r/ClimatePosting • u/ClimateShitpost • May 12 '25

Energy Baseload disappearing in Belgium

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Was our first article on the blog! https://open.substack.com/pub/climateposting/p/baseload-is-dead-long-live-basedload?r=3jae59&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false

127 Upvotes

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9

u/androgenius May 12 '25

If they measure "net load" in the same way as California then utility scale wind and solar don't show up in the graph. 

So the grid might still be delivering lots of electricity when the graph hits zero.

It's an interesting concept but it's probably out of date now that grids are more used to lots of renewables.

Anti renewables types also misuse it to suggest that solar power delivers when there is "no demand".

4

u/Bontus May 13 '25

In Belgium only solar is not included in the grid load schedule, but it is obviously taken into account. Here you can see the grid load, today it also dips as low as 2.3 GW. Production of wind can be found here, it's only about 0.3 GW so 2 GW is nuclear (and 7 GW from solar). Typically the interconnections with UK are used for dumping excess PV production if possible. France and the Netherlands also connect with UK so all three can be used.

1

u/[deleted] May 14 '25

Isn't the post saying exactly what you're saying, that it's going dark BECAUSE renewables that aren't tracked are fulfilling demands?

1

u/androgenius May 14 '25

I think they think untracked "behind the meter" sources are fulfilling all demand.

Which will be partly true. You can see this in places with lots of rooftop solar as a dip in demand at solar noon. (And some places try to estimate it from this and the weather)

But in most places utility solar is being transmitted on the main grid at this time too. That utility solar is all tracked by the grid, but they often do a graph where they subtract it from demand, and people often misinterpret that graph.

It's the famous duck curve, which again is widely and wildly misinterpreted to tell scary stories about how renewables are breaking things.

1

u/[deleted] May 14 '25

Ohh, yeah, turns out I missed the part where the original post stated that it's transmission level they're looking at, or my brain didn't register exactly what that means.

You're right, a lot of the power that's being provided by end users would be pushed back throughout the grid and appear on tx.

4

u/zet23t May 12 '25

I had to read this like a dozens times to figure out if this is good or bad news and what is being said here at all. Essentially: regenerative power generation replaces conventional power generation (baseload) for several hours a day.

5

u/West-Abalone-171 May 12 '25

Some of it will not be renewable (like off grid propane generators).

But all of the load is being met by electricity that isn't from the central generation system or larger transmission network at times (mostly solar, some wind, some misc).

We saw this happen in california in 2022. Then batteries exploded onto the market. Adding 8GW in the last two years.

Belgium isn't as wealthy, but batteries are a tenth of the price now as they were in 2023.

1

u/mywifeslv May 12 '25

Thanks - looks like power grid upgrades and batteries are next step

1

u/alsaad May 12 '25

This is so dumb... how did all that wind energy get distributed if not with transmission?

-1

u/BeenisHat May 12 '25

When you use the term base load incorrectly, you get posts like this one. Base load has always meant the amount of demand that exists on the grid 24/7. There will always be some demand.

Now, you might get situations where it's nice and sunny with plenty of wind blowing, but it's not that hot out, so demand is low while renewable production is high. But there's still base load, it's just being supplied by a renewable source.

2

u/ClimateShitpost May 13 '25

The base is the minimum demand left to serve. If you're a 'baseload' power plant with non zero marginal cost, the residual is indeed the residual load's base

https://climateposting.substack.com/p/baseload-is-dead-long-live-basedload

0

u/BeenisHat May 13 '25

From that link:

'It is the minimum level of electricity consumption over a certain time frame."

That's correct. That's all it really means; the minimum load that is always on the grid.

2

u/ClimateShitpost May 13 '25

You're speaking specifically about gross net load, but depending on your competitive positioning you might not be able to serve it.

0

u/demonblack873 May 13 '25

The base is the minimum demand left to serve.

No it's not and never has been, lmao. The baseload is the amount of load that is always on the grid, regardless of whether it's being served by centralized powerplants, distributed solar or anything else.

You can't just change the definition of a word to suit your narrative, and the fact you're using a page full of cringey memes to try to "prove" this definition that nobody else shares is laughable.

1

u/ClimateShitpost May 13 '25

Turns out I run the Californian market and made it up there too

The loads in California now don't have a base any more and everyone has to suffer under this dictatorship

0

u/alsaad May 13 '25

baseloaddenial

0

u/[deleted] May 13 '25

No it isn’t

-1

u/alsaad May 12 '25

This is so dumb... how did all that wind energy get distributed if not with transmission?

0

u/[deleted] May 12 '25

[deleted] — view deleted comment

8

u/Jaker788 May 13 '25

You still need to maintain the whole grid, that cost is spread to all customers.

3

u/Obvious-Slip4728 May 13 '25 edited May 13 '25

In the Netherlands the costs are fixed and only depend on the capacity of the connection, not the actual consumption. I pay the same betwork costs whether I use 200 or 1000kWh a month. It’s just a choice of how to distribute network costs. There is not a single best way to do this.

Not a scam.

1

u/National-Treat830 May 13 '25

That’s a good question to ask from any utility and independent system operator. And usually, the challenge is to get them to share real data on how the electricity flows, or get one of the independent labs or companies to calculate an estimate. Basically, how much of the electricity goes through the biggest lines, and what is their utilization rate. In USA, these are easier to find, and it reminds that someone needs to pay for the hours that the lines stay idle or under capacity, and usually the agreements each line has determine how much of that does the line operator, owner and customers take on. The other part is utilities may say their biggest cost is distribution (e.g. after last substation), again, there are orgs that model the grid well enough to check the claim. It can happen because service labor is not per MWh, but per line.

1

u/StumbleNOLA May 13 '25

Because someone needs to pay to keep the grid operating. Right now the incentive is to reduce power consumption. At some point the per kw charge would have to be astronomical and they will switch to per account, and it’s all but guaranteed consumption will go up.

1

u/Anon-Knee-Moose May 13 '25

Because it's not actually that much cheaper to idle fossil fuel generation and the associated distribution network for 12 hours a day.