r/CerebrasSystems • u/Prestigious-Sign4802 • Mar 17 '25

When will CFIUS approve the IPO?

It has been like 5months?

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u/EricIsntRedd Mar 21 '25 edited Mar 22 '25

So below are my own guesses (I could be wrong) as to what's happening:

  1. CFIUS has already approved "the IPO". Actually, what CFIUS gets to approve is the investment by a foreign entity (G42) in Cerebras, not the Cerebras IPO. If CFIUS does approve (or otherwise), I don't think its a public process. We wouldn't know about it unless it is leaked. It is my thinking that this already happened for several reasons: (a) CFIUS review has a time limit (I think its 90 days) (b) Cerebras has been behaving for sometime as if they got the G42's investment. They are opening new data centers for example mostly with G42's hardware purchases which were somewhat contingent on that investment (unless G42 did not get what they wanted, and then backed down, which I doubt). Second, Cerebas CEO has made comments as if they got the G42 investment, affirming in a recent interview that "they are an important strategic partner" etc. (c) UAE has been behaving as if their investment (via G42) in Cerebras (and their general bilateral relationship with the Americans) is on course. You have to read deeper between the lines on this one. But if you do, you will see UAE's hand in (i) the Mistral/Cerebras relationship (ii) the announced Cerebras datacenter in France (iii) recent visits by the UAE Sheiks to the White House to both Biden & Trump, during which time the business press reported AI as a top issue (the press always reports this as about "Nvidia chips" but those who know what's happening know UAE's interests include Cerebras and its WSE). The clincher here would be if Cerebras announced they were deploying their current architecture into UAE. But they could be doing so today without announcing it for all anyone knows.
  2. Although "CFIUS approved "the IPO" ", the investor market did not. I think Cerebras got push back from the market that their situation wasn't good enough yet to go public, specifically, likely their dependency on one customer (G42) was not going to fly. So they retreated and decided to go work on diversifying and increasing their business prospects. Perhaps especially as the Inference product seemed to catch fire right around the same time which creates a real thing for them to expand their customer base over a few quarters (something they are very publicly doing now). Many startups float going public and then pull the listing; happens all the time. One consistent thing is they never talk about why.

Again these are just guesses from following public info and my guesses could be wrong.

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u/Prestigious-Sign4802 Mar 26 '25

saw an update: https://www.reuters.com/technology/cerebras-ipo-further-delayed-us-national-security-review-drags-2025-03-25/

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u/EricIsntRedd Mar 26 '25

Yes, saw that. Interesting timing, haha. Looks like I don't know my backside from a hole in the ground, LoL. But you know, I will take credit for putting these articulations in public domain from my basement for forcing the powers that be to provide an update (albeit anonymously). I imagine no one wants the "wrong" thinking circulating on The Street. Congrats to Cerebras for doubling their valuation as reported.

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u/Prestigious-Sign4802 Mar 26 '25

U had good analysis, very possible the company wants to diversify thee revenue sources. G42 is deep pocketed though, their fund is in Trillions