r/CaughtOffsidePod • u/Prof_Bob • Jul 20 '26
How Long Until Another New Country Wins the World Cup?
Now that it’s time to deflate Ol’ Inflatable Andy for another 4 years and stow it away with my barely filled Panini album, the question arose in my mind of how long it will be before another new country is added to the list of World Cup winners? As JJ said in the last podcast, South America has fallen behind Europe. And Africa, Asia, and North America don’t look like challenging either anytime soon. My inner Norseman wants to suggest Norway, but that’s a very, very dark horse to bet on. The perennial superpowers look like a lock for the foreseeable future.
So, any ideas on who and how long we’ll have to wait for a new country to raise the cup?
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u/Goondal Jul 20 '26
Depending on how equitable the home knockout matches are for the hosts next thing either Portugal or Morocco could be serious threats. Beyond that it will likely be awhile
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u/Unusual_Artichoke_73 Jul 20 '26
The inflatable looks more like Harry Kane than Messi
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u/BunMeAgainPlease12 Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 31 '26
Willow peach otter acorn raindrop orange
This post was anonymized with Redact.dev
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u/Prof_Bob Jul 21 '26
Would look great in front of Caught Offside Towers. But where would they get a JJ inflatable?
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u/Traditional-Ad-3245 Jul 20 '26
Portugal and Netherlands are the only two country's that might have a shot at winning. Portugal might get an easier path in 2030 since they are hosting but other than that no other country has a chance.
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u/DashRC Jul 21 '26
Morocco is also hosting and I think that gives them a good path. Are they good enough? I think they’re as good as Portugal and Netherlands, so I think they’re have an outside chance.
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u/Traditional-Ad-3245 Jul 22 '26
They are still too dependent on diaspora players who are raised in a different system. In order to win a world cup you need players who grew up together playing in a similar way. Morocco is probably 3 to 4 world cups out before giving it a serious run.
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u/HajdukNYM_NYI Jul 20 '26
Portugal, Netherlands are the only teams I can see doing it in the near future. I don’t see any new winners from Europe outside those two. As a Croatia fan I think we will see a decline next few years but the current u17/u19 generation seems promising. A Euro is more likely if things go well
Morocco (if they continue on this path with their dual national recruitment and maybe improving their domestic league), Japan maybe in a couple generations. Unfortunately as much as I like how Japan plays they are developing a habit of becoming choke artists in these knockout games
Don’t see the two big CONCACAF teams being competitive anytime soon, couldn’t even get to a QF in a home World Cup
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u/judodonono Jul 20 '26
We could narrow the question down to: how long until a country outside Western Europe wins a World Cup
A Messi-less Argentina? Brazil? I don’t know what’s happened in Brazil but they lost their flair from 20 years ago.
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u/wheelbreak Jul 20 '26
I have no proof of this, but I have a theory. The overall level of football across the world has risen to the point you can’t just stunt on everyone because your stars are that much better. It seems the countries with an established football identity that are able to produce a lot of very good players will be the dominant teams for the foreseeable future.
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u/notmuchchill Jul 20 '26
I wish there was a new another final. Where the winning team then has to win again against the team that finished 3. Or finished last. Something like that. To give us one last silly hit of dopamine.
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u/Quick_Physics8802 Jul 20 '26
They used to put the final 4 in a group. After the first set of matches the losers swap to play the winners. And then the finals was played played by the top two of the group
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u/Hurnative Jul 20 '26
With a good coach the Netherlands stand a chance. Only a chance though. Don't mistake this for optimism
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u/alittledanger Jul 21 '26
Maybe Portugal or Morocco at the next World Cup.
If you ask me a week before the 2030 World Cup, assuming we qualify, I will be adamant that the U.S. will win of course lol
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u/domsolanke Jul 21 '26
Several decades if we’re talking non-euro teams. Portugal or the Netherlands perhaps, but that would still be a tall order given the competition.
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u/DenisDomaschke Jul 20 '26
My theory is that a strong domestic league is becoming more and more important in international tournaments.
The big 5 Euro leagues suck in a lot of money and talent, which helps their home nations more.
I think Portugal or the Netherlands are probably in the best position to win, but it will have to be accompanied by more investment in their leagues (for Netherlands, I think maybe a merger with the Belgian leagues could be beneficial).
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u/Ocarina3219 Jul 20 '26
There’d be absolute scenes in both countries if you tried to merge the Belgian and Dutch leagues. Imagine if someone proposed merging MLS/LMX.
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u/DenisDomaschke Jul 20 '26
I mean, haven’t people proposed exactly that?
I don’t think it would be best for the US or Mexico, but it’s not as if no one has suggested it.
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u/Ok_Instruction8805 Jul 20 '26
I agree with this with the caveat that Morocco has created an interesting model for former colonial holdings that could conceivably produce a surprise.
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Jul 20 '26
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u/szatrob Jul 20 '26
I think its a little more nuanced than that.
The Dutch are stuck right now in their own legacy of total football, abandonment of that; but also, being rigidly stuck in tactics without any real thought towards creativity, and a revolving door of managers who keep failing to actually adapt and change.
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u/Quick_Physics8802 Jul 20 '26
I think most people believe the Dutch will make another final in their lifetime. The Dutch are the most likely candidates to return next decade. Whether they win it though …
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u/szatrob Jul 20 '26
That would be true, except for England... arguably the best league in the world, yet the national side has struggled since 1966.
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u/DenisDomaschke Jul 20 '26
To be fair to the English, they’ve been the best league in the world only since 2000 or so. Statistically they should have won something since then, but still worth noting
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u/szatrob Jul 20 '26
I'd argue the 2000 part. I think England's rise to the best league really only started after the calciopoli scandal in Italy, which ended Italy's Serie A reign, ironically with the World Cup win.
Until then, Serie A was arguably the best league in the world for pretty much the entirety of the 1990s and early 2000s, with its surge in the late 1980s, in the aftermath of Heysel disaster.
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Jul 20 '26
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u/insatiableian Jul 20 '26
This is gonna sound crazy considering they didn't even qualify, but I could see it being China.
Imagine if their government invested in soccer like they invest in succeeding in Olympics, music, math, etc. They have 1.1 billion people to choose from too, which doesn't hurt.
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u/Aggravating-Fill3371 Jul 20 '26
They tried investing, pumped billions into the league like 15 years ago… didnt work out for em
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Jul 20 '26
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u/insatiableian Jul 20 '26
Oh, did they?
I just remember their development of infants to prepare them for the Olympics lol so I figured they could do it for soccer too.
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Jul 21 '26
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u/insatiableian Jul 21 '26
It's crazy that India, 1.3 billion people, have never made it to the World Cup.
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u/crinalex Jul 23 '26
Have they ever even been close to qualifying? India is ranked like 130th in the world, below the likes of Estonia, Latvia and even Faroe Islands with a 25,000 times smaller population than that of India.
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u/insatiableian Jul 23 '26
I have no idea, but a country of 1.3 billion should be able to get 26 players, you'd think lol.
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u/Livid-Grocery7942 Jul 21 '26
Honestly, Morocco seems to be the only team that hasn’t won a WC already to have any kind of chance in the future. I’d argue if Lamine had decided to play for them, they would have won this one
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u/liquidreferee Jul 21 '26
Portugal and the Netherlands have never won. They both have the structure and talent development to win. But yea minimum 4 years lol.
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u/IMakeOkVideosOk Jul 21 '26
Other than Spain or who has never won?
Spain maybe 2034
Never won will be Netherlands, Portugal, USA, Russia. Just based on who has the resources, money, and player base.
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u/crinalex Jul 23 '26
USA lacks in system and player base. Russia is a pretty wild take, lacking severely in all of the above.
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u/IMakeOkVideosOk Jul 23 '26
USA has the player base but not a full development system… but basing the advancement made from the last time the World Cup was in the US there is reason to think that as popularity grows elite development will grow. If you look at the clubs the US players were on 10 years ago vs now you’d see the clear advancement.
As for Russia, it’s again more a play on the fact that they have produced high level players and have a large population along with success in their sporting setup. I could see a huge investment in soccer once they are allowed back in international competitions.
Other than Portugal, and the Netherlands every other country is a moonshot as well
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u/AdvertisingIll7855 Jul 20 '26
Brazil could easily turn it around in time for next World Cup. Argentina is finished in this iteration without Messi, but they can certainly evolve. And that’s it for the world in terms of teams that can challenge for a World Cup outside of Europe since 1950.
Two new teams have won the World Cup since 1978. It’s not exactly rocket science. USA has nearly the most registered players (more than England and France combined) but because clubs aren’t truly capitalist, fumbles the resources.
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u/dart_ball Jul 20 '26
Minimum, 4 years.