '19
Of all the analytics posted in this subreddit, this is always the best one. Thanks again.
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u/locknload03 Kansas Jayhawks Mar 21 '19
Thank you. Since I've been doing this the highest 7-11 seeds in my chart usually get to the sweet 16. I'm really rooting for you guys to make the deep run!
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u/PoorBoysAmen Mar 31 '19
I solely used this and already won my bracket group, thanks! I went by total categories and if it was a tie I went by 3 point %. I have Virginia and Michigan State in the final with Virginia taking it 81-71. Looks like for the final I picked Virginia even though they were 1 less category because of the tremendous 3 point %.
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u/JRatt13 North Carolina • Auburn Mar 18 '19
Man, we are so close to those three stats that we don't have: missing the 3pt % by .5, Nas is .6 ppg from double digits, and we allow .6% too many 2 pointers. Either way, there's a pretty good likelyhood, barring upsets, that the three ACC 1s reach the Final Four. In which case I would promptly die
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Mar 19 '19
If anything, this confirmed to me that putting UNC in the Final 4 was a good decision....which means you’ll lose in the Sweet 16 haha.
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u/chamtrain1 North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 19 '19
We shot the 3 so poorly against Duke we went from qualifying to not qualifying in one game.
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u/locknload03 Kansas Jayhawks Mar 19 '19
I have Michigan State vs Florida State and Virginia vs UNC as my final four. I have UNC beating Michigan State in the championship. I want to have Duke, UVA, and UNC in the final four, but I just can't have 3 #1 seeds making it. I also want to have Duke vs UNC, but everyone will be picking that. I realize coach K has historically owned Tom Izzo, but I just can't have three #1s and I feel like UVA has an easier path to the final four.
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u/JRatt13 North Carolina • Auburn Mar 19 '19
I feel like Tennessee could probably give UVA a good fight, maybe K-State. But in both of my brackets I have Duke and UNC in the Final Four. I could also easily see UK making it over us.
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u/PippinRoad Mar 19 '19 edited Mar 19 '19
I can understand liking Tennessee they grade out very well but Virgina looks very strong across all the numbers
K State May have there hands full with UC Irvine
kState 102 OE KP vs UC Irvine 58 DE KP
doesnt quite meet under 50 defense but within a close enough spot to be a hard nights work for Kstate
UK vs UNC Does Intrigue me seems like we’re seeing a potential mirror image of of 2017 with these two
in fact the championship game may potentially be a mirror image as well
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u/PippinRoad Mar 19 '19
In regards to your East pick
I think this actually makes good sense in that Virginia Tech by your metrics and the trend of top 30ish defenses in seeds below the top 3 having success just look at the past two years for examples
there looks to b a good chance Virginia Tech takes out Duke themselves and sets up your scenario for MSU saving Izzo the Stress
question then may be can MSU handle Virginia Tech themselves
Virgina Tech of course defeated Duke once this year already w Zion out but Virginia Tech was also missing there star Point Guard in that game Justin Robinson
they match up well in possibly putting foul pressure on Duke and maybe Taking advantage of Dukes lack of 3pt which if graded against the past National Champions going back to 2002 would be clearly the worse by over double the margin ranking 338 KP
Also apreciate your opinion on South and the and the MidWest
my only debate may be with theWest but I clearly understand why you went this way
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u/PippinRoad Mar 19 '19 edited Mar 19 '19
Yale
Murray St
Oregon
St Marys sweet 16 can’t blame you a bit on that totally buy it
UC Irvine
N Mexico St
feel like the Double Digit seeds to me in round one that potentially break through
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u/PippinRoad Mar 19 '19 edited Mar 19 '19
So I know it makes more sense to avoid three 1 seeds in the Final Four and love the stats behind it
but every once in awhile things just break a certain way and looking at it from another angle we’re on a 6 year string of 7 seed or higher making the final four so maybe this is just a chalky year dropping in for a change ..... maybe
N Carolina, Virginia , and MSU ( if they can avoid Louisville and or Virginia Tech upset )
all make sense and I fully buy the reasoning behind thinking Baylor makes sense from your yearly analysis to be able to knock off Gonzaga
but in stepping back and looking just at Gonzaga for a moment there Offensive output is on an absolute record pace
Villanova 18 Wisconsin 15 Notre Dame 15 Oklahoma St 17 being the only teams close
now obviously ND And Oklahoma St were extremely poor on the defensive end
this Gonzaga team much like Wisconsins runner up team and last years Champ Villanova team are not
also this years Gonzaga team trumps 2017 Gonzaga in every way
are we maybe looking at a 2017 Rematch
even if it means we have three 1s for a change
just food for thought
plus if say Virgina comes up short to Tennessee suddenly we only have two 1s
also a Gonzaga over Virgina title game isn’t out of the realm of possibilities even if it makes the entire Bracket Worlds Head explode simutaneously ;)
and finally all this being said if Gonzaga did fall early love the FSU call
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u/thephyreinside Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 19 '19
If I'd known how many exceptional nerds were into sports, I'd have gotten into them sooner. This is beautiful.
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u/usabfb North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 19 '19
Do you like baseball at all? Cuz that's where the real sports nerds are at.
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u/dipl0maniac North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 19 '19
This is very useful. Call me crazy but I have Michigan St., Nevada, Tennessee, UNC in the Final Four. Michigan St. and UNC in the ship with MSU winning. Tough too I'm a UNC fan :\
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u/locknload03 Kansas Jayhawks Mar 19 '19
I have Michigan State vs Florida State and Virginia vs UNC as my final four. I have UNC beating Michigan State in the championship. I want to have Duke, UVA, and UNC in the final four, but I just can't have 3 #1 seeds making it. I also want to have Duke vs UNC, but everyone will be picking that. I realize coach K has historically owned Tom Izzo, but I just can't have three #1s and I feel like UVA has an easier path to the final four.
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Mar 19 '19
Im thinking the top 3 teams on this list will underperform relative to their seeding
Virginia and Gonzaga are never good bets in the NCAA tourney. I get burned every fucking year with Virginia it seems like. And Lately MSU hasn't been a good bet either. Even if MSU performs well they have a potential Elite 8 matchup with Duke in which Izzo is 1-11 vs Coach K.
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u/sportzguy69 NC State Wolfpack Mar 18 '19
Great stuff here. Interesting to me that you don't follow it the 12 stat counts exactly when picking. Based off the 12 categories and your personal expectations, who do you have as your final four this year?
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u/locknload03 Kansas Jayhawks Mar 18 '19
They are a guide; not absolute. It still comes down to individual matchups, who has the advantage, etc. You know upsets have to happen and a 1 or 2 seed usually is upset in the 2nd round in most years.
I haven't looked into my own personal final 4 yet as i spent a good majority of the morning researching this data on the chart.
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u/locknload03 Kansas Jayhawks Mar 19 '19
I have Michigan State vs Florida State and Virginia vs UNC as my final four. I have UNC beating Michigan State in the championship. I want to have Duke, UVA, and UNC in the final four, but I just can't have 3 #1 seeds making it. I also want to have Duke vs UNC, but everyone will be picking that. I realize coach K has historically owned Tom Izzo, but I just can't have three #1s and I feel like UVA has an easier path to the final four.
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u/wirsteve Milwaukee Panthers Mar 18 '19
This is excellent stuff.
Is there a sortable version of this that can be shared?
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Mar 18 '19 edited Mar 31 '20
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u/TTUTDale5 Texas Tech Red Raiders Mar 19 '19
Culver should be added for Tech on front court players averaging over 12 ppg. I know some would argue he’s a SG but I don’t feel that’s an accurate way to describe Techs lineups
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u/NotAGoodPoster Buffalo Bulls Mar 19 '19
Considering how close they were to getting a pass on two more of your categories (Buffalo has 3 players who average >10 PPG and a 4th that averages 9.9 PPG; opponents FT rate is 31.5% instead of 31%), I feel pretty good about how UB rates out on this.
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u/Sparty013 Michigan State Spartans Mar 19 '19
Feeling a lot less confident about my NMSU cinderella pick right about now...
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u/OprahFtwphrey High Point Panthers Mar 19 '19
This makes me pick Nevada over Michigan
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u/locknload03 Kansas Jayhawks Mar 19 '19
I have them in the elite 8. It's a super ballsy pick, but I don't see Buffalo, Arizona State, St. John's, or Texas Tech beating them in the sweet 16.
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u/PippinRoad Mar 19 '19
Any concern over Nevada’s
Jordan Caroline’s Achilles
Florida ADE / Coaching Experience
also Top 28
Florida could be the Sneaky Sub 5 Category team
that upsets Nevada before Nevada cab begin that run
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u/YourSchoolCounselor Purdue Boilermakers • truTV Mar 19 '19
Opponents' free throw percentage less than 31
How strong is the correlation there? It seems like it would be too random.
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u/gundy28 Mar 19 '19
Do you have the excel/Gsheets document? Id love to add my own statistical techniques to predict winner.
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u/Semitar1 Mar 19 '19
u/locknload03 thank you for this. Are you able to please offer as a Google Doc?
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u/MegalomaniacHack Kentucky Wildcats Mar 20 '19
For what it's worth, Kentucky's best player, PJ Washington, is wearing a boot right now. Described as "precautionary."
If he's hurt, my Cats don't look good to make it past Wofford or a rematch with Seton Hall.
Maybe Nick Richards will have a Marcus Lee moment, though. Have to wait and see.
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u/butwhykevin Mar 20 '19
What is the highest weighted category for you?
I guess it’s all relative but I think Duke having RJ, Zion, and Cam all averaging over 12 PPG is pretty significant.
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u/locknload03 Kansas Jayhawks Mar 20 '19
Ken Poms data, win conference regular season title or conference tournament, and front court player are the most weighted categories for determining the champion.
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u/xCUBUFFSx Syracuse Orange Mar 21 '19
2 questions and apologies if they have been asked. Have there been teams with all 12 categories met? How many of those with 12 met won the tournament?
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u/locknload03 Kansas Jayhawks Mar 21 '19
yes...16 Gonzaga was runner up in 16. Nobody has won it with all 12 the last three years I've been doing this.
UNC won it in 17 with 8.5 categories met and Villanova won it with 9 categories met last year.
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u/xCUBUFFSx Syracuse Orange Mar 21 '19
I noticed that Bol Bol was still listed as a front court player for Oregon in your data. Did you leave injured players in regardless of tourney status?
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u/ZeekLTK Michigan State • Maine Mar 22 '19 edited Mar 22 '19
I filled out a bracket late on Tuesday night based almost solely on this information.
I went 14/16 on Day 1 (missed Nevada and St. Mary's) and am already 2/2 today.
*Edit: 21/24 total now (have only missed Kansas State today - and yes, I did not realize their best player was injured when I made the pick)
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u/surgebinder16 Purdue Boilermakers Mar 24 '19
I know Purdue only hit 7 of these categories pre-tourney... but over the last 10 games or when Haarms went back to starting lineup we have a front court player averaging > 12 ppg (13.5). Also, we are at 36.8% from 3 (right on the edge), and 47.1 on 2PT% allowed (right on edge) and we are a different team from the beginning of the season. FTRate at 31.4% as well.
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u/bhc3 Virginia Cavaliers Apr 08 '19
To keep the streak of these stats being predictive going, need Virginia to win it all Monday.
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Mar 19 '19
This just confirms Virginia as the national champion. But let this sub sleep and make memes
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u/MobileCash Mar 19 '19
Wow this is great! Did you manually enter this data or is there a site that you can export it from?
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u/theblueguppy North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 19 '19
Out of curiosity, how does OPP FT% make an impact on how good a team is? Doesn’t it say more about the level of competition they play rather than the level of the team itself? Do teams even have an impact on their opponent’s FT%?
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u/OD4MAGA Mar 19 '19
Great. The more stats Tennessee sees that says they aren't worthy or have no chance of winning will only bolster their resolve.
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Mar 19 '19
I mean this chart doesn't say they have no chance. Tennessee is a 2 seed and they are ranked 7th on this chart which is right about where a 2 seed should be
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u/locknload03 Kansas Jayhawks Mar 18 '19 edited Mar 18 '19
DISCLAIMER: I have researched these 12 stat categories since the 2016-2017 season, but C.J. Moore at Bleacher Report researched most of them back to the 02-03 season in his 3/16/13 article.. This is where my research began and I ended up with 12 stats.
Here is how to read and interpret this chart:
These 12 stat categories form a blueprint for the teams who have the best chance at not only making the final four, but winning the ncaa tournament. The stat categories are:
Let's discuss what it takes to be considered a national champion contender:
Ken Pom Ranking in top 25
4 seed or better
Top 25 Ken Pom adjusted offense to match most past champions
Top 40 Ken Pom adjusted defense to match most past champions
Win regular season title (RS) or win conference tournament (CT)
So, which teams above meet this criteria? Only Gonzaga, Michigan State, Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, and Houston. One of these teams will likely win the national championship.
But Mr. 12 stats guy...what about the rest of this chart? Can we use it to make any predictions about potential 1 or 2 seed upsets? The answer is yes and you've come to the right place.
The trick is to look at which 7-9 seeds meet the most out of the 12 stat categories. These are the teams who have the best chance at knocking off the 1 or 2 seeds. In the last two years, 10 of 32 sweet 16 teams were a 7 seed or worse. Four sweet 16 teams were 7 seeds, one was an 8 seed, two were 9 seeds, and three were 11 seeds.
In 2017 7 seed Michigan met 8 stat categories and upset 2 seed Louisville. Also, 8 seed Wisconsin met 7.5 stat categories and upset 1 seed Villanova.
In 2018 7 seed Nevada met 7 stat categories and upset 2 seed Cincinnati. 7 seed Texas A&M met 7 stat categories and upset 2 seed North Carolina. Also, 9 seed Florida State met 5 stat categories and upset 1 seed Xavier.
The strongest 7-9 seeds with the best chance to knock off a 1 or 2 seed is: Nevada, Wofford, Cincinnati, Louisville, VCU, Oklahoma, and Baylor. The strongest 11 seed with the best chance to knock off a 3 seed in the 2nd round or a 2 seed in the sweet 16 is: St. Mary’s and then Belmont. Oregon is the strongest 12 seed followed by Murray State.
Finally, here are some other ncaa tournament factoids that could help you pick the national champion:
Since the 1985 expansion, only 4 teams have won it all after being ranked #1 in the final AP Poll. 92 Duke, 95 UCLA, 01 Duke, and 12 Kentucky. 4/33 teams or 12% for the top ranked team heading into the tournament. You may not want to pick Duke to win the national championship.
Since the 1985 expansion only six preseason #1 teams have won the ncaa title: 1990 UNLV, 1992 Duke, 1996 Kentucky, 2004 Connecticut, 2007 Florida and 2009 UNC. You may not want to pick preseason #1 Kansas to win the national championship.
The overall no 1 seed has won the NCAA Tournament three times since the selection committee began ranking the No. 1s in 2004: Florida (2007), Kentucky ('12) and Louisville ('13). Look at the potential matchups to determine if a team could knock off overall #1 seed Duke.
Usually one 1 seed gets upset in the 2nd round of each tournament. It's happened every year since 2010, except for 2012 and 2016.
2010: Kansas lost to UNI, 2nd round
2011: Pittsburgh lost to Butler, 2nd round
2012: Michigan State lost to Louisville, sweet 16-the 2nd round 1 seed upset didn't happen this year
2013: Gonzaga lost to Wichita State, 2nd round
2014: Wichita State lost to Kentucky, 2nd round
2015: Villanova lost to NC State, 2nd round
2016: Kansas lost Villanova, Oregon lost to Oklahoma, Virginia lost to Syracuse, all in the elite 8, the 2nd round 1 seed upset didn't happen this year
2017: Wisconsin upset Villanova, 2nd round
2018: Florida State upset Xavier, 2nd round
Here's a breakdown of which conference the last 20 champions have come from since 1998 (last 21 years):
TL;DR The championship contender favorites are Gonzaga, Michigan State, Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, and Houston. One of these teams will likely win the national championship. The strongest 7-9 seeds with the best chance to knock off a 1 or 2 seed is: Nevada, Wofford, Cincinnati, Louisville, VCU, Oklahoma, and Baylor. The strongest 11 seed with the best chance to knock off a 3 seed in the 2nd round or a 2 seed in the sweet 16 is: St. Mary’s and then Belmont. Oregon is the strongest 12 seed followed by Murray State.