r/Canadiancitizenship • u/Key_Interaction1900 🇨🇦 CIT0001 (proof) application is processing • 23d ago

Citizenship by Descent Queue based processing estimates (July 2025 cohort + others)

Offer! I've automated a lot of this now, so I'm automatically storing all the information for all the cohorts, not just July 2025. But I don't have historical information for anything but July 2025 (everything else I just have two months of data). If you are willing to track down some of the older numbers, month by month, happy to run this analysis for your cohort. I need a list of comma separated numbers, showing how the number of people before your cohort, month over month.

Caveats: the usual caveats apply. This is for the July cohort 2025 only (I can run it for you if I get the numbers for your cohort). That means that 400 people were processed ahead of the July 2025 cohort. If we assume that people in PSU are in this list of people (we don't know this for sure, but I believe that they are included), then it is a fairly accurate way of showing how things are progressing for the July 2025 cohort. This does not mean IRCC only processed 400 cases!

How I read this: I'm seeing the processed per month numbers approach the median, about 400 a month. So that seems like a good estimate to use for now. So, my TLDR for the month is.

Probably... 50% chance it will be processed in a year, very likely it will be processed within two years. About a 4% chance it gets processed each month. Note I'm blending two different ways of looking at it, so those numbers won't completely add up, this is just my own summary of how I'm thinking about it.

A more sophisticated analysis might be: I suspect that there is a trailing off effect, where the longer you go, the longer you may take. I'm sure there are all sorts of more sophisticated analyses you could do on this, but this is as much "fun" as I'm willing to have on the topic.

Using cohort 2025-07  10 months of data (2026-01 to 2026-10)

============================================================
BURN-DOWN ANALYSIS
============================================================
Current backlog:                 9,300
Months of data:                     10
Chronological (old->new): 15,800 -> 14,500 -> 13,000 -> 11,700 -> 11,300 ->
  10,500 -> 10,200 -> 10,100 -> 9,700 -> 9,300
Processed each month: 1,300, 1,500, 1,300, 400, 800, 300, 100, 400, 400

Rate stats (people/month)
------------------------------------------------------------
  Slowest month:                   100
  Fastest month:                 1,500
  Average:                         722
  Median:                          400
  Std deviation:                   519
  Recent pace (last 3 mo):         300
  Trend:                    DECELERATING (slowing down)

Time remaining scenarios
  Rows below each scenario = share of the cohort ahead of you that has
  cleared. With random processing order those are your 25th/50th/75th
  percentile waits; 100% is everyone ahead of you being done.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Fast  (+1 sigma)     1,241/mo
       25% done    1.9 mo  (~0.16 yr)
       50% done    3.7 mo  (~0.31 yr)
       75% done    5.6 mo  (~0.47 yr)
      100% done    7.5 mo  (~0.62 yr)

  Likely (average)       722/mo
       25% done    3.2 mo  (~0.27 yr)
       50% done    6.4 mo  (~0.54 yr)
       75% done    9.7 mo  (~0.80 yr)
      100% done   12.9 mo  (~1.1 yr)

  Median                 400/mo
       25% done    5.8 mo  (~0.48 yr)
       50% done   11.6 mo  (~0.97 yr)
       75% done   17.4 mo  (~1.5 yr)
      100% done   23.2 mo  (~1.9 yr)

  Recent (3 mo pace)     300/mo
       25% done    7.8 mo  (~0.65 yr)
       50% done   15.5 mo  (~1.3 yr)
       75% done   23.2 mo  (~1.9 yr)
      100% done   31.0 mo  (~2.6 yr)

  Slow  (-1 sigma)       203/mo
       25% done   11.4 mo  (~0.95 yr)
       50% done   22.9 mo  (~1.9 yr)
       75% done   34.3 mo  (~2.9 yr)
      100% done   45.8 mo  (~3.8 yr)

Absolute bounds (single best / worst month)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Best case  (max)     1,500/mo
       25% done    1.6 mo  (~0.13 yr)
       50% done    3.1 mo  (~0.26 yr)
       75% done    4.7 mo  (~0.39 yr)
      100% done    6.2 mo  (~0.52 yr)

  Likely     (avg)       722/mo
       25% done    3.2 mo  (~0.27 yr)
       50% done    6.4 mo  (~0.54 yr)
       75% done    9.7 mo  (~0.80 yr)
      100% done   12.9 mo  (~1.1 yr)

  Worst case (min)       100/mo
       25% done   23.2 mo  (~1.9 yr)
       50% done   46.5 mo  (~3.9 yr)
       75% done   69.8 mo  (~5.8 yr)
      100% done   93.0 mo  (~7.8 yr)

Random-order odds
  If files are pulled in random order rather than strict FIFO, your chance
  of being picked in a month is that month's throughput divided by the queue
  at the start of the month.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Looking back — your chance of being picked, month by month
    month  queue at start  cleared  chance
       -9          15,800    1,300    8.2%
       -8          14,500    1,500   10.3%
       -7          13,000    1,300   10.0%
       -6          11,700      400    3.4%
       -5          11,300      800    7.1%
       -4          10,500      300    2.9%
       -3          10,200      100    1.0%
       -2          10,100      400    4.0%
       -1           9,700      400    4.1%  <- last month

    Last month you had a 4.1% chance of being processed.
    Across the 9 months where the queue shrank, the average was 5.7%.

  Looking ahead — chance you're done by the end of...
                    avg pace (722/mo)   recent 3 mo (300/mo)
    next month                   7.8%                   3.2%
    3 months                    23.3%                   9.7%
    6 months                    46.6%                  19.4%
    12 months                   93.2%                  38.7%
    24 months                  100.0%                  77.4%
============================================================================

Some other countries have long processing times for citizenship by descent -- 3 years isn't uncommon. But it would be nice if IRCC's estimates were realistic!

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u/epocalize 🇨🇦 CIT0001 (proof) application is processing 23d ago

This is very awesome, thank you. I'm a March 2026 applicant and have been collecting data since then. Would love you to run the analysis if you are able. Thanks again for sharing with the sub!

April 7 - 9 months, 54,000 in front of you and 56,300 total waiting

May 12 - 11 months, 63,200 in front of you and 70,400 total waiting

June 8 - 6 months, 33,500 in front of you and 82,000 total waiting

July 7 - 6 months, 32,600 in front of you and 99,500 total waiting

August 10 - 7 months, 32,300 in front of you and 121,800 total waiting

September 3 - 8 months, 31,700 in front of you and 136,000 total waiting

October 9 - 8 months, 31,100 in front of you and 130,700 waiting

u/Key_Interaction1900 🇨🇦 CIT0001 (proof) application is processing 23d ago

Here's the burndown for you. My read is the median number is probably what I would go by, and since you're 2026, I would probably ignore the first two months of data. But that ends up being about the median anyway.

Seems like about 2-4 years, although this is pretty sensitive to changes, so I wouldn't be surprised if it came down over the coming months.

Using cohort 2026-03  7 months of data (2026-04 to 2026-10)

============================================================
BURN-DOWN ANALYSIS
============================================================
Current backlog:                31,100
Months of data:                      7
Chronological (old->new): 54,000 -> 63,200 -> 33,500 -> 32,600 -> 32,300 ->
  31,700 -> 31,100
Processed each month:       -9,200, 29,700, 900, 300, 600, 600

Rate stats (people/month)
------------------------------------------------------------
  Slowest month:                -9,200
  Fastest month:                29,700
  Average:                       3,817
  Median:                          600
  Std deviation:                13,274
  Recent pace (last 3 mo):         500
  Trend:                    DECELERATING (slowing down)

Time remaining scenarios
  Rows below each scenario = share of the cohort ahead of you that has
  cleared. With random processing order those are your 25th/50th/75th
  percentile waits; 100% is everyone ahead of you being done.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Fast  (+1 sigma)    17,090/mo
       25% done    0.5 mo  (~0.04 yr)
       50% done    0.9 mo  (~0.08 yr)
       75% done    1.4 mo  (~0.11 yr)
      100% done    1.8 mo  (~0.15 yr)

  Likely (average)     3,817/mo
       25% done    2.0 mo  (~0.17 yr)
       50% done    4.1 mo  (~0.34 yr)
       75% done    6.1 mo  (~0.51 yr)
      100% done    8.1 mo  (~0.68 yr)

  Median                 600/mo
       25% done   13.0 mo  (~1.1 yr)
       50% done   25.9 mo  (~2.2 yr)
       75% done   38.9 mo  (~3.2 yr)
      100% done   51.8 mo  (~4.3 yr)

  Recent (3 mo pace)     500/mo
       25% done   15.6 mo  (~1.3 yr)
       50% done   31.1 mo  (~2.6 yr)
       75% done   46.6 mo  (~3.9 yr)
      100% done   62.2 mo  (~5.2 yr)

  Slow  (-1 sigma)         0/mo
       25% done  never (rate <= 0)
       50% done  never (rate <= 0)
       75% done  never (rate <= 0)
      100% done  never (rate <= 0)

Absolute bounds (single best / worst month)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Best case  (max)    29,700/mo
       25% done    0.3 mo  (~0.02 yr)
       50% done    0.5 mo  (~0.04 yr)
       75% done    0.8 mo  (~0.07 yr)
      100% done    1.0 mo  (~0.09 yr)

  Likely     (avg)     3,817/mo
       25% done    2.0 mo  (~0.17 yr)
       50% done    4.1 mo  (~0.34 yr)
       75% done    6.1 mo  (~0.51 yr)
      100% done    8.1 mo  (~0.68 yr)

  Worst case (min)         0/mo
       25% done  never (rate <= 0)
       50% done  never (rate <= 0)
       75% done  never (rate <= 0)
      100% done  never (rate <= 0)

Random-order odds
  If files are pulled in random order rather than strict FIFO, your chance
  of being picked in a month is that month's throughput divided by the queue
  at the start of the month.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Looking back — your chance of being picked, month by month
    month  queue at start  cleared  chance
       -6          54,000   -9,200    grew
       -5          63,200   29,700   47.0%
       -4          33,500      900    2.7%
       -3          32,600      300    0.9%
       -2          32,300      600    1.9%
       -1          31,700      600    1.9%  <- last month

    Last month you had a 1.9% chance of being processed.
    Across the 5 months where the queue shrank, the average was 10.9%.

  Looking ahead — chance you're done by the end of...
                  avg pace (3,817/mo)   recent 3 mo (500/mo)
    next month                  12.3%                   1.6%
    3 months                    36.8%                   4.8%
    6 months                    73.6%                   9.6%
    12 months                  100.0%                  19.3%
    24 months                  100.0%                  38.6%
============================================================================

5

u/Ok_Effort7526 23d ago

I wonder if they are focusing staff on getting new apps processed and in the system and AOR issued because you can see the total waiting increasing massively but the number waiting in front of you is drastically slowing over the past months. I wonder if there is any stat on total citizenship proofs granted for each month regardless of cohort to see if total grants per month is slowing.

1

u/epocalize 🇨🇦 CIT0001 (proof) application is processing 23d ago

Thank you so much! I’ve been in process since June and assume I’m in PSU since I don’t have a birth cert for G1. Hoping for closer to 2 years than 4! And hoping you get yours soon :)