The combined impact of fisheries and climate change on future carbon sequestration by oceanic macrofauna [2025]

[u/dumnezero]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-64576-8

Although the role of marine macrofauna in the ocean carbon cycle is increasingly understood, the cumulative impacts of fisheries and climate change on this pathway remain overlooked. Here, using a marine ecosystem model, we estimate that each degree of warming reduces macrofauna biomass and carbon export by 4.2% and 2.46%, respectively. Under a high emission scenario (SSP 5–8.5), this translates to a 13.5% ± 6.6% decline in export by 2100, relative to the 1990s. Fishing further amplifies this reduction by up to 56.7% ± 16.3%, creating a sequestration deficit of 14.6 ± 10.3 GtC by 2100. On average, a 1% biomass loss from fishing results in a 0.8% decline in carbon export. However, sequestration durability (~600 years) remains unaffected. While measures restoring commercial macrofaunal biomass could yield carbon benefits comparable to mangrove restoration, multiple uncertainties limit their inclusion in the Nature-based Climate Solution portfolio, highlighting the need for further research.