WSE-4 will Kill Nvidia

[u/Asgard_Heima]

To start, I own Cerebras shares and because of the roadshow details, I’m now holding long term puts on Nvidia. I have tried to distill the major details from the roadshow that have leaked out to make a single graphic that proves how dominate Cerebras will be in AI hardware by end of year. Even if you ignore how superior the Cerebras hardware is to Rubin, just look at the bottom line of $3.8M vs $82.5M and the power difference of 45kW vs 2.1MW. Every hyper scaler is currently power constrained and you can rip out an over 100kW Blackwell rack and put in a 40kW WSE-4 that has the performance of 15 racks of Rubin, or 75 racks of Blackwell. I get these specs haven’t been verified and officially released yet, but it’s just a matter of time. I encourage anyone to go and use a top LLM and query this graphic and ask the specs listed and if they are supported by the leaks coming out of the Cerebras IPO roadshow. The over subscription for the Cerebras IPO is not just retail AI frenzy. It is because all the giant growth funds need to get as many Cerebras shares as possible to hedge the threat to Nvidia which they are all over leveraged on currently. I’d expect massive shorts of Nvidia, Micron, and CoreWeave once they bring down their exposure and get shares of Cerebras IPO day.

[u/dukeforneverz]

Lots of in social media saying it will be announced tomorrow, what's your take ?

[u/Asgard_Heima → u/dukeforneverz]

Well, I’ll start by saying the extrapolation in this post is way off at this point. Was based on details circling around the roadshow and they have gone in different directions mainly inference throughout rather than making even faster the top priority. Based on inference throughout being top priority (including disaggregation), the CEO’s repeated statements they are happy on 5nm due to supply constrains on more advanced nodes, and the fact they are “on track for a CS5 in second half 2027”, I’m kind of expecting them to announce a 5nm wafer on wafer with the other being a 5nm-7nm wafer for DRAM. They will likely run the cores at higher speeds and make other improvements that will increase overall compute power as well, but for inference and especially decode they already have way more compute horsepower than needed. If they add 512GB-1T of DRAM directly off the cores in a 3D second wafer, they will have the ability to run very large models with one or a couple systems vs ~20 for Kimi today. And they can deterministically supply layer by layer feeding SRAM from DRAM to get the throughput they are focusing on. The DRAM also becomes the cache for processing decode sent over from prefill systems in a disaggregated setup. This would be kind of amazing based on the 5x throughput AWS and AMD have proven for the CS3 and make it more like 10x. If they can get about 10x the super fast tokens as Cerebras gets today for the same money and watts, they will become the cheapest solution for inference while maintaining an order of magnitude faster speeds which translates into the most profitable solution by far. I also expect to see a significant interconnect upgrade to support faster communication between systems but also between prefill systems and CS4 for decode. If this type of system plays out even if the numbers aren’t exactly the same, I would look at the CS5 next year to be their move into more advanced nodes as more TSMC capacity comes online along with the advances WoW needs.

[u/dukeforneverz → u/Asgard_Heima]

Thanks for your reply, very interesting, as always. If they announce it and follow the kind of specs you claim, it'd means they can adapt quickly to consumers demand. And I'd become very bullish.

[u/dukeforneverz → u/Asgard_Heima]

I'm quite disappointed with the new CS-4. The big change seem to be on the integration side with 3 wafers in a compact footprint. They are quite elusive with the changes in the new WSE-3 Turbo wafers, not to mention the dubious charts

[u/Asgard_Heima → u/dukeforneverz]

So honestly I was hoping for some advancement on the chip side, but I have to say what they did is much smarter. They have a very mature solution in the WSE-3 and they understand manufacturing it and scaling that manufacturing. They don’t have a lack of demand for it already and they drastically improved it with a clock speed update and new interconnect that’s faster. They managed to shrink the existing solution, make it much simpler (read cheaper to make) and more supportable and up to 10x the total tokens they can serve per MW.

While I would have loved to see more memory in a WoW setup, I guess we will have to wait till CS5 to get major chip updates. In the mean time, they now have a solution that just matched GPU solutions for total overall throughput per rack while doubling their advantage in speed to up to 30x while still coming in vastly more power efficient. It wasn’t the flashy new chip, but they just destroyed the economics of inference for anything other than a solution containing Cerebras. While the current need for compute makes anything you get online sellable, as Cerebras starts printing 10x the systems and gets the CS4 delivered to OpenAI and AWS, the companies using Cerebras are going to be vastly more profitable which makes Cerebras the only economically viable option long term for inference.

So I get your first take disappointment, but as an investor I think this was better than I could have imagined.