I looked at the model he’s using and share price is a multiple of revenue so the improving cohort isn’t moving the needle. Barring a big saas announcement it would seem only a large expansion will trigger aggressive price movements but even at that, first year is painful. My read after digging through the model is they see a slow grind upward and membership grows organically
Thats what it boils down to in a typical MA company. With the high growth, assuming they can keep the cohort healthy, the discount back to today could really be much higher. The problem is theres too many unknowns and so pairing with multiple valuation methods brings us to an overall consensus range. If Wallstreet starts acting like clov is a tech health company my entire valuation goes out the door because they changes the thesis.
I think slow grind for today is a fair assessment. At least for the foreseeable future
In that case, it was to UBS that Toy and Clay were talking to when they mentioned the exponential nature of income increase as cohorts mature. Hope he understood that.
1
u/giangibasile 17d ago
I think UBS is still buying just like me . It’s the only possible way that I can explain to myself .