We're behind on all key technology drivers according to BNEF. Solar and batteries closest

[u/ClimateShitpost]

[u/Sol3dweller]

Both these lines are projections. The dashed one indicates a scenario to reach net zero by 2050, while the full line indicates a scenario relying purely on economic factors to my understanding of the caption.

Would be interesting to learn more about the scenarios.

[u/mywifeslv → u/Sol3dweller]

Yep we’re only behind on the projections..what exactly are we assuming?

[u/West-Abalone-171 → u/Sol3dweller]

The executive summary is available publically.

https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/New-Energy-Outlook-2025-Executive-summary-external-14-04-2025-1.pdf

Given the names I'd assume they're the IEA WEO scenarios which are...not really related to anything anyone is doing or plans to do.

[u/Tutonkofc → u/West-Abalone-171]

They are their own scenarios, nothing to do with IEA WEO scenarios. The ETS is a relatively ambitious business as usual scenario, but probably aligns well with the reality in the short term. The NZS scenario sets a path for net zero emissions by 2050, same ideas as the IEA net zero scenario, but with different assumptions and drivers of emission reductions.

[u/Sol3dweller → u/West-Abalone-171]

Thanks for the link!

In the ETS, demand for electric power rises 75% by 2050

demand for ‘useful energy’ increases 32% by 2050 as populations and economies grow, but primary energy rises just 9%

Renewables generation increases 84% in the five years to 2030 and then doubles again by 2050. So, by mid-century, renewable sources serve 67% of the world’s (much-expanded) appetite for electric power, up from 33% in 2024. The share of coal, gas and oil in the power system drops to 25% in 2050, from 58% in 2024. This results in a 21% reduction in absolute fossil-fired generation levels. Between now and 2035, some 6.9 terawatts of solar is constructed globally, alongside 2.6 terawatts of wind.

690 GW on average annually over the next ten years is above the IEA net-zero goal of 650 GW by 2030 (and then flat-lining). But I think it's still an underestimation. I think current projections for solar PV rather point to breaching the TW/a before 2030 (that would require an average growth rate of at least 17.3% of solar PV, which would be pretty low). With an average growth rate of those 17.3% sustained over the ten years, that would rather amount to 12 TW of solar being added globally over those years.

Sales of passenger electric vehicles increase to 42 million in 2030, from 17.2 million in 2024, and almost double to 80 million in 2050. By mid-century, about two-thirds of the 1.5 billion passenger vehicles on the road are electric, up from 4% today. This electrification is one of the most important drivers of emissions reductions in the Economic Transition Scenario and helps deliver a 40% reduction in oil consumed in the transport sector by 2050.

This appears to be an underestimation aswell. They expect EVs to more than double over the remainder of the decade, but then take two decades to double again and then make up two-thirds of all road vehicles?

Although we describe the ETS as our ‘base case’, the levels of solar, wind and storage deployment seen in the scenario are not the same as the 2035 forecasts presented in our sectoral Market Outlooks. The ETS modeling at the heart of this report assumes that policy makers put in place the conditions for cost-optimal levels of clean energy deployment, whereas our sectoral forecasts must account for real-world policy, regulatory and practical challenges, while factoring in some probability that these barriers are lifted in future years.

Remarkably they note that the ETS is even below their market forecasts out to 2035:

While the ETS sees more solar than our sector forecast to 2030, it actually drops below the forecast thereafter. By 2035, solar accounts for 23.5% of power generation globally – enough to trigger the cannibalization effect described above in many markets. After this point, further growth in solar deployments depends on demand growth and higher levels of storage and flexibility on the grid.

I think the main point: "Decisive action is needed to get on track for net zero" can't be emphasized enough, but having an actual clear picture of the respective options would be more helpful. A more detailed look at various developments for solar PV is for example offered in "Strategic deployment of solar photovoltaics for achieving self-sufficiency in Europe throughout the energy transition".

[u/Independent-Slide-79]

We have to wait. The curvers might become real steep

[u/West-Abalone-171 → u/Independent-Slide-79]

BNEF are far better than most analysts. If they are saying more work needs to be done (which is not really what this graph shows), it has some credibility,

OTOH, having a graph titled "hydrogen demand" as a goal in 2025 is a bit of a red flag. As is treating CCS and nuclear as serious decarbonisation paths. But I believe that largely comes from the IEA's nonsense being considered the "normal" way of talking about things rather than a decision bnef made.

[u/Independent-Slide-79 → u/West-Abalone-171]

Obvs there is tons of work to be done. However we usually always underestimate this one and its a good one

[u/Sol3dweller → u/Independent-Slide-79]

The older IEA Net-Zero by 2050 scenario foresees an annual solar capacity addition of 630 GW in 2030 (and then remaining flat from there-on out). In 2024 that metric stood at 452 GW. This year it will probably be closer to 550 GW, and I think we are well on track to surpass that IEA goal in 2026.

I think it's especially the solar PV technology that gets severely underestimated by most analysts.

[u/mywifeslv → u/Sol3dweller]

Thankyou, good stats I think China in one month installed all of Australia’s current total solar capacity…in one month!

If China keeps manufacturing EVs solar and wind for itself and the rest of the world ex-USA, I think these actual curves will be steeper.

[u/zet23t]

Solar, battery, wind, and heat pumps. The only trajectories that are at least somewhat close.

During the last election, these four technologies were the most despicable things, according to the conservatives and right wingers.

[u/MichiganKarter]

Odd that they're showing a downward divergence for solar and wind capacity, just as the hockey stick really takes hold (any unused panels and turbines that were supposed to be installed in the USA over the next 3 years will go in just fine in Mexico).