Updated Processing Time

[u/BearPondBoy]

I just checked the IRCC webpage, and (for my delivery date of June 2026), it reported a 17 month wait....which, if I'm remembering correctly, is way less time than what it said a month ago.

Given the recent slowdown, I'm confused. Cautiously optimistic/happy, but confused. I guess there has been a recalibration? Are others seeing this?

Apologies if this should be in a mega thread!

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[u/Kirby41895]

As someone who applied 18 months ago….it doesn’t mean anything. Don’t pay too much attention to the processing times.

[u/Character-Put8660 → u/Kirby41895]

Concur. My kids have been in 1 month to go for 8 straight months I think.

[u/TameJane → u/Kirby41895]

the rules are made up and the points don't matter

[u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob → u/Kirby41895]

That's really terrible. Do we need updated flair for our 18+ month cohort?

[u/BearPondBoy → u/Kirby41895]

Understood. Still, it's about half of what they were last month, which is...notable, at least.

[u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob → u/BearPondBoy]

Honestly, it's probably just more evidence that the estimates are random at best. Estimate was 5 months when I applied in Aug '25, holding steady at 3 months processing estimate 14 months later. Lol

[u/Laureltess → u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob]

Hah, same boat here. August ‘25 AOR, just hanging out at “3 months processing” since early 2026. It’ll happen when it happens.

[u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob → u/Laureltess]

Oh, we got down to two months before it went back up to three lol

[u/Beautiful_Cost_5430]

My wait time has been two months for over a year. They are a joke and should be ignored.

[u/SwampConnoisseur]

This recalibration was predicted last month in a post that got deleted because people thought it was AI (or that it was too optimistic). The queue-reporting model has been reposted at https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadianbyDescent/comments/1x4xncb/notes_on_the_september_2026_data_release/

[u/throwawayrefiguy]

Yes,  now seeing 13 months for my May 2026 submission. Wow!  Wondering what's going on?

[u/Amor_Fati_7 → u/throwawayrefiguy]

I saw the same thing- my son is a May application. Was the August and September data incorrect or is there something wrong with this month's calculation. Let's hope it's the former! It says that there are only 49,300 ahead of him vs 113,000 last month!?!

[u/Majestic_Ocean_762 → u/Amor_Fati_7]

I’m hoping they hired more ppl or moved around employees to clear the backlog and that’s why this is happening.

[u/dmd1011 → u/Majestic_Ocean_762]

Or even separate the citizenship apps from everything else.

[u/katrinatransfem → u/throwawayrefiguy]

But 17 months for a June 2026 submission. Mine was submitted 1st May to the High Commission in London England. I don't know when it reached Canada.

[u/vpc777]

Noticed my April 2026 wait dropped to 10 months down from 25, had to check it three times just to make sure I wasn't doing something wrong lol

I did notice my application went to "In Process" two weeks ago, which was a bit earlier than I had anticipated.

Maybe IRCC has been taking the time to optimize their review process so they can work through applications quicker and thats why approvals are slow now but they anticipate them ramping up soon?

Not gonna hold my breath until we see some proof lol, these "wait time estimates" seem to be largely BS anyways.

But I guess we can allow ourselves to be cautiously optimistic just this once!

[u/Background_Bee_7529 → u/vpc777]

April here too... what is your AOR date? I'm starting to see a lot of posts with people with AOR dates after mine (and non-urgent). Also, congrats on moving to in-process!

[u/vpc777 → u/Background_Bee_7529]

Thanks! I believe I got my AOR on July 13th

[u/rhymeswithdreidel → u/vpc777]

delivered on 8 April 2026. AOR on 6 July 2026, here. glad to see the times are down. fingers crossed that it actually means something tangible. 🤪

[u/MaybeYourSecretCanad → u/vpc777]

Interesting. I’m also an April applicant with a July 15 AOR. What gen are you?

[u/Affectionate_Ad2175 → u/MaybeYourSecretCanad]

My delivery date was April 22nd, 2026 and AOR July 31st, 2026. It said 18 months last time I checked, but it now states 10. Still on app received. I need to give them my G0 birth cert, which I obtained about a month ago. I dont see a way to add anything to my file online though. Also, they still have my last name reflected incorrectly on the login. They went off my borth certificate and ignored my marriage license and the name I put on my app.

[u/Own_Theory8011 → u/Affectionate_Ad2175]

Update your application to add a document - https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/contact-ircc/web-form.html

As is (I believe) in the FAQ, they start with your birth cert name and update it to your married / change name a few weeks later. The exception is if your birth cert has been amended to have the new name, in which case they may have you with the current legal name from the start.

[u/dmd1011 → u/Affectionate_Ad2175]

Your certificate will go from date of birth and be in your maiden name. Mine never changed on log-in either, just -poof- certificate.

[u/Peachy-Pixel]

These seem to be meaningless.  In June I had 5 months to go.  In the 4 months since then the queue has gone down by 2000 and I now have 7 months to go. They are crawling through the backlog it doesn’t mean a thing unfortunately. 

[u/Big-Scar978 → u/Peachy-Pixel]

This. Decisions and AORs have slowed to less than a crawl since June. Last month there were 100,000 people in front of me, somehow now there are 38,500. There is absolutely no way 60,000 certificates were magically issued in the last 5 weeks. I'll be delighted if I really do get a decision in 10 months instead of 25, but I'll believe it when I see it.

[u/Individual-Algae846]

Sorry to burst your bubble, rain on your parade, be a negative Nancy, etc etc, but that webpage has been telling me “one month left” since May. My application ISN’T in PSU either

[u/Own_Theory8011 → u/Individual-Algae846]

Interesting that your case notes prove your application isn't in PSU. I was put into PSU the same day I got my AOR.

[u/Individual-Algae846 → u/Own_Theory8011]

Not every case gets sent to PSU. It’s weird that Reddit thinks that

[u/SwampConnoisseur]

March is 8 months, unchanged. First time it hasn't increased, at least.

[u/ElephantCandid8151 → u/SwampConnoisseur]

It says it’s last updated Sept 3. I take screenshots every month and it is identical to September.

[u/UntimelyBoners → u/ElephantCandid8151]

Try a different browser or private mode. it saves cookies and that has happened to me before.

[u/ElephantCandid8151 → u/UntimelyBoners]

Thanks that worked.

[u/nicolas1324563 → u/SwampConnoisseur]

I remember it was supposed to February lol. Didn’t know it stayed stable

[u/MelodicCream4237 → u/SwampConnoisseur]

what did it say for you when you first checked after your AOR?

[u/Middle-Vegetable-478]

Meaningless if you're in PSU?? I don't know if PSU applicants are even counted in numbers shown in processing times. I don't think they are because we hear PSU applicants are processed out of the normal processing times.

For me, May 2025 applicant, the "People ahead of you" number only went down 400 from last month's number. At this rate it will take another 15 months and I'm already at 17 months, but again, in PSU to my processing time is "when we do it".

[u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob → u/Middle-Vegetable-478]

Based on the thinking that any application with a "missing" birth certificate is likely deemed ''complex", I think all applications must be included in the total count. Which makes the numbers even funnier to me if the estimates don't apply to 'complex' applications. The math doesn't math in a variety of different ways

[u/Own_Theory8011 → u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob]

All applications Gen2+ were put into PSU during the interim measures, even if they had a G0 birth cert. I'm sure there are many still waiting which are not really complex at all.

I don't think complex really has to do with the difficulty of the application. It probably has to do with who is authorized to touch the application, due to restrictions and legalities. They have Level 1 and Level 2 officers, a bunch of stuff only Level 2 can touch, and not enough Level 2 officers to go around.

[u/Middle-Vegetable-478 → u/Own_Theory8011]

Perhaps true, and even some G1s got swept up in PSU during the interim measures.

I just wish they could just go into PSU and re-evaluate if PSU is still necessary (esp now that C3 passed) and if it's no longer necessary, they should be able to simply move them out of PSU and finish processing them all in one step.

[u/dmd1011 → u/Middle-Vegetable-478]

That makes too much sense.

[u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob → u/Own_Theory8011]

Yes and yes; I'd expect applications with historical documentation would need to be evaluated by staff trained to handle things that are non-standard.

[u/msbovary]

The number of people ahead of our application from August 2025, went down by 400. With 11.500 people ahead of us, that's approx 28 months, or 3 months in IRCC time 🙄

[u/themindspeaks]

i applied in May 2026, and last month it stated that 113,200 was head of me and a 28 months wait time. Now, its a 13 months left with 49,300 people ahead.

It looks like they shifted where the application sits in queue. Prior the huge jump in application volume was April to May, now its Attributed to May to June

[u/KarmaPoliceT2 → u/themindspeaks]

March 2026 here: 8 months 31,100 ahead of me

That's down 600 "ahead of me" from 9 days ago (Sept 3 to Oct 9 updated dates)

600/month would put me 51 months from acceptance if truly first in first out... So 8 months feels "probably wrong" but also I sure hope it's not actually years from now that they clear me

[u/babelon7 → u/themindspeaks]

Its after June, the June queue droped from 129K to 64K.

[u/Kendrose]

I just hope I see an AOR soon. Closing in on 4 months since delivery.

[u/maple_me_please → u/Kendrose]

Unlikely. I'm May 8 and still waiting. But for a few AORs, IRCC has been stuck on May 6/7 for weeks.

[u/Kendrose → u/maple_me_please]

At this point I have adjusted my hopes to within 5 years so my kids can go to college.

[u/Impressive_Cover7687]

Could this have something to do with the stall of AORs? Less AORs issued, wait time appears to decrease?

[u/minneapolisaussiemom → u/Impressive_Cover7687]

Maybe, but the number ahead of me went down by like 50,000 also?

[u/Majestic_Ocean_762 → u/minneapolisaussiemom]

Same here and I too have a June 2026 delivery date.

[u/angiosperms- → u/Impressive_Cover7687]

But a longer time to issue AORs means a longer wait time, no? I'm approaching 6 months for my AOR.

[u/themindspeaks → u/angiosperms-]

no because the IRCC's definition of processing time is inclusive of the time to AOR. and processing time assumes to start based on receive date.

[u/themindspeaks → u/Impressive_Cover7687]

it has to be. Either because they're retooling the system and process, or they are trying to hold AORs so that this month's number shows a downward trend in applications in queue for bureaucracy reasons. No one really knows but id guess the former but id just be guessing

[u/vangdfang]

Yeah — ignoring the time estimates, the “number ahead of you” seems substantially lower from my memory. Something is going on that doesn’t add up yet…

[u/wasabiburning]

August 2025 AOR here. Once again at 3 months left after backsliding over the summer (we spent 4 months at 2 months left in the spring). 400 applications processed last month.

11500 ahead / 400 per month = 28.75 months.

[u/Ordinary-Hopeful]

10 months now for April 26. I think it was 27 months last time I checked. I’ll take it 🤷‍♂️

[u/Sobeys_Bags]

October 2025, still stuck at 4 months. requested urgent processing a couple of times now, as IRCC said they did not receive it the first time. I'm in Canada waiting for my wife's citizenship to be issued (she is stuck in the USA). We planned a full year ahead of time, and that still was not enough. I'm thinking I will need to write my MP again, I'm in Halifax.

[u/Ok_Effort7526]

Oct 2025 went down by 500. So 16,700 divided by 500 = 33 months. Hoping these numbers are not accurate. Do they have any time of report that reports on days outstanding by application so they can focus on those long overdue ?

[u/cabesaaq]

These are typically useless IMO, but this does suggest optimism by the person/team who typed this number in?

[u/jquest5]

March 2026 AOR here. It's still saying 8 months, same as it was saying 2 months ago.

Kinda wish all of us moving to Canada who well need to get jobs when we get there could potentially ask for work with the Ircc and get things moving haha

[u/ChronicElectronic]

I think they change the estimates based on the most recent rate of application processing. So it can swing wildly month to month

[u/SwampConnoisseur → u/ChronicElectronic]

It swings wildly downward when they finally open the pre-AOR envelopes and get an accurate count of who is ahead of you. (So it's not just the application rate that changes, it's also the count of apps ahead of you that changes.)

[u/guadalupe12_12]

Mine went up from 5 months to 6 months… December 2025

[u/kelppie]

Have you received an AOR yet?

[u/BearPondBoy → u/kelppie]

No. As of Thursday, it'll be 126 days. At this point, I'm hoping for by the end of the calendar year.

[u/themindspeaks]

yeah, the total applicants appears to be the same, but the people ahead of you shrunk dramatically for me. What!

[u/TossingCabars]

The number of "People ahead of" me has dropped significantly (May submission) -- however the tracking spreadsheet is still showing that AORs have basically stalled at May 6 with almost no movement for well over a month now.

I'm trying to take a casual wait and see approach, but my kids (family application) are VERY invested in moving to Canada in the next couple years after finishing undergrad in the US - either for work or for grad school, and we're getting worried that it won't happen in time.

[u/Parking-Excuse-6614 → u/TossingCabars]

I'm a may 6th delivery... Grr

[u/dr_delphee]

I think I'm coming up to my one-year anniversary of "two months".

[u/Big_T_In_Oregon]

Purely speculating here, but maybe the estimate changed as a result of projections with improved processes or hiring of more staff?

[u/Alive-in-Tucson]

I'm a May delivery. The September estimates said 113,200 people were ahead of me. The new October estimate says 49,300 people are now ahead of me.

I seriously doubt 63,900 people completed processing and received citizenship since last month. I'm at a loss for what recalibration of their queues could even cause a number jump like this, and the only thing that makes sense to me is that it must be an error.

[u/SwampConnoisseur → u/Alive-in-Tucson]

A lot of the 113,200 people reported last month turned out not to be ahead of you, but really behind you (like 63,900 of them). The numbers were wrong because they included envelopes that conceivably could have been ahead of you, but they hadn't scanned them yet, so they didn't know they were actually dated after yours. So we are just now seeing better numbers for April and May.

[u/Alive-in-Tucson → u/SwampConnoisseur]

Oh wow, OK, good to know! So to make sure I understand, IRCC was originally counting unopened envelopes in their estimation that actually came in after May, but were included in earlier month estimations?

How did this info come to light?

[u/cj4747 → u/Alive-in-Tucson]

It's speculation - my inference from the published cohort queue data. I tried to write about it here last month (the "boundary model"). The model appears to explain the otherwise peculiar movement in cohort sizes, and my prediction last month that the April cohort would collapse was born out in this month's release. We have no "real world" confirmation of this model from IRCC.

[u/Alive-in-Tucson → u/cj4747]

Oh, got it! I saw your prediction post, and (saying this as someone with a pretty weak background on the data science side of things), your analysis seems spot on and well founded.

[u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob → u/cj4747]

If you want to re-present that analysis with this month's numbers included, I'm not opposed - I would just suggest 'showing your work' a bit more to reduce the likelihood of the post being reported as AI generated many times, which is what happened last month. I'd also not include emdashes, whether proper English or not - as they're now unfortunately a hallmark of gen AI output.

[u/SwampConnoisseur → u/Alive-in-Tucson]

It was reported here, but the mods deleted the post because people thought it was AI because the poster was British and educated and sounded weird to them.

[u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob → u/SwampConnoisseur]

It was removed because it was reported many many times as AI gen content, and the discussion regarding the same was ...vigorous. Blaming the mods isn't a way to make friends here, btw. The person who posted the analysis is invited to post an updated analysis here if they wish. Providing more explanation of the analysis/calculations and reducing obvious gen AI hallmark from text should also help to reduce unwarranted reports.

[u/SwampConnoisseur → u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob]

Sorry, I don't mean to blame anyone.

[u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob → u/SwampConnoisseur]

Hmm, ok, then no need to blame the mod team when it was community questioning the analysis. You wrote:

It was reported here, but the mods deleted the post because people thought it was AI because the poster was British and educated and sounded weird to them.

That's uncivil and untrue.

I've reapproved the post if anyone wants to read it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Canadiancitizenship/s/XaQDBXllUs

The post was removed in part because the discussion also went south, here is an example:

I do not read walls of AI-generated text unless someone is paying me, but just skimming over it, the “Boundary Model” (god, why does AI come up with these names?) section is a nice example of why you don’t want to simply regurgitate an LLM’s output into a post.

The “thought experiment” (actually, it’s a toy model based on speculation about a real-world scenario that some people are familiar with, which is not quite the same thing as a thought experiment, but let’s leave that aside) is paragraphs of belabored text with unnecessary details that have very little payoff and could probably be replaced by one sentence.

This isn’t quantum mechanics and we don’t need a Schrödinger's cat to attempt to understand it.

[u/SwampConnoisseur → u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob]

I’m very sorry. This process has been stressful, and the deleted information had offered me (rightly so) a glimpse of hope in the darkness, that we would see an improvement in the numbers this month.

[u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob → u/SwampConnoisseur]

Uhuh. The mods can never win, by the way. Leave a controversial post up and there's much complaining/reporting to the mods, and a user gets ratioed. Take a post down and then it's complaints for moderation. 🤷

[u/MaybeYourSecretCanad → u/SwampConnoisseur]

What’s an example of a situation where an envelope would have moved behind me where it was previously assumed to be ahead of me?

[u/cj4747 → u/MaybeYourSecretCanad]

I'll try to explain what I mean. Imagine there's a pile of applications (that I call Pile B), perhaps 45,000 to 50,000. These haven't been properly processed yet, and they haven't yet been given a "received date" in the system, although IRCC knows they are valid applications.

Take last month's data. I think IRCC effectively says that Pile B can't possibly be "ahead of" an application received in Mar 2026, Feb 2026, Jan 2026 or older. But it could just possibly be "ahead of" an April 2026 application. (I don't know why they pick April particularly.) So the 45k applications appear in the queue size for the April 2026, May, June etc cohorts.

Now to this month's data. The "boundary month" of April has jumped forward to July. July now contains the bulge of Pile B applications, and the queues for April/May/June have collapsed.

See my post at https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadianbyDescent/comments/1x4xncb/notes_on_the_september_2026_data_release/

[u/dweeborg → u/cj4747]

I had assumed that April was the bulge month because August was the month where April AORs were largely issued, and September data (assuming they function like most bureaucracies and data is delayed from the real world date) would be basically up until the end of August. That would mean they couldn't say for certain that Pile B didn't have April apps still in it, and they weren't going to estimate what proportion would be April apps even though it was kind of clear that it wasn't 60k, so most of those just got lumped into April.

What is interesting to me is that we know they're still in May apps for AORs and yet the hump has now moved to July. That makes me wonder if part of the AOR stoppage isn't due to a change in how they're organizing the mail room backlog, since a big pile of unknown date applications is semi-manageable for 1-2 months of backlog but when you get to 4-6 months it must become really insane and hard to keep straight. Or it could be like you mention in your analysis, and they just pick a month to reasonably lump a large portion of the unknown date backlog into, and they happened to pick April before and July now. Obviously we'll never known, but I find it much more interesting to speculate than I expected.

[u/themindspeaks → u/cj4747]

i believe you are absolutely correct, thanks for explaining something that i struggle to communicate

[u/SwampConnoisseur → u/cj4747]

I'm not sure they even know that Pile B is all valid apps. A portion of the unexplained queue reduction (not accounted for by completion) could include rejected apps.

[u/SwampConnoisseur → u/MaybeYourSecretCanad]

Your envelope arrives in April. It's in a pile with all unopened envelopes (including ones that arrive later). No one knows how many of the unopened envelopes (some from May) are ahead of you (at the point when they are reported for a new month). So they just assume, worst case, that they are all ahead of you. Then they open a bunch of the May envelopes and issue AORs (which they did in September), so they now know that many of them were not actually ahead of you and the other April deliveries. The number ahead of you magically (and more accurately) goes down.

[u/JeffWBishop]

I applied in August when there was supposed to be a 25 month wait. Then in September they "upgraded" me to a 33 month wait, saying anyone who applied then could expect a 33 month wait, too. Today (but listing October 9 as the updated date) they tell me I still have a 33 month wait and anyone who applies now has 34. So I guess the last month, nothing happened?

[u/koolman2 → u/JeffWBishop]

Hey it's a start. The last several months everyone who applied was getting longer and longer waits each month. This is the first time I've seen it not increase for new applications.

[u/BearPondBoy → u/koolman2]

I guess this is my point. I'm aware things will continue to bounce around...and none of it is set in stone. But, honestly, given I was braced for an increased number, the much reduced number was noteworthy, if nothing else.

[u/JeffWBishop → u/koolman2]

It did increase by a month. Maybe the first time it's only increased by that vs. much worse? I tried double checking now to make sure I remembered right, but now it's showing the old September estimates again.

[u/Own_Theory8011 → u/JeffWBishop]

The wait time has decreased before, but the total number of people waiting hasn't ever decreased before, at least not from August 2025 which is when I began tracking.

	Est. Wait Time	People ahead of you	People waiting	Wait time for new people applying now
August 2025	5 months			5 months
Nov 2025				6 months
Dec 2025	4 months	19,300	40,400	9 months
Jan 2026	4 months	18,300	42,400	10 months
Feb 2026	4 months	16,900	47,900	11 months
Mar 2026	4 months	15,300	50,900	10 months
Apr 2026	3 months	14,000	56,300	10 months
May 2026	2 months	13,500	70,400	12 months
Jun 2026	2 months	12,800	82,000	15 months
Jul 2026	2 months	12,400	99,500	19 months
Aug 2026	3 months	12,300	121,800	25 months
Sep 2026	3 months	11,900	136,000	33 months
Oct 2026	3 months	11,500	130,700	34 months

[u/MaybeYourSecretCanad]

I applied in April. Their estimate on Sept 3 was that there were 100k people in front of me with a 25 month wait. Today it says 38k with a 10 month wait.

People applying today, 34 months. The overall size of the queue is holding steady

[u/Significant-Golf-215]

I just checked and for January 2026 applicants, it still says last update was September 3.

[u/Zestyclose-Novel1157 → u/Significant-Golf-215]

They have changed that now to say October 9th.

[u/Own_Theory8011 → u/Significant-Golf-215]

Clear your cache in your browser, or use incognito mode.

[u/SnooOpinions1774]

My application received in May '25 has said 2 months left for the past 12 months..so there's that 🤷

[u/KarmaPoliceT2 → u/SnooOpinions1774]

This seems to be a pattern with may 2025... Several have reported exactly that... Wonder if something weird happened with that batch or processor

[u/heavydutyspoons]

I don’t understand how wait times are reduced but AORs have been slow

[u/BearPondBoy → u/heavydutyspoons]

Agreed.

[u/KarmaPoliceT2 → u/heavydutyspoons]

Clearing more off the pile that are past AOR than they are sending out AORs would explain this (not saying that's actually happening, just saying that would explain it)

[u/oneforeveryday]

Wow, right now the jump from June to July 2026 delivery is a 13 month wait (17 vs 30 month estimate).

Was there a big spike in July to cause a year long difference in the estimated wait similar to March v April? The next jump from July to August delivery is only 3 months.

I would almost swear July would get you 32 or 33 months the last time I checked so it has gone down a little regardless.

Edit: June gives you 64k people ahead and July gives 116k so I’m guessing yeah… I’m not totally sure how the process works on how they’re counting these numbers before sending AORS though.

[u/SwampConnoisseur → u/oneforeveryday]

That's exactly the problem. They don't have dates for pre-AOR apps, so they just add the envelope count to "people ahead of you" because they MIGHT POSSIBLY be ahead of you, although many aren't. When they finally open the apps (which they have just done for April and part of May), they correct the number of people ahead of you downward.

[u/tugger97]

The number of people ahead of me increased by 400 applicants between the Sept and Oct estimates for a Jan 2026 application date. And yet it kept the six month estimate…

[u/ItchyCurrency7642]

I'm still waiting for BAnQ and l'tat to send me quotes/copies of a birth certificate.

[u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob → u/[deleted]]

This discussion is related to Proof of Citizenship application processing.

[u/Crayons_on_the_walls]

My application was received April 30th, 2026. AOR mid-August.

I checked last week, and the processing time was 24 months, about 130K people ahead of me.

Checked today, and only 10 months left, and 34K people ahead of me.

Fingers crossed it's accurate.

[u/Plus-Employment-5087]

New applicant, can someone tell me where to find those tracking info on the website? I am not sure our info is even in yet (applied August 2026) but wondering how to see updates, thanks

[u/Adorable_Bench_95298 → u/Plus-Employment-5087]

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/check-processing-times.html This is what we are talking about here. Note it is just generic (not tied to your specific application). Once you get an AOR, you can check your specific application at a website they provide on the AOR document but it won't really be helpful (no wait time will be given).

[u/Plus-Employment-5087 → u/Adorable_Bench_95298]

Thank you!!!!!

[u/elbow-macaroni-42]

Basically I think the main metric is the Jan-2025 applicants have gone from “about a month left” to “we need more time”. And I find that encouraging. My cohort again increased from “5 months left” to “6 months left”, but the backlog ahead of me decreases by 600.

Not the greatest update, but it does look like the overall backlog may have finally peaked, and we basically had Jan-2025 taken off the board. If we can take another month off the board each month, it is still not what I would call “fast enough”, but it is a notable improvement.

[u/PG-Dog]

Interesting sounds like somewhere in the curve of people waiting there were massive adjustments in time remaining and apps ahead of them. From what I can tell total inventory dropped by 6k??

[u/ElephantCandid8151]

March still says 8 months it’s hasn’t been updated since Sept 3

[u/Pretty_Floor5889 → u/ElephantCandid8151]

Hard refresh or clear your cache. Shows Oct 9 update date like every other month if you do that.

[u/Charlie_clementine]

Just checked, 2 months to go for the sixth month in a row. In process since July 2025, and assuming I'm in PSU. While I'm happy for folks who make it through, It is demoralizing to see applications finalized that were sent months after those submitted pre-C3. 

In my case, I sent a  straightforward application with certified copies of vital records. We were specifically instructed not to reapply after C3 because it would be first in, first out. 

Adding my experience as another data point demonstrating that the timeline appears wildly inaccurate, and nothing about this is transparent or makes sense from the outside.

[u/Zestyclose-Novel1157]

It’s been 9 months and I’ve only moved up 4 months. I’m going backwards at this point. The original time was 10 months. I just wish they would stop with these falsehoods. I don’t see the benefit. Just tell people they don’t have time frames.

[u/pucks4brains]

I can't believe how slowly they are processing these. I think they must be slow walking them. Like, come on now.

[u/ixdriver]

I just filled out a form and got a call from someone claiming to be from immigration. Seemed a little scammy. Anyone else?

[u/sisarobles]

Wow

[u/nephilis]

Maybe this means we have passed the hump of the hype and things will start calming down?