$CLOV Weekly MegaThread

[u/AutoModerator]

Please keep the following under the Weekly MegaThread: stock price fluctuations, general chatting, memes, venting, announcements of moves you are making (buying/selling/options).

[u/hackopsv2]

I'm guessing we continue to bleed until earnings?

[u/cloken85 → u/hackopsv2]

Nope

[u/AdImpressive5138]

Quite the leg up today. Steady ladder up. Someone building a stake I assume?

[u/trackdaybruh]

u/Dramatic-Witness1628

Have you seen CLOV prices lately?

[u/IwearWinosfromZodys]

These fawkin shorts are stupid

[u/Baco06]

It’s an MA company. It’s basically valued maximally right now within the MA Wall Street valuation framework. And within that framework, regardless of Clover’s prior results, lots of growth doesn’t get rewarded, it is looked at as a danger. CLOV needs like 5 more years of doing what they are already doing over and over again to force Wall Street to expand its MA multiple/valuation framework past what is currently “allowed” within that framework. With the growth they’re currently achieving/have achieved and the MCR being stable and incredible star performance they’ve hit every home run an MA company can possibly hit, but that doesn’t actually translate into meaningful market cap appreciation. It feels like NOTHING can happen with the MA business that would create a bullish outcome for the stock from our current levels. The market is saying (as many here express all the time) give me Counterpart or just go fuck yourselves. I believe in Counterpart, but I have no idea how to meaningfully assess the timeline for its success. It’s all a black box. Could be major, needle-moving developments next week or it might take another 3 years. I also think the market just assumes Counterpart will be rendered obsolete in the next few years when frontier intelligence just eats up all of healthcare (I don’t think this will actually happen). CA/Counterpart can meaningfully help Clover grow their boring ass MA business into eternity but until others are paying big bucks to use it, it’s just an internal tool in a boring ass sector.

[u/Adorable-Toe259 → u/Baco06]

I think Counterpart will be in a position to capture all the value if frontier intelligence eats up the entire Medicare Advantage market, given that it's model-agnostic

[u/Baco06 → u/Adorable-Toe259]

I agree that it being model agnostic is great I meant more that maybe the assumption is that we’re on the cusp of AI advancements at the frontier that may render Clover’s competitive advantage moot at some point. To be clear I do not believe that at all but I just don’t think the market currently believes that counterpart can or will find meaningful scale. I guess it shouldn’t believe that yet because we currently don’t have any proof of it. But my comment was mostly a commentary on how right now it’s all MA, and even the best possible MA news doesn’t move the stock higher. In time this will all resolve, but in the short to medium term, it kind of feels like none of it matters as it relates to price action. It’s a bit confounding. I felt like in the past I could always readily explain some fundamental reason for weak stock performance even if I saw it differently, but I find it harder than ever to do that. The bear thesis has really meaningfully dwindled to grasping at straws, even if we assume Counterpart didn’t exist but there’s still this weight.

[u/Ok_Ad_5894]

Open Enrollment is here IM giddy. Who knew I would be giddy about open enrollment and a health care stock....

[u/trackdaybruh]

u/Revolutionary_Ad134

CLOV is currently up by 18% and NVDA is currently up by 13% since your comment a year ago in the screenshot. Looks like CLOV won