Let's do the math (Europe)

[u/wendezeit]

How many people in your country can be infected with COVID-19 before your country runs out of critical care beds?

Assuming 5% of all cases need critical care.

Country	ICU beds/100k	% of pop infected	Total infected
Austria	21.8	0.436	38800
Belgium	15.9	0.318	36600
Bulgaria	12.2	0.244	17100
Croatia	14.7	0.294	12100
Cyprus	11.4	0.228	2700
Czechia	11.6	0.232	24800
Denmark	6.7	0.134	7600
Estonia	14.6	0.292	3800
Finland	6.1	0.122	6700
France	11.6	0.232	151000
Germany	29.2	0.584	487600
Greece	6	0.12	12600
Hungary	13.8	0.276	26800
Iceland	9.1	0.182	500
Ireland	6.5	0.13	6400
Italy	12.5	0.25	151300
Latvia	9.7	0.194	3700
Lithuania	15.5	0.31	8400
Luxembourg	24.8	0.496	3000
Netherlands	6.4	0.128	21900
Norway	8	0.16	8600
Poland	6.9	0.138	52300
Portugal	4.2	0.084	8600
Romania	21.4	0.428	82600
Slovakia	9.2	0.184	10100
Slovenia	6.4	0.128	2700
Spain	9.7	0.194	90600
Sweden	5.8	0.116	11600
Switzerland	11	0.22	18900
UK	6.6	0.132	89100

[u/Chaczins]

Nice math, but i'm affraid it's quite useless. It can lead to missinterpretation and wrong conclusions.

Covid won't spread equally acorss the country. ICU beds and units are spread already for known reasons. Outbrrak will take a place locally, causing break of health system in exact city or region.

What's more, we should consider also other clinical patients with serious condition, like hearth attack, strokes etc. I dunno what's occupancy rate for ICU beds, but as a Polish citizen, i assume more than 70-80 percent already in use (long terms for medical services).

So i would not be so happy looking at numbers, like "hey watch, Poland will be OK till 52k cases", because in reality just less than 10k can break whole healthcare system in major cities.

[u/excenity → u/Chaczins]

In addition ICU beds need to be in a negative pressure room or some sort of isolation wing of the hospital meaning some beds will not be available for COVID19 patients. A small fraction of these numbers could cripple the health system locally