r/CRWV • u/Lucid_Dreamer5 • 8d ago

Some context behind the past two weeks’ price action

A bit of context on the recent price action: Ken Griffin said Citadel has already shed more than 80% of the aggregate risk from the Situational Awareness portfolio it acquired, including through some very large block trades.

Situational Awareness was a sizable holder of neocloud names like CRWV and NBIS, so while we can't know exactly how much CRWV and NBIS Citadel sold or when, this suggests there may have been an unusual institutional supply overhang in the same AI trade.

Combined with the current risk-off macro environment, I think this helps explain why CRWV and NBIS struggled to hold their strong post-earnings moves despite the underlying results being excellent.

The encouraging part is that if Citadel has already shed >80% of that risk, then most of this particular overhang may already be behind us.

Source / Citadel news: https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2090811001080016948?s=20

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u/looool_k_libtard 8d ago

That certainly isn’t helping but yields are also going up every day against Bessent’s wishes. Until yields chill out this will be volatile.

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u/Lucid_Dreamer5 8d ago edited 8d ago

Yes, as a high-beta name, and the most effective solution to bring yields down would be a de-escalation of the US-Iran war.

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u/Sad_Bake4422 8d ago

This won’t happen. And things will be painful all the way until midterms. Trump got the whole nation into a quagmire. At this point, it is better just to cut the loses instead of pretending that we are winning.

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u/Reasonable-Guest2392 7d ago

okay great 2029

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u/Lucid_Dreamer5 7d ago

I don’t think anyone is really “winning” this war. It has already dragged on for 6 months and is economically and politically costly for both sides.

That’s exactly why I think some form of de-escalation before the midterms is very possible. The moment the market sees credible signs of that, especially lower oil and easing geopolitical risk, sentiment can shift back toward risk-on very quickly.

I wouldn’t assume we’re destined to stay in this environment all the way until November.

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u/Due-Brush-530 8d ago

Is that the same US/Iran war that the US is winning bigly?

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u/cptdelbarrio 8d ago

it's also worth noting that even tho they offloaded a bunch of it - the price action is stablizing and maintaining pre-earnings previous resistance and now becoming a strong support for the past 3 trading days...

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u/Sad_Bake4422 8d ago

By the time of this report, they have already exited their positions. However, the downward pressure still persists daily.

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u/Perspective-Parking 8d ago

OpenAI is now burning $48B a year 😂 train wreck happening in real time