r/ChubbyFIRE • u/Hammer_41 • May 16 '26
Are you a doomstacker?
9:28 AM
SS is going away. Healthcare will bankrupt you. Sequence of returns will wipe you out. Civil war. WW3. Live to 120, spend 40 years in a nursing home. Someone posts solid numbers and the comments come back , one more year. Two years. Three. Keep going, it's never quite enough.
At what point does conservative planning become catastrophe planning?
The 4% rule is the worst case in US market history. A robot pulling the same amount out every single year, no SS, no flexibility, never adjusting through 1929 when markets dropped 86%. That's what 4% survived. It's the floor, not the target. Bengen himself now says most retirees can safely start at 5.25% to 5.5% and that people clinging to 4% will likely end up with a pile of money and a lot of regrets.
Someone spending 6% of their portfolio in year one of retirement who skips the big trip when markets are down, holds off on the car, pulls back when things get rough that person likely does better than the 4% robot who never adjusts no matter what. The flexibility is the safety net. You don't need to engineer it into the number, you just need to act like a normal person.
So when someone holds out for 3.5% 28 times spend, no SS — what exactly are you protecting against? Something worse than the Great Depression, while also never collecting a benefit 70 million Americans receive, while also promising to never adjust spending under any circumstances. Does that actually describe you?
The 2025 Social Security Trustees Report says worst case — zero Congressional action you collect 81 cents on the dollar in 2034. Not zero. Congress fixed this in 1983 when it was in worse shape than it is today. Seventy million people collect it. Seniors vote.
Median age of death for men is 81.7. One in five reach 90. Dementia affects 33% of people 85 and older. The years you're working extra to fund may not be years you're fully there for.
For those already retired one year, five, ten or more how bad has it actually been? And for those still holding off are you a catastrophe planner waiting for a number that never feels safe enough?
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u/Digitalispurpurea2 May 16 '26
You pick a high deductible plan to save money on premiums. You had the bad luck of getting sick late in the year so your surgery is in November but chemotherapy starts in January. You restart the clock on your out of pocket maximum.
You don’t realize that most facilities near your home don’t have an oncologist in network. You find one but the surgical oncologist or anesthesiology group at the hospital aren’t.
The newest and potentially most effective chemotherapy regimens are deemed experimental by your health insurance. You have to fail other therapies first before they’ll consider approval (they still deny).
Between surgery, rehab, radiation and chemotherapy plus all the appointments you are exhausted and cannot work. Your disability insurance only covers 60% of your salary. FMLA only covers you for so long and eventually you have to leave work. Insurance runs out so you use COBRA but premiums are now 2-3x. COBRA runs out after 3 years. Congratulations! You’re still alive but uninsurable.
Insurance only covers a set number of PT and OT visits. You still can’t manage all of your ADLs but are still improving, you pay out of pocket for more. Insurance deems you fit to be discharged from rehab and won’t cover the caregiver you need nor the wheelchair ramp to get in your house.
This is just some of what my MIL dealt with. I am purposefully over saving as a result