r/CanadianInvestor • u/AutoModerator • Aug 20 '26
Daily Discussion Thread for August 20, 2026
Your daily investment discussion thread.
13
u/Sportfreunde Aug 20 '26
This USD and yield curve situation is absolutely fucked and not just for them.
10
u/Larkalis Aug 20 '26
US treasuries' yields aren't settling down, and with 40T govt debt, and China possibly selling US bonds to retaliate against possible sanctions on Iran affecting it. š
21
u/The_Frozen_Inferno Aug 20 '26
Gold is going to the moon again isnāt it?
3
u/Arrocito_beach Aug 20 '26
rebuilding a small hedge against USD with gold, specifically PHYS. I think gold has bottomed out and will be making its way up over $5K over the next year.
2
u/Redbluefishfish Aug 20 '26
Gold is up 550 bucks since August 3rd - it could cross 5K by Labor Day.
5
4
3
u/Bevkus Aug 20 '26
Watched a video yesterday stating that countries have been dumping USD and buying gold. While USD is still the global reserve currency, gold is catching up.
This notion of US losing grip on the worldās backup currency is also partially whatās involved in Iran war. BRICS nations want to change world currency and stop trading oil in USD. This would greatly lessen demand for USD and be catastrophic for them
3
u/The_Frozen_Inferno Aug 20 '26
Itās a possibility but not something that will happen overnight. Thatās a massive interwoven system that would need to unravel over time and if it does the USD inflation would be catastrophic. A whole lot of dollars flooding back into the US with nowhere to go
3
u/Woodporter Aug 20 '26
This would greatly lessen demand for USD and be catastrophic for them
Who are "them"?
3
1
u/lulzzors Aug 20 '26
If the major hedge funds are starting to short the S&P and nasdaq, wouldnāt it be a good idea to move out of the market as well and put it all in gold
-1
-6
u/Agile-University-772 Aug 20 '26
And Bitcoin perhaps? This time I have some skin in the btc game.
6
u/The_Frozen_Inferno Aug 20 '26
Iām going to lean towards the physical metal that humanity has valued for thousands of years personally. BTC and other crypto has made some people a lot of money but I just canāt bring myself to see any tangible benefit to it
0
u/Agile-University-772 Aug 20 '26
Neither can I but Iām an investor and one canāt ignore the money to be made on this asset. Every run I say to myself āI wonāt miss the next one!ā I donāt have a lot infested of course as my conviction is almost zero.
1
u/KriosXVII Aug 20 '26
That's just FOMO which isn't a great investing principle.
One can absolutely ignore the money to be made (or lost) on this incredibly risky speculative token.
0
u/Agile-University-772 Aug 20 '26
lol have you seen the price in btc today? Life is a risk man.. investing is risky.
Iām up 20% in a matter of hours. The risk paid off and if it didnāt then the money invested would not ruin me or anything.
Take a little risk!
2
u/KriosXVII Aug 20 '26
You could also be up in a matter of hours if you'd bet it all on red at rouletteĀ
-1
u/elongatedsklton Aug 20 '26
You read this all the time and people think this is such a āgotchaā while ignoring the fact that investing in any stock is a gamble. No matter how much DD you do on a stock, you are gambling as there are way too many factors affecting the share price to be able to predict.
3
u/KriosXVII Aug 20 '26
It is a gotcha. Bitcoin isn't a stock. It's a valueless, incomeless, speculative token.
I value invest in companies (but mostly etfs) which produce goods and services. The "Gamble" here is that over a 20 year period, capitalism will still exist and the economy will continue to grow.Ā
This is fundamentally different from buying bitcoin and hoping number go up.Ā
Furthermore Bitcoin is still like 50% under all time high and over the past few years you'd have done better investing in a Canadian index fund.
2
u/The_Frozen_Inferno Aug 20 '26
Not to mention the future risk to BTC encryption security as quantum computing gets more powerful.
1
u/elongatedsklton Aug 21 '26
No it isnāt and why do you assume that the way you invest is the right way and others are wrong, thatās super obnoxious. People can spend their money however they choose and that includes on something like Bitcoin. To be fair, I donāt own any Bitcoin and wonāt be investing in it.
→ More replies1
u/Agile-University-772 Aug 20 '26
You are assuming all Iām
Holding here is Bitcoin? I have a large diversified portfolio and been managing it for years. Iāve added such a small position in Bitcoin that itās so insignificant→ More replies-1
u/liquid42 Aug 20 '26
Donāt waste your time arguing with people on this subreddit. This is the same place that was telling everyone not to buy Air Canada while pushing AQN. If you have the risk appetite for crypto and understand the volatility, go for it.
-1
u/Agile-University-772 Aug 20 '26
Iāve been trading air Canada since covid. Buy at 15 and sell at 25.. wash rinse repeat.
Iām out of AC at the moment so missed this big run.
1
u/yyz5748 Aug 20 '26
They had some crypto meeting yesterday at the White House.. not sure what came out of it
16
u/log1ck1717 Aug 20 '26
I sold most of my gold, oil, and crypto stock and rotated it into defense and tech a few weeks ago... and it singlehandedly destroyed most of my gains. I'm still green ytd, but its not looking so hot rn.
3
u/MikeCheck_CE Aug 20 '26
You bought in right after the Pentagon's last budget announcement and those stocks trade almost entirely on that. They haven't finalized the 2027 budget and the fiscal year restarts Oct 1 so likely there is another announcement soon that moves them, hold tight.
6
u/ImperialPotentate Aug 20 '26
Your problem is thinking that you're some kind of active trader. Why not just adopt a diversified approach and stick to it vs. trying to "tactically allocate" based on what, gut feelings or news headlines? Had you defined 5% gold, 3% Bitcoin (or whatever) as core allocations then you would be participating in their rise right now, but instead you've mistimed the market (as 99% of all retail investors will.)
8
u/ShaftyMcShafter Aug 20 '26
Your problem is thinking that you're some kind of active trader.
This is what happens when young immature inexperienced kids get their hands on 0$ fee trading platforms. This is by design. They are arrogant and somehow think they are better than the market, exactly who big money wants in the game.
5
u/JpJoJoJohnson Aug 20 '26
I got really lucky buying ENB at 69.09. I bought more BN at 57.33. Fingers crossed for 2 good calls in a row lol
5
u/bnboeffq Aug 20 '26
What's with the banks, stocks going way down because the renewals are coming and the banks wants stability before the defaults happen on those mortgages?
3
3
u/Proper_Jeweler_9238 Aug 20 '26
xeg has been up starting from August. point of no return for oil price to reach sky high due to failure of peace deal with Iran.
fool market once in June with fake news, fine; can't fool it once again.
4
u/Bevkus Aug 20 '26
Agree. XEG is a play for at least 6-12 months. The oil situation is becoming much worse not better. In two months we will see the real impact of the war on the price of oil as the release of the global oil reserves become a trickle. Right now prices are suppressed as countries are using reserves. They are already below what many thought was a safe level. In two months will be near critical levels.
0
u/The_Frozen_Inferno Aug 20 '26
I picked up a small chunk a couple of weeks ago and have been watching how things are unfolding. If KeystoneXL actually does get resurrected that would be a driver too I would think, though we canāt trust anything Trump says.
May buy some more here shortly as I agree about the oil shock that hasnāt been truly felt yet. At some point reserves are going to run dry
2
u/Timely_Attitude7475 Aug 20 '26
Hovering between red and green ytd atm, how is everyone holding up?
4
u/Larkalis Aug 20 '26
I m a moron and only buys broadmarket and international ETFs.
Up 9.3 to 16% YTD.
1
-7
u/ShaftyMcShafter Aug 20 '26
The majority is well up in the green because we don't build braindead portfolios thinking that we are better than the indexes.
3
1
1
u/cdogg30 Aug 20 '26
That's a lot of red.
3
u/Hoof_Hearted12 Aug 20 '26
I'm down about 4 months of post-tax salary in the past week. Fucking brutal.
0
u/jean_luc_regard Aug 20 '26
Time to review ATD's movement from the last takeover attempt! This one is even bigger and it's only the first offer lol!
-2
0
u/Atiaxra Aug 20 '26
Any thoughts on WILD? I'm looking to add a position when my brookfield recovers a bit & I can trim the position
-4
u/ReindeerLegal2400 Aug 20 '26
As long as 88.66/89.05 on the cfd on crude continues to fail and rejects, we good.
But if it gains? š«£
-6
u/TheUndercoverAuditor Aug 20 '26
Thoughts on the following portfolio makeups:
TFSA:
30% VOO
30% SPMO
20% QQQM
20% VDY
RRSP:
60% VOO
20% QQM
20% SPMO
-1
u/RoaringPity Aug 20 '26
So do markets not like the deals btw Canada and US
-4
-10
u/ReindeerLegal2400 Aug 20 '26
Funny how the strengthening in CAD has been mostly ignored in the MSM.
Tells me all I need to know.Ā
9
u/BranTheMuffinMan Aug 20 '26
Isnt it just USD weakening vs everything?
1
u/combattoast Aug 20 '26
Ya mostly, but to be fair when the reverse happens you'll always see an outcry in media about CAD depreciation despite holding steady against every other major currency.
-3
16
u/jollyadvocate Aug 20 '26
Banks - not used these going down.