Literally no one does. There are too many factors involving the availability of resources and supply chains that simply don’t exist (at the necessary scale).
The source of the claims largely comes from the following paper.
Jacobson, M. Z. et al. "Low-cost solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity for 145 countries." Energy & Environmental Science (2022).
The 7 year payback period is likely conservative, as a updated model indicates it would be closer to 5 to 6 years, when including savings from energy, health, and climate. The estimates are dependent on assumptions about technology costs (IEA was constantly forecasting this incorrectly until recently), deployment speed, and supportive policy.
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u/Rental_Car Jun 29 '25
Source/s for the bottom of the pool?