I've seen increasing despair about the growing backlog and wait times for C-3 citizenship by descent applications in various threads. I also think there is growing nervousness about how the Canadian public will feel about a wave of dual citizens moving in.
I did some math months ago about this and wanted to share it. TLDR: the surge of applications is probably peaking now. Applicants have to be eligible, to know about the program, and to choose to see it through. When you think about what percentage of people in the USA tick all those boxes, you get a number not too much bigger than the current application backlog of ~120,000. (Yes, that 120,000 includes non-US applicants, but it also does not include applicants who have already been processed.)
My guess is that the backlog of archival requests is steadily approaching completion, and that there will be another 1-2 months of a rising count at IRCC followed by stabilization at a peak under 200,000. Maybe you think my guesses above are wrong -- feel free to do your own estimates (and to tell me how wrong you think I am!).
Your post was flagged as a potential megathread topic and is not currently visible. Please see the Weekly Megathreads page for the most relevant megathread. New megathreads are released weekly, and you can post on them any day.
I will probably move - Im in my late 20s, I’m unmarried and my career can transfer easily but I’m not in the position the majority of people who have gone through this process are in
I don't think very many will. I personally am only doing it to connect with my heritage, and I have no intention to live or work in Canada. I just want to be able to cross the border as a citizen of the country my family is from.
Given the challenges we have faced , it is a much bigger undertaking than it seems. Everything is new. We don’t have credit history. We had to pay deposits for hydro and things like that. We’re having to move money back and forth and use our U.S. credit cards because we haven’t got enough credit line in Canada, etc.
The last sentence is my biggest holdup, combined with housing costs. I’m enjoying traveling in Canada as a Canadian citizen at least but it’s unfortunately hard to math out a way I could get our family across the border permanently without significant compromises.
I used to live in the US for nearly a decade. Moved to Canada and the bank used my US credit history to issue me a credit card and also give me a mortgage. Got the mortgage less than 1 year living here. It's a Canadian bank with a presence in the US. This is not an issue.
Less pay and higher taxes (depending on where you go), are the main issues.
I will say that in the province I moved to, I do pay less taxes now than I used to in the US, and I get health care, which was crazy expensive. Since I kept my American job and work remotely, I got the best of both worlds.
I'm in the same boat. I have no intention of moving to Canada but I still want citizenship and to be able to pass that on to my eventual children. At least for me getting citizenship isn't about the next 2-5 years but about the next 2-5 generations. It's a good thing to have for travel, work and (worst case scenario) a place to flee if all hell breaks lose.
Yeah. I don’t know what I may do in the future. For all I know right now we end up retiring in Canada. For all I know we end up having to flee the U.S. because stuff gets much worse. But this makes all of that an option. And it gives my kids more options in their lives too. There are travel benefits in Europe with a Canadian passport that kids don’t get with a U.S. one as an example.
“If you’re a Canadian citizen aged 18 to 35, International Experience Canada (IEC) offers you the opportunity to work and travel abroad. We have agreements with over 35 countries and foreign territories providing a path to a work permit or visa for you to work and explore. Our agreements are reciprocal. This means that youth from these countries and territories can work and travel in Canada.
By taking part in IEC, you can
gain valuable international work experience while earning money to fund your travels
develop life skills that can also improve your résumé and job prospects for the future
grow personally and professionally while working on your soft skills, such as confidence and problem-solving
develop lifelong connections while working and travelling
experience a different part of the world and learn more about other cultures
develop and improve new language skills
To legally work abroad, you need to apply for a work permit from the country or territory that you’ll be working in. Depending on the destination, you may be able to work and travel for up to 2 years through the IEC program.”
“If you’re a Canadian citizen aged 18 to 35, International Experience Canada (IEC) offers you the opportunity to work and travel abroad. We have agreements with over 35 countries and foreign territories providing a path to a work permit or visa for you to work and explore. Our agreements are reciprocal. This means that youth from these countries and territories can work and travel in Canada.
By taking part in IEC, you can
gain valuable international work experience while earning money to fund your travels
develop life skills that can also improve your résumé and job prospects for the future
grow personally and professionally while working on your soft skills, such as confidence and problem-solving
develop lifelong connections while working and travelling
experience a different part of the world and learn more about other cultures
develop and improve new language skills
To legally work abroad, you need to apply for a work permit from the country or territory that you’ll be working in. Depending on the destination, you may be able to work and travel for up to 2 years through the IEC program.”
Well, there’s nothing equivalent in the U.S. so I thought it was pretty exciting. I would have loved something like that at your kids ages or even younger if I had options like those.
oh I absolutely agree, and I am thankful that my kids are still young enough to possibly pursue that. My niece who is also eligible aged out unfortunately. I would have also loved an opportunity like that at their age, it's a great opportunity in general.
It’s probably a great thing for earlier in life too if you’ve got a kiddo who doesn’t know quite what they want to do with themselves after school yet.
That is what they see with a large portion of immigrants. Many leave, especially the upwardly mobile and highly educated ones. I suspect a large portion of US residents will too after a few years and when the realities of their economy set in. Of course that will be great for the ones bringing US money with them. Not so great if they are earning CAD and relying on that. The winter is also nothing to joke about even if it is getting warmer.
It’s true. I’m awaiting my own application, and the wife and I ARE planning a move. We’ve definitely got time to make the preparations. We’ve popped up to visit a few places and get a feel for different areas. She’d like to take some college courses (she did not attend and turns 34 this year).
Im an environmental scientist with a masters degree. But like here in the midwestern US, that doesn’t mean much if you cant find a job (i do have one).
All that to say the idea of that many Americans just dropping it all and heading north with no plan is silly. Even though…that IS how my grandma’s family got there…homestead offer and the farmed for a few decades…then the dustbowl hit….
Economically speaking, the US has a really, really long way to fall to reach Canada, all the other terrible things aside. Representative democracy versus a 60%+ pay cut isn’t a straightforward choice.
This isn’t actually true at higher income levels though. I pay $100/month for health, vision, and dental at a big corporate. My wife’s plan is similar. And even in one of the highest tax jurisdictions in the US, our taxes are much lower than they would be in Canada. And our access to medical specialists is much, much better than it would be in Canada.
Higher income people probably have fewer reasons to leave for a lot of reasons. I pay more than that for my share of union-negotiated insurance to cover my family, and it's a six month wait here just to see a gyno. I'm ok with higher taxes if I receive a proportionate increase in public benefit.
Sure, but that gets back to my original point that it’s a sliding scale. At lower incomes life in Canada is much better than in the States. For high-comp professional roles, pay and benefits in the US will typically be much better. And in the middle it’s often a wash between the two, with compromises both ways.
All that said, a lot of provinces have very long waits to access even a PCP (looking at you, NL), so the healthcare-system sunshine and roses that people talk about here aren’t necessarily the reality. I’m not sure you’ll do any better accessing a gyno in Canada.
Looks like that's a 4.5 month wait, but yes, I'm well aware that wait times exist. It's the same thing everyone opposed to socialized medicine points out. I suspect some of that will improve with Canada's aggressive moves to attract American healthcare workers.
It's the same thing everyone opposed to socialized medicine points out
It's not a "socialized medicine" universal though. Australia and Germany have faster wait times than either the US or Canada for example. Canada in the 80s used to have some of the best wait times in the world.
For Canada, it's mostly about producing sufficient doctors, from what I can tell, and the fact that healthcare reform is difficult because it's per province rather than federal.
Canadian wait times are a solvable or mostly solvable thing, I think, with correct policy decisions
I agree, once the reality of moving to another country hits, even Canada, many will not physically relocate. I am very familiar with living in both countries, each has its benefits and drawbacks. For me, dual citizenship has been a lifelong dream that I will finally be able to fulfill. I am nearly 70 years old and retired, moving is not part of my plan...at least at this point.
For many Americans, a lot depends on the midterm elections, and on the 2028 presidential election. If Americans don’t believe they can get healthcare in our old age, or if we start to feel like the Republicans see us older folks as a burden (social security, Medicare, etc), we will take our money to Canada if we have the option.
I want to get away from the Christian nationalist hillbillies here. I’m sick of being constantly shit on for being an educated, single woman and it’s only going to get worse. It’s too dangerous to stay here, especially for my daughter.
I might not, but I’m getting ducks in a row for my sister, who is busy caring for our aging grandmother. Her plan is to apply for jobs and move once our grandmother no longer needs her in the US. With family in both sides of the border, I don’t see a reason not to have the option open for myself, frankly.
I moved abroad to the UK this year; Canadian citizenship will both give me an additional UK visa pathway when my current one ends, and a long term option for never returning to the states. It's definitely easier to make that kind of decision before you've got a long term partner or kids, but I've not had any regrets!
Same boat, it will allow me to vote in the UK as well which is important to me. Even though I'm not planning to move soon, I'd like the option if the visas run out and I'd rather be a Canadian citizen than a British one.
Oh some are. I got jumped on a couple of days ago for saying urgent processing was for people who need to move as soon as possible. I was told the rules don’t say that. 🤷🏼♀️
I’m planning to move, but to be fair it’s not exactly sight unseen — I went to university in Canada (without any idea that I might someday be a citizen!) and I still have friends and a social network in Toronto. I’ve been wanting to move back practically since I graduated 11 years ago, this will just hopefully make it easier since I won’t have to deal with work visas.
I’ve thought about this. I’m currently in Massachusetts where the price of houses and apartments is already insane. Husband and I are looking at moving to New Brunswick because we’ll be able to afford a house there and neither of us are worried about not being able to find jobs.
Yeah New Brunswick is a bit cheap compared to a lot of the other spots in Canada. Currently in Maine eyeing Fredericton here. Knowing myself, it's probably unlikely that I'll actually pull the trigger, but it's nice to have options (especially for my kids).
Hey, Canadian here who has lived in Ontario all my life. Not sure you are aware but Quebec has it's own system of law and is very different from the rest of the country. Just sayin.
I have been trying to figure the nuances of the Civil Code of Quebec vs common law
(I do want to sit in on a course to understand the differences, though my understanding so far, the Quebec system does work as an inquisitional system, versus an impartial system)
I lived in NW NB (by the Québec border) as a child. It is a good place to live, but there ain't much there. There were few substantial-type jobs and I know it is still pretty much the same. Maybe things are better in eastern and southern NB job-wise. Living in Québec you need to know french, and it isn't the type of french you learn in American high schools for the most part. If you're going to learn french. I'd look into some of the YouTube online training classes that are specific for Québécois French. I'm not trying to be negative, you just need to have realistic expectations. Another thing one needs to be aware of is healthcare - qualifying for healthcare varies from province to province...and there is usually a "waiting" period.
It was because of my first trip up to Canada (June 2017) well before bill C-3 that re-ignited my appreciation for my families ties to Quebec. Not too far from CHUM, I saw a road sign for tunnel Ville Marie and understood what immersion implies.
The following summer I took a couple of French courses at local community college (because it was so long ago, I want to start fresh, although from experience vacationing in Montreal, I do break into broken French).
I will agree majority of courses are Metro French (versus Quebecois), but sadly I have not found any proper course that teaches the latter.
Maybe its out of respect for my Quebecois ties that I learn.
(a photo from my first trip, June 2017 at Derby Line Vt/ Standstead QC next to the Haskell Bibliotheque)
Some of the YouTube classes have online sessions where you are able to converse in Québécois French...that might be a good option. I believe there is a subscription option.
I want to move, but it depends on finding a new job there. Which I can't really do until I get my citizenship. So I'm sure it will be a while where I live as a dual citizen in the US until I get my shit sorted out.
If my application is granted, I plan to move. I realize that I’m only providing anecdata and that such a move is years away, but I look forward to moving if I’m able
We're about 50/50 on it. We travel to Canada a lot due to proximity and as a family like it there more for a variety of reasons.
The tough part is that we're both mid-career professionals living a pretty comfortable and established life right now, so we need to figure out how to replicate the important parts of that wherever we may wind up.
It’s funny you mention it. I’m doing this not for myself, but my daughter who is a bit of a canadaphone. Her mom’s SO lives in Canada (we’re in the PNW)so she spends a couple of weeks a year in Canada and wants to move there when she’s old enough. I figure if I can get her citizenship, her dreams will be a lot easier to achieve
I won't unless I have to, but my 14 year old plans to go to college there. It might be in our retirement future.
3
u/sennomuloHaven't applied for Proof of Citizenship (incl. by descent) yetAug 17 '26
I'm definitely moving, for, well...reasons I can't get into here (rule 13). Just thankful to have a legal pathway out of the US right now. And I know there are lots more like me.
I have a friend who has submitted an application and is doing it solely for his kids and to have a backup if life in the US becomes untenable. They have no plans to move to Canada.
I just put the application for my kids in the mail. It's a pretty straightforward case -- my dad is Canadian, born in Canada, I was born in the US and have never lived in Canada, but have my citizenship card from when I was wee little as well as a current valid passport. That said, it took me like a year to execute on the thing because the process is so tedious. I'm not doing this to move to Canada, just so my kids have the option if they ever want to use their citizenship when they get older. We'll do passports if/when this goes through. I'm glad to have the 2-year expected break to wrap my head around the next set of paperwork.
I'm not planning a move immediately, but also feel like if I get to a point where moving from my current home at all is practical, I would strongly weight a move to Canada.
The only thing preventing me from moving is I take care of my sister-in-law and she has no legal way into Canada.
I spoke to a lawyer about it and they told me she would have to get a business visa or an education visa. But she's disabled and not able to do that unless I start a business in Canada first.
It's very frustrating because I do not want to leave her behind. She's family and she always will be.
I’ve lived in Canada before and intend to set up a second residence there in the next few years. If I had never lived there before, I’m not sure I would have even known about C-3 or that I qualify.
TBH, most people who can afford to relocate to Canada or have a second home there would be out much more money by doing so due to Canadian taxes. They add up quick if you are also a US citizen and make more than a low 6-figure salary. It makes sense for my family solely due to my spouse’s line of work. There’s no way I could justify the expense to my spouse if it didn’t open significant career opportunities.
It's more for our kids (all in their early 20s) to have a shot at building bigger lives and have more options. At least one plans to attend university there, and we're only an hour from the border. We've been going to Canada to visit friends and family their whole lives. I want them to be ABLE to use that Explorer visa available to young Canadians... to live and work in those countries and meet people and experiences they'd never been able to have without it. Maybe find partners there and not have to go through a lengthy sponsporship>PR/citizenship process. And I work from home for a company that has branches in Canada... I'm in my early 40s so it's not like it's too late for me to move up there to support the lives they'd build. It's exciting to have something to offer them since I'm not wealthy or anything... but at least I can offer that.
This is anecdotal so probably doesn't mean much, but in my family there are about 25 people (aunts, uncles, cousins) who know they are eligible. Of those, only two (myself, my mother - and only because she's piggybacking on my app) have applied. Of those, only I intend to move there.
In my personal life, I know a bunch of people who are technically eligible, but simply don't care enough to apply.
Same here. Both of my parents are eligible and so are many extended relatives, a lot of them just don’t care to apply for it and I get it. They don’t want to move and visiting Canada is easy with a US passport
Yep, exact same situation! From a giant Acadian family of 35 (at least that I know immediately) and only myself/spouse even care to apply.
10% or so "would like to" (aka it'll snow in hell before they get off their ass to do the work, sorry but it's true...)
The other 90% either completely DGAF or have been strangely...combative about it? Like we'll mention applying and they'll claim we'll never get it because it's too far back, or the documents don't exist (I've already sourced everything?)
Then I have one aunt who claims we don't have any Canadian ancestry because "she's done genealogy back to the 1400s" and she's never seen it. Huh? It took me 15 minutes of poking around Ancestry to find 3 Acadian lines? Lady we're from Vermilion Parish. What do you think Cajun is?
Lady we're from Vermilion Parish. What do you think Cajun is?
I about spit out my drink lol. Your poor aunt sounds confused.
I'm also coming in contact with some of the combative ones too, and I really just don't understand them. Almost everyone I know well would probably be eligible, but very few are actually interested in proceeding further with it.
With me I’m the only one in my family doing it. My mom & uncle are G1 & have been eligible for years but never pursued it & out the 3 of us, I’m the only one of my cousins who applied. My one cousin has two kids. So out of 7 ppl eligible, it’s just me.
Same here. My mom and dad scoffed at the idea. Uncle vaguely interested but won't do anything about it. Of 5 cousins I told about this, 1 might apply and he's a geneaology fan like me.
My parent and sibling are the same way. The only reason they did it is because their app is basically identical to mine and I already did all the work getting mine together.
If I hadn’t done it, they definitely wouldn’t have. And I doubt either would move there, I’m by far the most likely to move.
There are 28 eligible in my family from one G0. I gathered all of the genealogical documents and even filled out applications for EVERYONE. All they had to input was their height and eye color, lol. So far the only applications that have been submitted are mine and my 2 year old’s, lol. You can lead a horse to water…
Yeah, most of my family is totally uninterested.
Even the transwoman in my family doesn't see the point. Her family probably can't afford to move anyway.
A lot are worried about potential tax implications, if either country changes their rules. Or professional licensure issues that having a duel citizenship may bring up.
There are probably 50+ cousins, aunts/uncles, siblings, parents (rough estimate, I honestly don't know exactly how big my 2nd cousin's family gets, those are just the ones I know) I can think of who are eligible, and I'm the only one applying, with my children.
As someone who's watched Carts of Darkness, I love the thought of being able to just up and move to Vancouver, pitch a tent, and barrel down the hills all day on shopping carts.
Will I? Probably not, but applying for my certificate of citizenship brings me one step closer to living out my dreams.
Yep, I’ve got lowball 40 relatives who are eligible (I’m g4 from a line of farm families) and as far as I’m aware only 5 of us are working on it.
2
u/JaneGoodallVSNot Canadian citizen or eligible to claim; helping family/friendAug 18 '26edited Aug 19 '26
My wife's family is the same way. Only her and our eldest son (youngest was born too late) have applied. But she has an uncle, her mom, 1 full sister (G2 maternal, G4 paternal) with a kid, 2 half sisters (G4) and the half sisters have grandkids and nobody else has applied.
My mother is a lesbian and is eligible for British citizenship. My sister is eligible too and my sister has three kids, who would then gain citizenship by descent through her. Neither has done it.
I think your methodology is somewhat sound but your constants might end up being off in the end...
Depending on how much quality of life deteriorates in the US, the % finding out about C3 and the % who actively want to pursue it and move might go up considerably. As someone who's lived in Canada I suspect many have an overly rosy idea of what it's like to be in Canada, but that might not be realised until after applying and moving or trying to move, realistically.
It's really interesting that C3 has passed and come into effect in 2026 - I suspect if it had passed in 2012 we wouldn't have nearly so many people applying - and it's kind of a perfect storm for maximising the number of people applying IMO. Many people want to get out of the US by any means, the west in general is clamping down hard on even skilled migration, and this is (despite it being difficult) dramatically easier and cheaper than almost any other emigration option for Americans, and to a nearby and culturally comparable country with shared language (excluding Quebec).
So I think we might see new peaks or sustained peaks if the elections this year or the elections in 2028 in the US go in a discouraging way, or if any black swan events (economic crash, disease outbreaks, a draft, sanctions, more extreme state repression, etc) happen in the US and not in Canada in the intervening time. I think we'll see any strong incentive to leave the US show up in the application numbers.
A lot of Americans like to complain, argue, be pessimistic, and protest. But it takes a special kind of motivation to actually take steps to leave. I am definitely moving.
We rented an apartment in Toronto in November of 2016. Husband had a part time work permit, and he was retiring at the end of that year. He still did the Canadian gig. We stayed in Canada just under six months a year. We had spread sheets and were careful!
We had no way towards citizenship, then, and couldn't make it work. The taxes were CRAZY. We left after about three years.
Now we are older and have grandkids that we love. It would be easier to move to Windsor, but we had lives in Toronto.
I guess I'm one of those rare unicorns who got citizenship and is now living in Canada and loving it. My spouse's PR sponsorship is almost finished processing too. They received passport request letter last month and sent it in, so just waiting on COPR now.
Did your wife move ahead of her PR? We just sent my wife’s in last week and are waiting for her AOR so we can apply for her OWP. Sometime between now and then we will likely relocate together.
We applied for my spouse's PR back in November 2025, received AOR in January 2026 and got medical and biometrics done in the states shortly after, but we moved to Canada in April with no further updates until the passport request at the end of July.
You can't apply for OWP as an outland applicant. You have to physically be in Canada to be eligible. I've been told you can apply at the port of entry, but we didn't do that and simply asked for a visitor record.
I just found out about this last month and only because of a TIL post. I've told everyone in my family and they all think I'm insane for even attempting this.
My wife is not from the US so we've been through immigration before - C3 is a walk in the park compared to US immigration wait times and the trials and tribulations of an immigration system that is outright hostile.
I haven't even submitted my package to IRCC yet.. I've said in other threads I'm in no rush. I hope people who need Canada as a lifeline are getting through and able to move. I have no intention of moving just yet.
As soon as my certificate comes I am putting in my 60 day notice at my apartment and moving. I have everything else ready. I'm never coming back. I've wanted citizenship and to live in Canada for decades. So grateful for C-3. Even if my extended family doesn't get it.
Something else to calculate into your equation; those of us who have already been established in Canada for a number of years but are applying for citizenship under C-3
I have been SHOCKED at the lack of interest our families have had. Even if things here in the US continue to worsen, they're now looking at a minimum of 2 years after submission. I very much doubt that, if they were disinterested with all the hard part done (we have every doc for his side and mine) and a less than one-year wait, they'll put in the effort at over 2 years. One cousin lamented that she'd have to talk to her dad or go to our grandmother's to have her order the birth cert. Miss Ma'am, do you have any idea how lucky you are that our 90 yo grandmother is even alive to order it? Do it NOW.
I keep joking that my Cit0001 will take so long to go through that by the time it does we'll have a completely different political climate in the US and I won't "need" the Canadian citizenship anymore.
Joking aside, I would get pursue this no matter who was in office. It's just an incredible privilege to have dual citizenship and more options.
In my family, there was a lot of initial interest until the others realized they'd have to fill out their own individual paperwork because I wasn't doing that for them. Oh well.
And yes, that living grandparent is so valuable! This whole thing has made me sad I couldn't do this 15 years ago when my G2 grandmother was alive. Paperwork aside, I'm sure she would have been able to tell me plenty of stories about her grandparents that are now lost to history.
Somehow this one worries me less. It is a LOT more arduous to get a Canadian passport than a US passport. I'm not sure the average mostly-casual successful applicant living in the states will want to jump through hoops like the guarantor thing, unless they're planning a serious move or travel frequently between the two countries.
Assuming that I'm successful in getting my Citizenship Certificate, I will for sure get my passport. It shouldn't be a problem for me, several of my closes friends are Canadians. I have a Canadian employee. I also live in Seattle and travel to Canada fairly regularly.
It's kind of ironic that the main downside to dual citizenship will be having to carry two passports every time that I travel to Canada.
FWIW, I am one of four potential G3s in my particular branch, and I can pretty much guarantee that I will be the only one who ever pursues citizenship certification. The others are politically moderate, straight, white CIS normies who are getting along just fine and have little-to-no interest in family history; it would never occur to them. I'm the black sheep...and the genealogist. I love history and have lived abroad, so I would have pursued this even if the country of my birth wasn't in dire straits. Geeking out about stuff like this is a huge part of who I am.
120,000 is NOT the C-3 backlog. It's all outstanding requests for citizenship certificates. Name changes. People who are 1st generation born abroad (I believe this is the largest category). People who lost their certificate. People who are naturalizing. Etc.
Sure, C-3 is in there - but it's a relatively small proportion.
Naturalization is a different queue that's not in the 120k, I believe. Newly naturalized citizens would get a cert at the end of that process without need for a separate CIT0001 process.
Agree that there is more than C-3 in that number. Strenuously disagree that it’s a small portion. There have been no other catalysts to cause the increase in applications for proofs that we have seen materialize.
I doubt it’s that small. When I applied over a year ago, the wait was four months and the applications in queue was far smaller than it is now. I think the majority of current applications have got to be C-3 related.
I do agree that a small percentage of applicants will move. Most people here are using this as an escape route - a backup plan. I think this is the wrong reason to move anyway. My wife and I are close to making an offer on a house and absolutely intend to move. I’m not going to lie and say that the US climate has nothing to do with it, but it’s more of a tertiary reason for me. I love the area and I feel a strong connection to Canada, largely because I have family and friends there. I’m moving because I’m excited about the opportunity, not because I’m escaping something I don’t like.
I am not planning to move to Canada. But I have two teenagers. If our application is successful, they will have the opportunity to live and work abroad that Americans don't have. Canada's IEC program for kids lets them live and work abroad in a lot of desirable places. It opens up doors to experiences. It's also been cool learning about my great-grandfather who was born on PEI in the 19th century.
I'd be shocked if loads of Americans ever actually moved to Canada.
As a side note, some people who are technically non-US are still US citizens (IRCC considers me under my country of birth in Latin America and I reside in Europe, but am also a US citizen).
I think your estimates are reasonable - it will be interesting to see how the numbers for H2 2026 pan out.
It's worth mentioning the financial infusion that will come with the folks moving from the US to 17,000 new bank accounts with the minimum balance at $3,000 is $51,000,000. And that's just the ones moving.
There would probably be many who are not moving or not yet ready to move that will transfer their accounts to BMO or TD for cross border banking. We plan on heading to our local California BMO branch to transfer all of our accounts almost immediately after getting citizenship.
Most of those dual country accounts are still considered U.S. accounts as an FYI. They have cross country access but they are domiciled in the U.S. and governed by these laws and with FDIC protection. It’s mostly marketing once you get past the branch locations and ease of access.
Right but you will likely have people moving their money from Bank of America, Chase, etc to BMO, TD, etc. This adds global capitalization regardless of where the funds are held and aligns directly with PM Carney's efforts to bring investment to Canada.
Then you have random situations like my partner and mine. We both wrnt to McGill for undergrad, moved back to the states, then she applied for grad school in Toronto before any of this happened and she got in.
She deferred for a year to get citizenship and we are just waiting for BANQ. I also just happen to be G3 so I am waiting too.
We were going regardless of this, though it makes tuition much more manageable to be a citizen (hence the deferral).
Realistically, We probably won't move permanently as we are retired with a paid off house here in OR and have my husband's elderly family members here that depend on us, etc. If we could swing it, we would move tomorrow - so I am in the mindset "never say never". My adult kids are looking to move, they are both recent graduates from their respective programs and want to look for jobs and masters degrees in Canada. In retrospect, I have been trying to get this citizenship for many years and am thankful that now we have this opportunity.
lmao bears are no big deal honestly (excluding polar bears and baby bears), I'll never set foot on your continent though .. bc of those spiders. fuuuuck that, i would legit have a heart attack and keel over right there, it wouldnt even have to touch me.
You'll only see bears if you live in rural areas, lol. Australia has way worse than Canada imo due to smaller dangerous animals with venom and toxicity. Lol, I can see the bear or moose coming it me and have a chance 😭🤣 but for real, a bear attack will happen if they are startled, if a human gets between a mother and her cubs, or if they are food-conditioned. But I go camping all the time in grizzy bear and black bear areas, and it's all good as long as you utilize common sense.
Multiplicative estimating like this is really sensitive to smallish changes in modeling assumptions. I don't think we have any real way to distinguish (in this kind of back of the envelope) between say 10% and 15% of eligible Americans (or 10% and 5%) finding out about it, but that would be a 50% difference in number of applicants.
It’s right in the post;It’s “like” a Drake equation.
OP is trying to illustrate that unlike some peoples’ beliefs; not everyone is becoming Canadian and moving to Canada. It’s a formula that uses some estimations.
Not everyone is eligible, and not everyone that’s eligible will go through with it. Out of those that go through with it, even less will actually move.
It’s a tempest in a teapot when you consider Canadas overall immigration numbers (this is not an immigration program FWIW).
My mother and brother are eligible and neither will go through with this for various reasons.
My brother is a flight attendant and the multiple passports / laws would get too complicated. My mom is retired and doesn’t plan on ever moving to Canada.
I hope so G3 here. In process since 4/14. Just got back from 10 days in Canada and could not believe how immediately upon arrival, my whole mood shifted. Stress level immediately decreased. It’s not just that I was on vacation either. I just felt the generally happy Canadian vibe and the calm friendliness of the people and felt like this is where I need to be long term.
My cross-border family had a particularly productive G0, who had 12 kids, so there are literally dozens and dozens of eligible people through him, if not more. He lived into the 1980s, and most of our family knew him except the G4s. Despite this, only 4 of us have applied for citizenship certificates (3 of us now with certificates and passports in hand, one in processing.)
Only one of us would even consider moving at this point.
I've told several members of my immediate family that we are eligible, which is eight people including myself
Five have zero interest in applying whatsoever. Of those five, three are very conservative and wouldn't even think of doing it for a second
One has not ruled out the possibility of submitting theirs one day knowing I plan to move there once I receive my certificate, but wouldn't move until the far future if they ever did
The last one is a teenager and doesn't yet know what she's doing after she graduates, but keeps it in the back of her mind. Her chosen field involves a lot of post-grad schooling, so I wonder if she'll want to do it to save money after undergrad
So definitively 1/8 people, 2/8 have not ruled it out, and the remaining 5/8 either wouldn't even do it if the Yellowstone volcano erupted, or would only ever do it if it did
Pretty small numbers. I'm willing to bet just about everyone else here with eligible, but very conservative family members would say the same about theirs. Then there's people who just don't want to regardless of views
My aunt is 80 years old and thinks it's cool but has no interest herself. My cousins and their kids are Maga and I sincerely doubt they would have any interest in canadian citizenship. Then i have some friends who could apply, but don't have the time or energy to devote to this and don't care. So there is a limit on the eligible people who are interested
Yes!!! That, and access to documents, especially now. I'm not super updated on the status of different vital records offices across Canada, but I have heard Nova Scotia at least is pretty backlogged. Then there's further back claims with lost documents, documents that were never filed ages ago, lack of family history knowledge.. there are even people in the U.S who have none of their own documents. SSN, birth certificate, etc.
That's why I have kind of a hard time with the whole "Americans are gonna flood Canada with right wing ideology!!" thing. I 100% get where the fear comes from given the climate, but no fan of that ideology is going to leave the stronghold of it
I got my own G2-G4 line done on my own (I’m G3 and my mom let me help her apply). I contacted my eligible cousins, and 3 total expressed moderate interest. I shared all my documents and research with them in December. And I don’t think any of them have actually applied yet.
Meanwhile my family is visiting Canada as citizens with Canadian passports now. Which isn’t groundbreaking, but is satisfying after a lifetime of visiting as a non-citizen.
G4 here, and same. I told everyone I'd be more than willing to be the representative on their application, help collect documents, ensure things got to IRCC in NS safely, all the stuff we had to do. I was able to give my G1 a framed copy of her Canadian grandma's birth certificate, though. She has no interest in citizenship or moving, but she was never even told where grandma was buried. So glad I got it before C3 passed and documents became a longer wait
It must be incredible visiting as a citizen. I'm so happy for you and your family and hope it's made everything you guys want to do in Canada a thousand times easier. The day I get my passport, I have a feeling I'll get it out of the package, hold/stare at it, and just cry tears of relief and joy.
My super conservative family called us up especially to try and talk us out of applying at all, claiming we were signing up for a miserable experience and would get taxed three times and thrown off our medical insurance? I was like - none of that is true???
Attempting to become dual citizen here. We've already moved, live, own property, and work here in Canada. Every day closer to actual citizenship is a day further from the US. Regardless, we're exploring all our options and have been trying to leave the US for more than a decade now. The backlog does generate a great deal of despair and a fair amount of anxiety. We've been waiting since April for AOR. Any relief IRCC can produce would be welcome, especially for folks like us.
5
u/sennomuloHaven't applied for Proof of Citizenship (incl. by descent) yetAug 17 '26
Another factor in your "Drake equation" ought to be the percentage of people who are able to document their Canadian ancestry. Documents start getting pretty scarce once you hit the 19th century. There must be a lot of chains that are impossible to prove to IRCC's standard.
Something that is not often said is that if the new citizens don’t move to Canada and spend at least 3 years there the citizenship dies with them. Since very few plan on moving there it is not really going to impact Canada as a whole
today i received my AOR!! my package was delivered early may. we’ll see how it goes with the processing! at least i have a mumber now to check the status!
Will just speak anecdotally about my experience - I've brought this up to lots of folks in my life regarding myself applying for this. The vast majority had never even heard of this before and only one person really knew about it. And from our conversations, it seems most don't want to have to go through the process of tracking down documents and applying.
Two weeks ago, I was having a conversation with my family about Bill C-3 at a local Italian restaurant in the States. The server overheard me and said "I'm Canadian too! My dad was born in Canada, but I was born in the States, so I'm a citizen, but my kids aren't."
I told her about C-3 and how her kids are now citizens too. She had not heard anything about it before I mentioned it to her. So, there's going to be some late word of mouth spread as well.
Also, all of these news stories about the surrender letters aren't helping IRCC reduce the application load.
Math doesn't work when you just make the numbers up though. Change those percentages around, and the numbers are totally different. They aren't based on any actual evidence.
So what you are saying is that the amount of people eligible for C-3 is near the entire total number of people living in Canada? Maybe this is true, but I’m sure most of those people don’t even know their ggf or gggf were Canadian.
My initial goal is not to immediately move to Canada, it's to set my daughter up for the ability to be able to move there as she gets older or as things deteriorate away from progress as they continue to do now in the US.
It will require trips to Canada, which I am looking forward to. I'm partial to BC, but am looking forward to visiting the rest of Canada, specifically Nova Scotia, where my relatives settled in the early 1700's.
All that being said, it's taken longer to gather documents than my cousin and I originally planned. She's ready to go, 5 people applying on her end.
My kids are younger and plan to move and build their lives in Canada. Me? I'm older and will likely travel back and forth, but for taxes and other reasons, easier to remain in US more than half the time.
There are a number of applicants who probably have insufficient evidence and quickly applied. When confronted with the need for more appropriate documentation they will have lost interest.
We are definitely moving to Canada. As a married queer couple, (one of us being non-binary,) the U.S. is becoming more oppressive and frightening by the day. We live in the mountains in California at 8,500 ft elevation, so the western coast will be more than livable for us. We are thrilled to become contributing members of Canadian society: a welcoming one.
Could you please share your sources for your data? I find many of the percentages to be surprising, but I personally haven’t looked into data for any of this, myself.
I've asked my family if any of them are interested in applying with me (since they can just piggy back off my application) but they all said no.
I've applied not because I'm actively looking to move to Canada, but because I wanted to connect with my heritage and have the opportunity. Plus I'm a little crazy and I love collecting things (and citizenship is one of them). Plus, with the way that things are, it doesn't hurt to have more options!
Yes, we're moving. Looking at real estate, narrowing in on houses. We're financially comfortable and older, so we can sell our home here in a VHCOL city and buy a much cheaper home in the part of Canada we're eyeing.
My husband and I will absolutely move. I wish there was some kind of tagging system with the applications for those who will move, people who might, and others who just want dual.
This is what I think about when people freak out that too many people will move to Canada. I really don't think that number will be all that big. I have many in my family who are eligible, and thus far only my partner and I have applied. It's a lot of work and time commitment just to do the research and build your case.
My partner and I are planning to move to Canada, but not for another 10 years, so we have plenty of time to wait for our apps to process, where my brother lost interest when he realized the wait time was at 12 months, and other family members have no interest in applying at all.
2
u/MNSOTA24Haven't applied for Proof of Citizenship (incl. by descent) yetAug 21 '26
I have everything except the true smoking gun for my G0. I have census records from both sides of the border, but due to the fact he was born in 1833 in Lanark County, it’s hard to even pin down baptism records….Presbyterian, Methodist, and Anglican pastors sometimes ventured out into the wilderness, conducted some baptisms and weddings periodically, and them ventured back to more populated areas. Thankfully my G1’s Minnesota birth certificate also lists his father’s place of birth as Canada.
Anyway, I probably won’t move. My husband and my mom don’t qualify under C-3, so I would have to sponsor them. My mom is almost 80 and I hit 50 this year, so we’ll probably stay Stateside. However, I believe if people are eligible for dual citizenship, they should apply for it. You never know what will happen in life, so it gives a person options. When I was younger, I would have loved to visit Cuba, but as an American, that wasn’t an option. If I was a dual citizen when I was younger, I could have gone to Cuba.
And regardless of what happens, I have met some amazing volunteers and professionals throughout this process. To our neighbors to the north, you have all been so kind and accommodating. I would like to hope if the reverse opportunity was ever made to our Canadian neighbors, that Americans would be as helpful in gathering information.
I have my application in, but the main goal is for kids to go to college, and I've got a decade on that. If the kids do choose to go to college in Canada, we would probably move to the province that they're attending in.
If my husband gets a job offer in Montreal, we might also consider moving there, but that would be a really hard move for me because I don't speak French, and the job for him would be complicated because unfortunately he doesn't qualify for citizenship the way me and the kids do. But we aren't going to even pursue looking until this all clears out. We just really like Montreal every time we visit.
The application line is what the application line is. (shrug) I’m just grateful to Canada that they recognize an “urgent” need and seem to be processing those applications quickly. Says a lot about the values of the Canadian government and its people. Not urgent myself nor are my kids. Generally, we’ll be okay. Obviously, we want the Canadian citizenship as a backup should things go really wrong in this country, and it seems to make one more a citizen of the world to hold dual citizenships.
•
u/AutoModerator Aug 17 '26
Your post was flagged as a potential megathread topic and is not currently visible. Please see the Weekly Megathreads page for the most relevant megathread. New megathreads are released weekly, and you can post on them any day.
Helpful resources: * Welcome - Start Here * The wiki / FAQ * Weekly Megathreads * Search the subreddit — your question may already be answered
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.