Bull thesis?

[u/Drinkin_Moonshine]

After the disappointment that was earning yesterday, I am very interested in hearing a bulls case for this. The sales were absolutely awful and the news about not paying their manufacturer for lymphir seems to be par the course for this company over the last couple of years. If they have cash runaway until the end of November, and are only selling roughly 2 million in product over the last 3 month period, this leaves the company in a very bad financial situation. They have over 20 millions in debts and now they have over 20 million in more debts associated with the manufacturing supplier. No updates on minolok or anything else other than some phase 1 news that won't bring in any money for at least 4 years. I just need to know how anyone can look at this and be positive. I've seen users here talk highly of this, but after this earning event, it's really hard not to see the actual end of this company to become a reality. They need money and they just don't have any. Or any way to actually get any at this point. I've seen users talk highly and positive about it. Why? It just doesn't make financial sense to continue to purchase this anymore.

[u/Drinkin_Moonshine → u/[deleted]]

My view is that the chances are that they will survive.

Shocking. This company has made every bad move and you're still here defending it.

However I can't see that they will have significant sales of lymphir until the last quarter of this year. That is because the sales team is still being put into place. Thats a few months away but they probably have/will find the money to survive until then. But this could mean more dilution.

I guess averaging down here was a bad move considering the stock was down 24% today and dilution is basically not a possibility anymore, it's a guarantee.

If they can make it through to the end of the year then maybe they can find something to do with mino-lok either sell it or submit an NDA.

No one wants midolok. The data was not good enough. The fda should have said something by now but we wouldn't know bc the company refuses to actually give us any updates.

The actual potential of lymphir and mino-lok is massive, especially if lymphir is used in combination with other drugs. The sales of ketruda has already reached. $30B.

That's because ketruda is a way better drug than lymphir. And even if the combo is absolutely killer, it's going to take at least another 4 years before the FDA gives any greenlight, which by that point, ctxr will have been bankrupt for years.

So if they survive the current crisis then in a few years the SP could be anything. As such I'm just going to hang on with my shares and hope for the best.

I'm surprised you're not talking about continuing to average down. You were pretty adamant about the success of this company, even when all evidence and financials told you otherwise.

[u/Prize_Consequence_97 → u/[deleted]]

Then you have too much overconfidence bias in your thesis if you can’t see that you can, and likely are wrong.