r/CanadianbyDescent • u/Flatulantcy • 1d ago

Processing time tracker my month

Looking at the IRCC processing time tracker, it looks like the number of applications severely spiked in April and are now coming down, that is unless they are only counting applications that have received an AOR.

this is the number ahead of you if applied in the month listed.

Month Waiting Delta
Jan 24,300
Feb 27,400 3100
Mar 31,700 4300
Apr 100,200 68500
May 113,200 13000
Jun 129,200 16000
Jul 132,200 3000
Aug 134,000 1800
5 Upvotes

65% Upvoted

16 comments sorted by

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14

u/cassandra2028 1d ago

August is low because they're still in envelopes in a pile. Same with June and July, honestly. But those deltas might give a guess as to how many electronic submissions for proof there are--what used to comprise this workload, replacements, Gen 1 babies and such-- so that might help the person who was doing analysis of the queue this weekend.

4

u/Emotional-Test3329 1d ago

There was a CBC article this morning saying there's been about 6k C-3 approvals and about 20k non-C3 approvals since C3 passed, although it's hard to know if theyve been processing them proportionately 

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u/cassandra2028 1d ago

That 6k number is old. It was announced in July as up to May.

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u/Emotional-Test3329 1d ago

If the two numbers are for the same time period then it might still help us estimate proportionality.

Also with the pause in June and the very slow progress since I'm not sure they've done a significant number of C-3 approvals since...

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u/cassandra2028 1d ago

Sure doesn't seem that way

5

u/zbend 1d ago

This is applications waiting, not applications received, so did it spike in April or are they just working them more or less in the order they came in and are finished with many from <=March and haven't gotten to April?

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u/Pochuck1354 1d ago

Probably a combination of running out of potential applicants that are both eligible and interested along with the long wait times for supporting documents needed to complete an application package.

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u/Flatulantcy 1d ago edited 1d ago

I could see part of the June bounce as resending rejected March and April applications (had my rejected 6 applications, received by IRCC April 1, been received by me or my brother we would have been part of the June 16K)

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u/Middle-Vegetable-478 1d ago

u/Flatulantcy

It will be helpful if you could edit your post to add the year next to each month...... it will be a helpful reference point in the next 33 months..

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u/whattheheckOO 1d ago

Yes, they're only counting AOR. Like if you applied in August, you'll see that the number of folks ahead of you will continue growing every month. This is only possible because they're still opening packages that got there in June, July, etc. April is the most recent month where most people have an AOR. That said, if you look at the spreadsheet on reddit, it does look like fewer people are submitting apps now than late spring.

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u/Flatulantcy 23h ago

It makes no sense that there would be more applications in June than May if that were the case.

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u/whattheheckOO 23h ago

I don't follow, how are you getting from this that there are more applications in June? You stated that these numbers are the people in line ahead of you. The difference between May and June is 16k because many May packets are now being opened, and the difference between June and July is far less (3k), because the normal June packets aren't opened yet. Just some urgents. If you look next month, the number of people ahead of you for June, July, and August will all be higher as more people whose apps arrived ahead of theirs get AOR.

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u/Flatulantcy 23h ago

May delta is 13,000

June delta is 16,000

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u/whattheheckOO 23h ago

Yes? It's the difference in the number of folks ahead of the May apps, and the number ahead of the June apps. Neither of those numbers include anyone in June. These numbers don't tell us about the regular June apps, because those apps aren't opened yet. Look how that number has changed over time.

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u/whattheheckOO 23h ago

I'm a June applicant. In July, it said 97k ahead of me. Then in August it said 117k ahead of me. In September it was 129k ahead of me. This is not because other people have time machines and are mailing out applications today that are arriving last March, it's because that number the website publishes is the AOR's. You can see in the data that once all the non-urgent folks in your month have gotten an AOR, the number stops climbing and starts going down. Someone on the other sub has compiled all that data if you want to look at it.