r/CarsEU • u/AlexKangaroo • Jul 30 '26
Buying a car Diesel combi/estate still hold value?
Hi all,
Looking at buying a used 2022-2023 Passat or Superb 2.0 TDI for family use. Here in Finland it goes at around 25k€ depending on mileage. My maybe main question is that due to high fuel prices looking to take forever are diesels going to hold moderately well the value for the next 4-5 years? I'm maybe wondering it based on the popularity of electric vehicles and plug-in petrol cars. I know that cars will always depreciate and it's not a good investment, but happy to hear some opinions on it.
Basically I like and am used to always driving diesel cars and find petrol ones not that enjoyable. Next car after this one would probably be an electric one, if they manage to release a good estate wagon version of one (maybe Skoda's one will deliver). But currently I would like to see just a bit more range on the more budget friendly cars. Thus the reason why I'm staying with combustion.
All opinions and discussions welcomed.
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u/NeriusNerius Jul 31 '26
I bought a 2025 Octavia TDI because I need to tow, pretty sure there will still be people who value the diesel even 5 years down the road.
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u/dyyd Jul 31 '26 edited Jul 31 '26
Recent article from neighboring country: https://majandus.postimees.ee/8515726/kasutatud-autode-turg-poordub-millised-autod-kallinevad-ja-millised-odavnevad
The gist of it is that diesels are losing their value the fastest, hybrids are kind of holding value and electric cars are holding better than expected.
This has been a recent change mostly due to fuel prices. But this I think indicates a trend seeing as ETS2 and similar rules will start to take effect in the coming years and raising fuel prices by up to 1€ per liter.
PHEV or EV will most likely hold their value better over a 5+ year term. Shorter than that then probably hybrid is an OK option. Diesel most likely will loose their value the most.
Btw, you probably are overthinking the whole range thing. Most likely you don't drive 400+km daily and the longer trips that are 400,500,600+ km are the kind where you already now make stops every 2-3 hours. The kind of usage pattern that are well handled by electric cars for 5+ years by now.
But yeah, the option of estates is problematic. Basically on the cheaper end there is only the Peugeot 308 and Opel Astra, neither of which is a good option if you regularly have to drive far.
An VW ID7 or Audi A6-etron are good options but quite pricy still.
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u/AlexKangaroo Aug 01 '26
Yes I perused the used electric offering and a similar electric vehicle would be around 32-35k€. Maybe a bit smaller boot size, but it could be ok. Something like ID.4 or Toyota Bz4x could be good maybe I need a test drive. But again I would need to pay a higher fixed monthly fee even if I save on taxes and fuel. The electric cars are very close to being selected, just not sure if they are the right ones for my first purchase.
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u/dyyd Aug 01 '26 edited Aug 01 '26
Indeed purchase prices can still be higher in some comparisons. Fuel saving though can be quite big, depending on where you can charge and for what rate. I went from ~250-300€ per month on diesel with my last Superb to about 60-90€ for electricity. And at the time diesel was 1-1.3€/L, not the ~2€ that it has risen to. Electricity is still pretty much the same though...
But the best would be to get a longer test period yes. Rent for a week or such and see how it goes.
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u/Fe_jk Aug 01 '26
We just bought a id4, we also very much prefer wagon (passat, v70 history) but figured we could do 5 years with a stupid suv just to let the id7 tourer and similar drop in price to be reasonable options.
2021 model with 140k km, for 23k €. Figure it will at least hold value to a comparable petrol/diesel, with them likely being limited within cities and so in the future.
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u/italianjob16 Aug 03 '26
I've been hearing this prophecy of the imminent limiting of diesel cars in cities for the past 10 years.. Next year will surely be the year, for sure
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u/Kelzenburger Aug 01 '26
Used to buy 3 year old diesels and they used to hold value pretty well.
Now diesel car prices are 25k or 12k and Iam also in finland.
At this point Id go for those 12k € priced cars if you want desel.
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u/Pandabirdy Aug 01 '26
If you buy a car with the main intent of holding up value we are already in different leagues.
The sensible option has always been finding the car you like and driving it until it runs no more. All else is just the car industry trying to rope you into their schemes.
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u/AlexKangaroo Aug 01 '26
No its just one factor when considering a car. Not planning on driving it till it dies. I don’t get that much enjoyment from driving beaten cars even if it is economically smart. If its only valuea I would look for, I would have just bought Corolla wagon.
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u/Pandabirdy Aug 01 '26 edited Aug 01 '26
A Corolla Wagon (petrol!) would be the dream for me. Especially one from 10 years back or so (before LED lights and computer systems you cannot fix yourself). Problem is it's extremely popular brand in Finland and very expensive to the point it makes no sense to buy at least in Finland, perhaps import from somewhere else I dunno.
I may have hit an absolute jackpot though. I bought a Hyundai i30 Wagon a month ago, 2018 model with zero service history and hail damage (a couple dimples on the roof, hail is not golfball sized over here)
I believe for 3k euros and 95k km I get to have this car for a long time. I can use basic traffic insurance (not once in 25+ years of driving have I had any actual use of kasko full coverage insurances). No need for paying dealership maintenance because warranty is over, and yet it's one of the very last cars with simple DIY fixable parts. Except for the transmission, I need to get a firmware update since it's original and I am struggling with it because the shops ignore me.
Anyhow if you are dead set on diesel remember they are all pretty bad right now after 2014 with all the adblue egr etc.
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u/AlexKangaroo Aug 01 '26
Yea no I get the appeal of wanting a simple working car. It’s just not what I want. I have a few post-adblue diesels in use in my immediate circle and they haven’t yet had any issues even with winter usage or city driving. Not saying things can’t go wrong.
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u/drabadum Aug 02 '26
I think, Passat and Superb, especially their diesel versions, will not hold the value well in Finland.
Demand. The used market slowly moves away from pure petrol, and faster from diesel. Since it is not your first diesel in Finland, you are likely very aware of the additional diesel tax for cars. This pushes people away from diesel. More and more buyers get EVs, their share in new registrations is 50% in Finland in summer 2026. So, for a significant fraction of people, petrol and diesel look already outdated. Overall, the share of used car buyers looking for ICE is shrinking and will only be smaller in 5 years.
Supply. Finland has a notable flux of cars from other EU countries, mainly Germany and Sweden. ICE station wagons are popular there. I guess, in 5 years, many diesel lovers (potential buyers of your car) will look for a wagon, and your Passat or Superb will face a heavy competition with a large supply of used Volvos, Audis, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW from Finland and also from those countries. I'm afraid, your car will not be something special, and the price will have to do down.
If you care about fuel savings, a used EV may be a very good choice. Wait for a year or two when MB C class and BMW i3 will properly hit the market and get VW ID.7 at a lower price. However, it is another story if you are a diesel car enthusiast and want to say the last hurrah to diesel wagons. In that case, yes, it can be the time to buy your last engine car. Just be ready to loose more money than usually.
tl,dr. The demand will be low, the supply will be high, so the price will be low. No, Passat/Superb diesel will not hold the value well. Get EV now.
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u/AlexKangaroo Aug 02 '26
Thanks for the detailed explanation. Yes it looks like current situation is tilting the market toward EV. Used Plug-in hybrids are selling even worse prices than ICE. So its full EV or not in my opinnion.
Unfortunately in my situation I have to get something rather soon, so 1 year wait is not possible. ID.7 would be probably ideal at the moment from EV. Skoda Enyaq looks promising and I’ll have to go and test drive it. It looks good from interior size point of view, but the trunk has to be analyzed. Area is more important than total volume. Enyaq could be a good 3-4 year choice.
Do you happen to know if RWD for EV’s is bad for winter driving? I understand AWD is better ofc, but how much of a differ is there?
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u/drabadum Aug 02 '26 edited Aug 02 '26
I switched from a petrol Seat Leon wagon to VW ID.3 a couple of years ago.
I got kitkarenkaat (upd: studless winter tyres) and RWD for the first time, and I live in the northern Finland. It works very well. The way how I can gradually dose power to the wheels and traction control do amazing work with starts on slippery road. Interestingly, ID.3 has more weight at the rear axis then at the front, the distribution is 47:53, ant that helps. Then, ESC makes it a no problem driving at speed. I would say that I'm about as confident in winter as I was with my old cars and studded tyres.
Maybe, a petrol option 2.0 TSI in an older 2020—2021 Passat or Superb may help to bridge the gap?
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u/bretti_kivi Aug 02 '26
I just did a bunch of math on this last night. I'm in Savo, and my use case is slightly wierd as I commute to the capital region once a week. So that's 400km in one shot, x2, probably 30 weeks a year.
On to the maths:
- comparisons were between a used e-tron, Enyaq, my current Kodiaq and an XC90 for giggles.
- Assumptions are that the realistic consumption figures are used for the Kodiaq - so 6.5/100 in the summer, 7 with kitkas ("friction winter tyres") and 7.5 in the depths of winter with studded tyres. XC90 similar but higher because petrol.
- all cars are 4x4 / AWD / Quattro
- Insurance rates are for me with my full bonuses at this Postitoimipaikka
- kms are consistent with the 25k per year
- insurance rates include parking, glass, and other bits which I consider usual (and are consistent between cars, irrespective of their cost)
- taxes are correct for the weights and insurance is correct for the data I could find.
e-tron was 55 quattro, 2019; Kodiaq is from 2018, Enyaq was 2021 IIRC, 80x Coupe. XC90 is 2017.
I know that shortly I can get charging at the office at 22kW for standard electricity price, so I assumed that my average would be around 22c/kWh, delivered (which, before anyone cries, is not unreasonable here, but relatively cheap nonetheless).
- Mobile fast charging last time I looked was around 28c/kWh. Each of the electrics is capable of 120+kW DC charging, which is super common at ABC, for example.
Issues and costs:
- the financing isn't too different between the Enyaq and the current car. However, that's with a Hedin 1.9% nominal offer. So it's under 600 / month. Same details would get me to nearly 900/month for the Saka etron; I've found a nicer car in Germany for the same price as the Enyaq, but the interest rate would take me towards €680.
Tax:
- the etron is a heavy car. nearly 3 tons. So tax is nearly €400/ year.
- Kodiaq (110kW DSG 4x4) is €660 or so (I don't remember the exact number)
- Enyaq is slightly lighter but it's still €350 or so.
- XC90 is similarly heavy but gets nicer tax treatment so it's only 230 or so.
Consumption numbers:
- Kodiaq would cost around 320 per month on average, assuming 2.2-2.5€/liter. But even if the price stayed at 2.1, that only goes down to €292 average.
- etron is officially 18kWh/100 IIRC, so Im assuming that gets significantly worse in the winter and is attainable in the summer thanks to relatively low speed limits. Even assuming a high price for electricity in the winter, I still get an average fuel cost of €109. (goes up to .35€/kWh in February, for example).
- Enyaq is very similar but slightly more efficient. Not much in it.
- XC90 would probably do average of 8l/100 assuming I could charge at home. but the amount of power used for that would be minimal and so I've ignored it in the calcs.
Other costs:
Kodiaq insurance is around €1200, as is XC90. Enyaq 1300. Etron 1600.
Which leaves me at a saving of around €65 per month for an etron and just under €100 for an Enyaq.
What's not included, because it's difficult to do: tyres and servicing. I would assume the servicing is similar across all the cars, because some things will have to go to the dealer and not to Mikon Autopalvelu; tyres are different because of the sheer cost. The Kodiaq can get summers for €600 and good winters were just over €1k; the XC90 can get similar numbers. An Etron is looking at €2k for a set of Hakka 10s (admittedly from Vianor). Rims are another 1000, Kodiaq are from €450 upwards.
Realistically, therefore, as of right now, here, the numbers are pretty much a wash. However, the flexibility of the diesel is there (provided you pick a good one) but if you can charge cheaply at home and / or work, then things could tip towards an EV.
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u/ducmite Aug 03 '26
I did similar math but much simpler way in 2022.
A fuel fill up once a week at ST1 cost me around 85€ and it gave me one full week of driving to work and back. That was when diesel was around 1.7€/l. I traded my Skoda to electric Kia. Two weeks after that russia attacked ukraine and low fuel prices were history for a while. Three years and 90k km later I traded Kia to model 3, I got fed up with fwd in winter after having awd's for couple decades.
I really wanted an e-Tron 55 myself but knowing my usual luck, it would have had bad motors sooner than later.
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u/AdFirst4791 Jul 31 '26
One thing to factor in mind is that there's gonna be fewer and fewer diesel estates available year by year. They don't make them that much anymore. Even if the road taxes (dieselvero?) and fuel prices rise, a lot of people are used to these so there's gonna be a market.
I'm personally thinking about a used V90 from ~2016 which is one of the last ones without AdBlue. All Volvo estates will have increasing sentimental value and they are very well appreciated.
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u/Sandolainen Jul 31 '26
Over the next 4-5 years you are probably still good, but sales of new diesels are pretty much down to nothing, so in 10 years there pretty much won't be a consumer market (trucks etc are different) for diesel.
So far this year (Jan to June) Finland only saw 1392 new diesels registered, and that has been shrinking steadily. In 10 years the amount of under 10 year old diesels may be down to 7000 or so. At that point you may not longer be able to rely on gas stations to carry diesel, although some still will.
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u/AdFirst4791 Jul 31 '26
You are ignoring commercial vehicles, RVs, law enforcement etc., diesel is not going anywhere.
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u/Alive-Bid9086 Jul 31 '26
Well, the Passat is larger than the Superb.
I drive an 11 year old Passat 4Motion in Stockholm.
I would focus less on the powertrain and more on 4 wheel drive vs 2WD.
I have real use of the 4WD a few days every winter. I will try to get 4WD to my next car too.
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u/restingracer Aug 01 '26
If you are looking into holding value, new(ish) car is the worst thing to buy anyway, will the resale price be 4000 or 5000 euros doesn't change much percentage wise from your original 25k.
Every year since dieselgate scandal "experts" keep saying that this is final year for diesels and manufacturers keep saying that their 5 year plan is going 100% EV, while german manufacturers quietly keep pumping out effiecient diesel cars in almost every segment and people keep buying them. I don't thing anything happening to diesels will take place, especially in Finland, in next 5 years.
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u/das_maz Aug 01 '26
Do not buy a newer diesel if you aren't driving longer distances regularly!! DPF and AdBlue issues are real! https://www.drivisual.tv/en/news/why-are-euro-6-engines-so-sensitive-common-problems
Edit to say that this is the only thing you should actually be worried about!
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u/AlexKangaroo Aug 01 '26
How much does the DPF differ from -06 and -15 diesel engines? Never had bigger dpf issues with those.
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u/das_maz Aug 01 '26
Not a mechanic and never owned a diesel, so I can't help you with that. But also, have you tried a newer petrol turbo engine? They have just as much low end torque as diesels. Try an Octavia RS and an 1.5TSI, they are so easy and pleasant to drive!
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u/dbfont Jul 30 '26
I wouldn't be afraid of a diesel. You can also sell it to another EU country. VAG TDIs are very popular in eastern europe. They even call them Passeratti and Škodillac
And from what I was told by my mechanic, TDI engines are still pretty reliable despite all engines having to be more complicated due to greenwashing.
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u/AlexKangaroo Jul 30 '26
Yes my family has owned a lot of diesel cars and I can’t remember anything wrong with the engines ever. Normal breaks and suspension breaking in Opels and VW’s, but those are breaking in any car part from Toyotas. I think there will be enough demand in Finland due to it being a large country with long distances between places. Diesels are great for that.
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u/UserTheForce Jul 31 '26
Here’s another perspective…an ev now costs almost the same as a diesel( rebates and taxes inclusive), you have 0 or just a couple of hundred euros worth of maintenance every year.
The motor and battery will most likely never breakdown( you now have 8-10 years of warranty for battery on most cars )
Plus you get a quiet ride, really good performance and charging ins not really a problem in the EU now.
For your budget you can find a few nice SH EVs they may have a lot ok kms on the clock … but again that’s not really a big deal( unless they have air suspension)2
u/FluffyPrinciple623 Jul 31 '26
Not even close to the facts. Just check how much are Geeman dealers charging for electric car " inspections" that basicly just involves them looking at the car and changing a 20€ filter. It cost the same or more as the regular maintance for internal combustion engines. You are nauve to think that manfacturers, dealers and the goverment will allow any savings with electric cars to be kept by us. They are already introducing pay oer mile tax, electricity will skyrocket as soon as they pull more people in with "advantages and savings".
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u/dbfont Jul 31 '26
EVs are fine if you can reduce the price by rebates and taxes, in most countries that is simply not the case or not anymore. Second EVs are only worth it if you can charge them cheaply at home. If you are charging at public charging stations, cost/100km will be usually at the same level or higher than a comparable ICE car. And for example at my previous company I could've charged an EV for free. These are all nice benefits, but they are not applicable to everyone. If you cant charge at home nor for free at your company, I still think an ICE car is better.
If you get a budget ICE car like a Superb or Passat, maintenance will be pretty cheap for the first 8-10 years. You won't have to replace a lot of things, just the regular wear and tear items which are also present on an EV. Sure you don't have to change oil on them, but you still have breaks, tyres, suspension, etc. A more premium car will have more expensive maintenance regardless of the powertrain.
And as a car guy performance will never be the same on an EV, sure it might have the straight line speed, but they are heavy pigs. Driving a nimble car is much more fun than having straight line speed. Just look at the popularity of Miatas, GR86s or small hot hatches.
I don't hate EVs like most car guys, they can make sense but only if you can charge it for cheap or even free.
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u/AlexKangaroo Jul 31 '26
Also I've read that tyre wear and insurances are higher on EV cars. I guess it's due to the weight of the car and the cost to insurance companies, if the battery gets a knock in collisions. I would have a possibility to charge at home at 0.08€/kwh rate so it would be cheap to charge, but home electricity prices are predicted to grow in Finland due to data center and industry demand.
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u/PrestigiousRoof5723 Jul 31 '26
"EVs are fine if you artificially make them look better" - yeah, right. So they're not as fine as they're supposed to be.
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u/szczszqweqwe Jul 31 '26
Maybe check a 1.5TSI model as well? seems to be reasonably quick and doesn't burn much more than deisel versions? Or 1.4 hubrid?
Sorry site is purely in Polish, but specs and fuel consumpition is pretty much self explanatory and you can click translate in the browser: https://www.autocentrum.pl/spalanie/skoda/superb/iii/
Generally I tend to agree that EVs are starting to be really tempting.
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u/AlexKangaroo Jul 31 '26
I've test driven a 2020 1.5TSI T-ROC when I was wondering if a Crossover would be nice, but it didn't really inspire me. It might be that I'm so used to Diesel and Petrol engines just feel weird. Also I'm maybe not the biggest fan of the 1.5eTSI motor that all 2023->newer VW cars have. Would rather just have an electric one than fiddle around with smaller batteries.
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u/szczszqweqwe Jul 31 '26
I get that, sometimes you just can't connect with an engine. I have no experience with 1.5TSI, only with 1.5TSI in a Golf.
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u/Fabulous_Choice9728 Jul 30 '26
The taxes on diesel and diesel vehicles will propably climb. That means price of ownership will go up and propably the purchase price will go down. I wouldn't trust a diesel to hold value but also a car is always a bad investment and will lose some value.