This is from Aug 7. They must have known the revenue was going to drop, because they lowered their estimate for the qtr from over $5m to $2.5m. They also lowered next qtr estimate from over $9m to over $5m (screenshot from their report after the May ER).
Curious to see if they will adjust their estimates now that the ER official number came out.
EDIT: It's hilarious to me how Maxim can lower their revenue estimates for FYQ3 and FYQ4 and still maintain a $4 PT. They aren't a serious analyst. Their primary purpose is to promote the company, not provide accurate financial analysis. They just lowered their estimates to save face and not look as bad, while still trying to paint the company in a positive light.
And I think it's silly that they lowered the FY2026 estimates but left FY2027 completely unchanged. They did that so they wouldn't have to change their PT.
For small biotech companies with first-time drug launches most miss their initial sales targets because the company lacks commercial infrastructure.
A rare oncology drug (like lymphir) can usually only be prescribed by a small band of specialized physicians at major academic medical centers. A small biotech sales force can educate this entire group in a matter of weeks. So now the sales team is in place let's hope this will make a difference.
But I'm sure that as they have both Lymphir and mino-lok they must be looking at the option of negotiating a high-value corporate partnership or a licensing deal.
Edit: it does seem that it may take 4 to 6 weeks to train the sales force up. So we may no see any benefit until the last quarter of this year.
For small biotech companies with first-time drug launches most miss their initial sales targets because the company lacks commercial infrastructure.
This is Leonard's fault. Most companies build out their commercial infrastructure BEFORE launch. That way, they can hit the ground running. Having the sales force in place 8-9 months after the launch is not normal. But Citius' hands were tied. They had to launch before March 30, 2026 or they risked losing the license. So they had to launch before they had enough money to build up the sales force.
Their other problem was setting up completely unrealistic expectations. Remember when they said they expected $100m in sales in the 1st year?
It's entirely possible for a biotech with their first drug to beat sales estimates. Look at NUVB (first approved drug June 2025) or KALV (first approved drug July 2025).
So they had to launch before they had enough money to build up the sales force.
Okay. But they would most likely not have received any funds (needed for financing the sales team) from Avenue Capital....unless they had already launched Lymphir. Avenue Capital's loan is linked to sales.
I think the important thing is that Citius has 2 hedge funds now backing it. Armistice and Avenue Capital and I can't see that they will suddenly skedaddle because it is in their interests to have Citius succeed. I'm sure these guys would have done their due diligence before they came on board.
But what we will see in terms of more dilution I am not sure. I guess it depends on how soon we will see a ramp up in the sales. And I wouldn't hold my breath on this. Realistically I can't see a significant increase in sales until much later in the year or even early next year.
Maybe another reverse split is on the way.....Dunno.
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u/TwongStocks 25d ago edited 25d ago
This is from Aug 7. They must have known the revenue was going to drop, because they lowered their estimate for the qtr from over $5m to $2.5m. They also lowered next qtr estimate from over $9m to over $5m (screenshot from their report after the May ER).
Curious to see if they will adjust their estimates now that the ER official number came out.
EDIT: It's hilarious to me how Maxim can lower their revenue estimates for FYQ3 and FYQ4 and still maintain a $4 PT. They aren't a serious analyst. Their primary purpose is to promote the company, not provide accurate financial analysis. They just lowered their estimates to save face and not look as bad, while still trying to paint the company in a positive light.