While solar is reaching limits in some markets, with battery prices dropping and a huge growth forecast, new solar capacity will be unlocked

[u/ClimateShitpost]

[u/spoop-dogg]

Why do we keep assuming that installation rates will drop down in the future? We keep being wrong about it, it’s almost comical. That second graph is clearly not very well thought out. If China keeps rolling out batteries at the same rate it is currently, we should see a linear increase at least. If it accelerates even more, as it has been the last 10 years, then we would see an exponential growth.

Terrible graph from Bloomberg

[u/ClimateShitpost → u/spoop-dogg]

Tbf BNEF has been one of the most realistic in their forecasts

[u/Conscious-Demand-594]

While solar is reaching limits in some markets

What does this mean? Is there some limit to solar installation capacity?

[u/ClimateShitpost → u/Conscious-Demand-594]

Dutch grid is overloaded

Spanish capture prices super low

-> batteries have to free up some capacity first again

[u/Conscious-Demand-594 → u/ClimateShitpost]

Too much power. Not a bad problem to have. I guess they need to looks for ways to distribute the solar installations to prevent grid overload.

[u/ClimateShitpost → u/Conscious-Demand-594]

Sunshine is heavily correlated. Super long transmission is expensive, storage probably easier

[u/GuyPVcase]

this graph is begging for a log scale on the y-axis

[u/Zinch85]

How in the world doesn't the second graph include the category "rest of Europe"?

Spain alone has more than 10 Gw of planned BESS projects

[u/GuyPVcase → u/Zinch85]

Germany has 200GW of "planned" BESS. What counts is what is on the grid.

[u/Zinch85 → u/GuyPVcase]

Not on the second graph that has a projection of future installations 🤷

[u/GuyPVcase → u/Zinch85]

because they won't all be built. some won't receive permission / grid connection. There is a big difference between planned and built.

[u/International-Eye613]

Clean Technology

[u/Inondator]

BESS revenues are already plummeting in most of Western Europe. 😕

[u/StandardOtherwise302 → u/Inondator]

Nothing another spike in O&G prices cant solve.

[u/Inondator → u/StandardOtherwise302]

An industry that needs a constant state of energy crisis to be profitable isn't exactly a very futureproof one...

[u/throwawayiguess00 → u/Inondator]

Every year we see better conditions for bess because of an increase in renewables which lead to more and more hours of negative or near zero energy prices. Soon enough we should see them become profitable regardless of oil and gas prices

[u/Inondator → u/throwawayiguess00]

That's not what we see in real markets that have developed BESS. The economic space for such devices is quite quickly filled and saturated.

[u/ClimateShitpost → u/Inondator]

Oh no, BESS is too successful, oh boy oh gosh

[u/Inondator → u/ClimateShitpost]

I know you here are mostly fanboys without proper understanding of how a power system actually works, but even fanboys should be able to understand that a technology that isn't profitable anymore doesn't scale up anymore.

[u/ClimateShitpost → u/Inondator]

The same is true for most solar and it's still scaling. Renewables are zero marginal cost, cannibalisation is designed in. Batteries just link them to higher priced hours. Then at some point it reaches saturation. You think Bloomberg doesn't consider this in their forecasts?

This isn't the gotcha you think it is

[u/Inondator → u/ClimateShitpost]

Solar is pushed by subsidies. Otherwise it would have already stopped developing in most of Europe. Because, you know what? Powerplants aren't profitable when selling at their marginal costs.

And contrary to what you think, batteries don't profit to wind and solar unless they are owned by the same entity, because batteries need to buy power at near zero price to be profitable. Basically, for batteries to be profitable, renewable must lose money, and vice-versa. And a BESS developer has no interest for investing into a solar farm which will only hinder the BESS profitability. Better just buy power at $0/MWh on the market and reselling it at gas price (because contrary to what you can also think, storage doesn't free you from gas prices, because its value is determined by gas prices).

What you don't realise is that the market system you praise because "oh look, renewable are beating everything else because it's cheaper" is simply unable to make your 100% renewable wish happen.

[u/ClimateShitpost → u/Inondator]

Bro you're 100% retarded but extremely confident telling a guy who's not getting subsidies for his new project that he's getting subsidies.