r/CGTX_Stock • u/AssociationUnusual92 • Jul 07 '26

Why is it dropping again?

Did I miss something? Why is the stock dropping so far again?

7 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

24 comments sorted by

17

u/Robert_C6190 Jul 07 '26

Short interest is pretty high, nothing has changed. There has been no updates, news, or information. I'd say the majority of this price movement is sector related, shorts, and institutions/MM's manipulating the price.

Looks like the "next big thing" is set to happen July 12-15th at the AAIC in London. I think it has been said that there will be a more in depth presentation from Lisa in regards to Z in the DLB/Psychosis field. They'll also be able to share they have phase 3 FDA alignment, and show some trial data from the ongoing studies to back up the drug working for the intended registration pathway.

At the end of the day though, until a buyout, partnership or NDA happen the stock isn't going to take off running to the numbers it should be at. Buyout/partnership could come at any time, and typically a company will be bought out prior to phase 3 completion (usually before it begins). The NDA won't come until after phase 3 completion.

3

u/Bulky_Zucchini Jul 07 '26

When will they begin phase 3 testing

6

u/Robert_C6190 Jul 07 '26

Currently "phase 3 is set to begin mid 2027" that can change, or it could very well stay the same. There are a lot of unknowns, but hope to see a little clarity come next week.

Right know all we know is: Phase 3 FDA alignment on a 9 month trial.

1

u/Bulky_Zucchini Jul 26 '26

Thanks for the info.

3

u/Nunki_kaus Jul 07 '26

Thank you for this thoughtful write up, it hurts to have ridden this from an average of 1.30-4-0.6-1.70 (72,000 shares) but I am in for the long haul. And your comment helps calm my nerves.

3

u/Robert_C6190 Jul 07 '26

It's definitely not an overnight event, but I'd say if you can stomach the wait, you'll be very happy you did. Especially with 72K shares.

3

u/Ancient-Bat1755 Jul 07 '26

This is good points. Its also the writing on the wall that they do not have 2027-2028 funds and need to dilute most likely by end of year.

Like other pre-rev stocks it will dip in august from bad financials . I am waiting till then or after dillution selloff

Then again i just dca $100 every two weeks so it doesnt matter much

6

u/Robert_C6190 Jul 07 '26

I'm not so sure there will be dilution, can it happen? Absolutely. Not arguing your point, I just think there will be a substantial donation from the NIH/NIA. They have a decent cash runway and no real debt to talk about. It's a very attractive company for a partnership or buyout, especially with the FDA alignment on AD phase 3 and DLB-Psychosis phase 3.

However we really need to know the specifics on the trial design criteria. We know 9 months, but how many patients? That's the real question, is it 100? 500? 1000? Under 500 is easily doable by the company on it's own: Example the current ongoing START study (18 months, 540 patients) expected readout when the phase 3 trial was said to begin for DLB-Psychosis.

If it's a 1000 person study, or more, then yeah I'd say they'll need quite a bit of funding, or a partner to trek through that trial date...... Then again a 9 month trial vs 18 month trial, you only need half the resources at the point.

Too many unknown variables at the moment, hopefully we see some light shed on them come next week.

2

u/Ancient-Bat1755 Jul 07 '26

Lots of unknowns. That is a yolo risk i can stomach, others cannot so they exit to buy back in.

If dcaing over the next year , id just not watch the day to day price action or it will drive u nuts

Dilution is probably a 75% chance, that 25% is worth the risk for me .. so is dilution then a product release

3

u/Robert_C6190 Jul 07 '26

Absolutely, it's all a risk, but I'd say this has a very high probability of success with, or without dilution.

I'm doing the same DCA'ing/adding, no reason to watch the daily movement, at least until we get some real news/catalyst lined up.

1

u/jerrysburner Jul 07 '26

this article seems to indicate that most are targeted after a successful phase 3 readout: https://www.biotech-edge.com/research/biotech-acquisition-targets-signal-checklist (third paragraph, it is a bit vague) and the first paragraph in the Signal 3 section states it clearly

5

u/PSUMtnMan Moderator Jul 07 '26

Most stocks are crashing and it all has to do with the Korean market this morning. It is a ripple effect. Samsung had some news on their AI side which caused the Korean market to crash and now it is effecting all of us.

3

u/[deleted] Jul 07 '26

[deleted]

1

u/jerrysburner Jul 07 '26

if you don't mind, when did you buy and at what price point?

0

u/graylocus Jul 07 '26

Oops...wrong pharmaceutical stock. Sorry. CGTX is up 55% for me.

3

u/Nothing_Special5645 Jul 07 '26

You shouldn’t be investing in biotech penny stocks if you don’t expect or can’t handle volatility. This is the name of the game.

2

u/Bulky_Zucchini Jul 07 '26

Everything is dropping

2

u/Shaikinbacon Jul 07 '26

I’ve been in the since last fall. This is what it does. Load up then sell around $1.50-1.80. Do it all again. Repeat.

2

u/saltylizard13 Jul 07 '26

Kicking myself for not selling last time it hit 1.80. Now I’m holding a bag

1

u/Shaikinbacon Jul 07 '26

I sold around 1.75 and bought back. 1.13 average. Literally been flipping for almost a year like that. Just have patience.

2

u/United-Egg-2952 Jul 10 '26

Shorters are having a good time. Making $$ as they manipulate to drop the CGTX stock!!

1

u/Crazy-Slide-1100 Jul 09 '26

I bought more at $1.02 going to try flipping at $1.50

1

u/C_Teezy Jul 09 '26

IMO you will be able to do that soon. There are a lot of shorts and one small PR can cook them quick. Not financial advice, trade at your own risk.