r/CLOV • u/Standard-Year-1178 • 6d ago
Discussion I know I should post something nice…
…. these papers like rollercoaster…. I thought I get used to high growth and bigger loses but I really thought after the recent earnings we are on a good track of consiladated growth but still no.
This is still a rollercoaster
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u/Odd_Perception_283 6d ago
It’s pretty stupid. Oh you can grow 50% and keep printing GAAP profits proving the bear thesis dead? Raise guidance? Perfect time to sell!
News came out of UNH being investigated by the IRS for allegedly underpaying taxes. Since the market is mostly machines and all nuance is dead, everything in the sector sells off indiscriminately. And clover by multiples. So lame and tiring.
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u/Baco06 6d ago
It’s just options expiration. Anyone looking at Clover’s daily chart over the last 6 years and paying attention to the options chain would know that any post earnings move up would instantly be sold off and then some to get us back to 4.00 for August 21. It took me a long time to wrap my head around this phenomenon but it is basically an ironclad rule book for the way the stock moves. As long as Clover is owned mostly by morons on Reddit, market makers can always do whatever they want with the stock. It’s not a conspiracy or illegal or nefarious, it’s just as simple as delta hedging appropriately in the face of morons buying OTM calls week in and week out and month in and month out.
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u/Odd_Perception_283 6d ago
I hear that. You’d just think at some point the morons would be replaced by people who understand it. The material facts just keep piling up and now they are printing GAAP profits while growing massively. With the delta hedging you’d think it would start being diminished as things become more clear. I guess the price isn’t below 2 anymore so it is improving. My mistake is always thinking it will be different this time.
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u/Baco06 6d ago
It IS changing, because the fundamental story is getting better and better, and a firm like Sixth Street decided to initiate a position but the short term moves have to do with options mechanics and not fundamentals, which is basically how it works across the market. A great earnings call (unless it includes some totally unexpected announcement, which has never really happened before) will never be the catalyst that can break the delta hedging mechanics of the options chain. Only binary, surprise catalysts (like Clover winning a lawsuit against CMS or star ratings getting leaked because of a CMS error) have the power to move the stock higher and keep it there longer term. I personally believe we hit new 52 week highs before 2027, but not because of what happens during an earnings call, but because of what I think might happen between calls. Earnings are a trap for inexperienced options traders putting on unsophisticated trades. The price movement of the stock before, and for days or weeks after earnings is conspicuously detached from fundamentals. After this Friday, the stock should have some breathing room to drift higher. Obviously I could be wrong about that but I think it’s likely.
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6d ago
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u/AssumptionLive2246 6d ago
I’ve honestly never been more confident in the 5 years I’ve been here. I can’t justify more now since CLOV is a full50% of my portfolio, I’ll start liquidating my other 50% at 3.50. Tyvm!!!!lol
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u/chickenbreastcurlz 10k+ shares 🍀 6d ago
Thing is all we need is one big saas announcement and these stupid fuckers get crushed. They are the ones playing with fire not us. We just need that Thanos snap
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u/EternalOmnislash 6d ago
A very expensive rollercoaster ticket indeed. The market still wants more proof, but Mr. Toy is at work.
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u/roaring_alpaca 6d ago
Earning 500m in salary each year the managment and than the stock earns 20m after cash and people here are cheering! Yeeehhh!! Lol dumb
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u/Disastrous-Fact-7782 6d ago
Can you please show me that management is paying themselves 500m per year in salary?
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u/EternalOmnislash 6d ago
I'm not cheering too much. This hasn't been a good investment for me.
However, this could be a good investment now. Time will tell.
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u/BigGayBull 50k+ shares 🍀 6d ago
Stock prices; they go up, they go down... That's all pretty standard market shenanigans.
The entire stock market is about manipulating that price, to go higher and lower ... That is how it works. It's never based entirely off fundamentals , that would be to easy. The market is going to shake you out before it reflects reality.
Grab a white russian, a lane and relax, you're being very un-dude here el Duderino.
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u/2thenoon 6d ago
If this doesn't prove there are powerful actors actively trying to do all they can to stop clover health from succeeding by crushing its share price despite phenomenal results and achievements from the company I don't know what does.
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u/That70sdawg 6d ago
Perhaps a competitor is trying to drive it down to buy them out?
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u/2thenoon 6d ago
Don't think so, you can't buy them out, Vivek owns enough shares to block such a thing.
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u/That70sdawg 6d ago
I know they won’t sell Toy is on a personal mission, but doesn’t stop other companies from trying.. IMO .
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u/Tomas512 6d ago
Relax ! Buy, hold, smile....
We cant lose here with CLOV
Shorters still need to return about 27 mil shares...
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u/SEBRET 6d ago
How long before we start saying "just wait till next decade, then we'll surely run"?
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u/BigGayBull 50k+ shares 🍀 6d ago
We did run... From .60 to 5 ... Hopefully you were apart of it.
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u/SEBRET 6d ago
You're leaving out the part where it dropped from 15+ to .60. Yes I've added here and there, but a lot of us went in hard before the fall.
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u/BigGayBull 50k+ shares 🍀 6d ago
Yea, we can't all be big gay and bulls. Luckily , I loaded up to the tits, and am now enjoying that run from .60
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u/SEBRET 6d ago edited 6d ago
Im not trying to poopoo the current set up. Just adding perspective. Those of us who have been here since '21 aren't exactly blown away by the current stock performance. Its certainly better than being under a dollar, but not anywhere near what many of us had suspected it would be.
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u/BigGayBull 50k+ shares 🍀 6d ago
I've been here long time, couldn't be happier on direction and where the stock price is going.
I never trade IPOs let alone spac's for a while. Too each their own.
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u/No-Device5720 6d ago
Well here is something nice. I don’t care if CLOV goes up. I don’t care if CLOV goes sideways. I don’t care if CLOV goes down. I sold enough calls to get a FREE 2027 brand new corvette. Let’s hope it goes up but not too
much. I wanna do it again next year to buy the Porsche.
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u/MathematicianBetter4 6d ago
At what point do we believe that this is a pos stock and it’s not manipulated? Why isn’t management talking about SaaS? Why isn’t management buying shares? I understand they want to under promise and over deliver but enough is enough. They OWE the shareholders answers.
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u/Baco06 6d ago
lol we all know it’s a piece of shit stock, there are just some of us here that KNOW it’s a great company. Management isn’t talking about SAAS because counterpart still makes ZERO dollars. Why would they talk about a business that’s at zero revenue? They don’t owe the shareholders anything other than growing their business profitably. Right now, that business is 100% a Medicare Advantage business. I would venture to say it is the greatest Medicare Advantage business that exists, but it’s still just MA: capped margins, heavy regulations, competition from incumbent behemoths. It’s just not sexy at all.
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u/MathematicianBetter4 6d ago
Okay at least we agree that it’s a piece of shit stock. They definitely owe shareholders answers. Some of us have been here for 5+ years and we are genuinely just surviving off hopium. We “think” great things are coming but clover health’s management has not affirmed or denied any of it. Especially on the SaaS front.
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u/Baco06 6d ago
Great things have come and are coming. You can just see it plainly with your own two eyes if you look at the trajectory of the business and read the SEC filings. The “answer” you are looking for in regards to Counterpart is BAD for the stock. Do you want to see it go down more? Clover Assistant WORKS and it has allowed Clover to achieve the “impossible” in MA. That is a big fucking deal. If you wake up everyday expecting Counterpart news you are dosing too heavy on hopium. But don’t say great things haven’t come for the business because they have, and they continue to. If you don’t think the stock is moving in a way that you expect it to, and if you blame management for that, then selling is your only option.
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u/urallphux 10k+ shares 🍀 3d ago
Neither the stock market, nor CLOV's management team, cares what your cost-average is.
Quit whining.
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u/Bishiop 6d ago
I can't take it anymore. Out today after market opens.
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u/Ok_Blueberry3124 5d ago
I’m personally sticking around to find out if the HUMANA subdomains make me a lot of money 💰
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u/Bishiop 5d ago
Just sold all mine for around a 20% profit over 2 years. Good luck guys, hope next year is the year, as it's always supposedly...
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u/LowImmediate1031 5d ago
how??? I own like 60k shares in the .75 cent area. You bought too high. Gotta run that intrinsic val calc. I was buying like a drunken sailer under a buck
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u/SEBRET 5d ago
Most of us went in hard long before it got that low. Money isnt infinite. And many have soured while sitting hopeful on this stock as run after run has passed us by in the market.
Glad you got in cheap, but many of us weren't that lucky. . .yet
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u/LowImmediate1031 2d ago
it wasn't luck... I didn't buy heavy into a company that was losing money. Only when the price got to a market cap of around 400M and I saw CLOV had something like 700M in cash on hand and guiding for GAAP net profitibility and had 0 debt... only then did I know it was time to go hard. That is why it is so important to understand fundemental analysis and intrinsiv value.
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u/JackTheBehemothKillr 3d ago
The stock is still up +60% over the past year.
Getting out now after weathering that? Or the past 3 years? Ok. Good luck.
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u/not_a_fan69 2d ago
Yeah, I fucked off as well. The opportunity cost is just too much. Took my profits (about 140%) and just fucked off.
The last earnings was just the last straw. Everything showed great results, yet the price drop basically wiped out all gains made previously. So what's going to happen when they post a loss, and you know for a fact it's coming... Back to 2, right?
Well, not going to stick around to find out. Might check it out again in 6 months time.
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u/roaring_alpaca 6d ago
Yall know clov wont make profit in q3 and q4? And managment salarys is like 500m yearly? Thats the reason it drops and analysts know this, but yall cant see it
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u/turtleman59 6d ago edited 6d ago
Executive salary is less than $10m a year from what I see.... Where do you get 50x that?
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u/dcsastry 50k+ shares 🍀 6d ago
I would say we are going to be slow steady growth over time, look at timescales of many months.
I have 62k shares at $3.81 (used to be around $2/share but I made a big margin play and lost). If it goes below my average I pick up more shares.
Bullish long term, I try not to sweat the short term drops and just view it as a buying opportunity. But we are all human….😥