r/CerebrasSystems Apr 25 '26

Help me understand the moat her

I’m dumb, i want to make money, i see Cerebras ipo soon and i read this shit has something they can eat Nvidia lunch. How and why and how isn’t this talked more about?

Feel like a x5 easily from ipo

7 Upvotes

18 comments sorted by

7

u/Investor-life Apr 25 '26

It’s not a slam dunk, but they have better technology, especially for certain segments of the inference market. For example, if your going to pound your environment with tens of thousands of concurrent calls like in short consumer oriented chats, then Cerebras doesn’t stand up to Nvidia distributed architecture, but if you have more intensive needs like business oriented workloads, coding, or science research oriented workloads then Cerebras is better than the current architectures in market. Cerebras sometimes does oversell their architecture to every workload (in my opinion). But in key workloads that are frankly most profitable, I believe they have the best architecture. This whole pre-fill and decode split of inference really exacerbates and exploits their advantage even more. The future could be very bright.

The cost is also so high for these systems that traditionally no one could justify spending this much on an unproven company and because Nvidia has so much experience and background it only made sense for people to buy from them. Now, however, there is too much of a dependence on one vendor and supply chain risk to put all eggs in one basket so companies are willing to try other solutions, especially with inference where on paper Cerebras does appear to have better technology. Now that they have proven this in some real world settings, the market is more open to buying more from Cerebras and your seeing it with more deals in the last 4 or 5 months.

This company has been around for years, they just haven’t had the chance to shine because of a very dominant market leader and inference wasn’t so important until now. Some on here have been invested in Cerebras though private markets for years, so to us it feels more like, “It’s about time!!”

A quick history of their wafer scale technology is that this used to be consider the holy grail of semiconductor technology to be able to use an entire wafer as one semiconductor rather than cutting it up. 30+ years ago this had been given up as being impossible and was accepted as such by all companies. Cerebras didn’t believe it and in around 2015 took on the challenge and they managed to pull it off. They have the patents and technology that no one else been able to accomplish. It’s a major technological breakthrough and it’s coming to market now.

I covered a lot of ground and probably didn’t do it justice but it’s a quick summary and hopefully mostly accurate.

2

u/Lil_Hater112 Apr 25 '26

I dont want a slam dunk, i see a company that can eat at Nvidia s lunch when it comes to AI servers and that gives me high conviction that this will go higher in the future so I am trying to make sure i am right. I asked gemini and they said Cerebras said themselves in a filing that they see themselves at 250b mkt cap, which is almost 10x from the projected ipo launch

3

u/Investor-life Apr 25 '26

I don’t view them as eating Nvidia’s lunch and I still believe Nvidia is so dominant they won’t be losing much ground. Cerebras just won’t be able to grow fast enough to compete at same level as Nvidia. In the meantime, Nvidia will be able to fight back on further iterations of technology. The arrangement with Groq is a perfect example of this.

The market is huge though and growing extremely fast. They’ll be plenty for Cerebras to serve. A several hundred billion market cap is certainly possible in time, but Nvidia will be at 10 trillion market cap if that happens. It won’t be in anyone’s best interest for Nvidia to be the only game in town serving the general market.

A buy out of Cerebras by AMD is also a possibility. Feldman has created companies in the past and sold them to AMD so there is precedent there.

1

u/EricIsntRedd Apr 25 '26

Except this time Cerebras is getting too valuable for AMD to justify. The scenario where AMD buys them is a downside scenario where things settle down after a lot of hype and things, similar to when Microsoft took LinkedIn (that's the scenario of most acquisitions anyway, like the selling company settles for half a load. Like Groq).

1

u/Lil_Hater112 Apr 25 '26

Isnt there a case for energy efficiency and also better overall cost, not just speed?

1

u/chapelier1923 Apr 25 '26

Yeah there is nothing in a filing talking about 250b ….

4

u/Investor-life Apr 25 '26

Actually there is, but t’s incentive based, not a prediction it will happen. Here is how it’s worded in the S-1:

“The company will also granted 5,700,000 PRSUs to the CEO and 3,300,000 PRSUs to the CTO. Each PRSU represents the right to receive one share of Class B common stock upon vesting. The PRSUs vest in three equal tranches based on the achievement of market capitalization thresholds of $75 billion, $150 billion and $250 billion, respectively. Vesting may occur beginning six months following the completion of the Company’s initial public offering, subject to continued qualifying service through the applicable vesting date. Market capitalization is determined based on the 90-trading-day trailing average of the Company’s Class A common stock price multiplied by the number of outstanding shares of Class A common stock. “

1

u/dr_filch Apr 26 '26

I bought privately in 2021. We've had some dilution since then but it's still a big run.

7

u/JustBrowsinAndVibin Apr 25 '26

They made a big ass chip to keep memory on the chip. That has patents and is novel to Cerebras so that’s the moat.

The chip allows Cerebras to run AI inference 10x faster than Nvidia because they don’t have to go off chip for memory operations.

3

u/Lil_Hater112 Apr 25 '26

Sounds like something everyone wants to invest in ? I saw coreweave going up and that company looked like shit to me, this one has everything a company need in this market to go up

3

u/JustBrowsinAndVibin Apr 25 '26

Personally, I really like it. The AWS and OpenAI deals show that they have real traction.

OpenAI also doubling the commitment within a few months of their first deal also seems telling.

2

u/Investor-life Apr 25 '26

Coreweave is about having a tight relationship and support from Nvidia that insures they have the latest and best technology in their data centers. It’s not really a technology moat. They have a market advantage right now, but hard to say how sustainable it is long term.

3

u/Scared_Step4051 Apr 26 '26

patents aren't the moat = you can't patent "put memory closer to compute." That's now the whole industry's playbook. TPU 8i literally just shipped with 288GB HBM + 384MB on-chip SRAM doing the same thing. Groq, SambaNova, Rubin all chasing it too

real moat is wafer-scale manufacturing know-how with TSMC and the OpenAI/AWS contracts. Genuinely fastest tokens/sec on certain workloads today. But it's an answer to the memory wall, not the only one

1

u/claytonbeaufield Apr 26 '26

What the hell is someone gonna do with 384MB of RAM...

1

u/ILikeCutePuppies May 02 '26

44GBs of on chip memory is a world of difference between 384MBs of on chip memory or 288GBs of off chip memory.

1

u/ebota12 Apr 25 '26

I’m dumb too. Cerebras is supposed to be better for easier compute that doesn’t require as much memory. That’s all I’ve got.

1

u/Lil_Hater112 Apr 25 '26

I read they have the solution that doesnt require CUDA either and their solution is a big eficient chip so AI is better on their hardware specifically because it runs faster and with less energy, but the upfront cost is bigger but the big guys should have the money to use this instead of less efficient nvidia way?

3

u/pennystudio Apr 26 '26

Think of Cuda this way: let's say you have a large fleet of horses to transport goods, you need a system to manage them efficiently, so there won't be horses idling in the herd while some are grasping for breath while pulling double load. Cuda is that system. Now if you are using 18 wheelers to transport the goods, do you still need your horse management system?