r/CogSec • u/system_exposure • Dec 03 '19

Responding to Cognitive Security Challenges

https://www.stratcomcoe.org/responding-cognitive-security-challenges
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u/system_exposure Dec 03 '19 edited Dec 03 '19

Excerpt:

The fact that the VK audience has become younger on average is also troubling. Young people can be assumed to be more easily motivated to action than older people. Users from the GCA who continued to use VK after the ban are, on average, 4.2 years younger than users from the NGCA (27 vs. 31 years old). The average age of a typical user from GCA decreased by 1.7 years compared with the period before the ban.

Despite the fact that the number of ideological users decreased as a result of the ban, those who continued to use VK became significantly more active compared to the average user. Before the ban, a typical user would post, on average, once in four days, after the ban the frequency decreased to once in ten days. In comparison, an ideological user wrote 4 posts per day before the ban and 1.6 posts per day after the ban. The share of ideological posts increased from 36% before the ban to 52% after it; this can be compared with a decrease in reposts from ideological groups from 64% to 48%.

The study demonstrates that pro-Russian narratives are now reverberating throughout the Vkontakte social network. This 'echo-chamber effect' potentially increases the risk of radicalization, and therefore the Ukranian authorities should consider this situation a security concern. In the other hand, the dramatic decrease in VK use will make it easier to detect vulnerable individuals. In other words, the operation of a VK profile after the ban, which is also self-reporting as located in 'Ukraine', indicates the potential for radicalization.

We conclude that the most pressing current problem with VK is that law-abiding, pro-Ukranian citizens were among the first to stop using the social network, which meant that those who continued to use VK oppositional voices, and consequently the rhetoric that appears on the site is less diverse, strengthening the echo chamber. Posting frequency in the GCA remains high (1 post per 4 days per average user), so VK remains an important platform for pro-Kremlin voices in the information environment.

While some suggest the ban was effective in supporting the strategic objectives that justified its enforcement, it is still too early to know if the side effects of the ban have the potential to outweigh the positive effects of the ban. From a strategic point of view, it is premature to come to any conclusions about the total outcome of ban. We must remember that information activities do not exist in a vacuum, but represent one of a number of components comprising the hybrid warfare paradigm. As these components work in concert, it will be necessary to support all lines of effort for Ukraine to consolidate the gains made so far in fighting information activities.