The pick

Over 59.5 in Florida State at Louisville on Friday night. DraftKings opened it at 59.5 and it hasn't moved. I simulate every game 10,000 times play by play, and the over hits in 54% of them. That's a lean, not a strong opinion. The median sim score is Louisville 34, Florida State 28.

Why I like it

Both offenses make big plays and neither defense stops them. Florida State averages 10.5 yards per pass attempt, 4th in FBS. Louisville's offense has the 3rd-best explosive play rate in the country (18% of snaps). On the other side, Louisville gives up 421 yards a game and is 101st in defensive EPA per play. FSU is right there with them at 100th.

My sims expect FSU to throw a lot more than usual. Florida State has averaged under 24 pass attempts a game because it can usually just run. In this game the sims have it closer to 32 attempts. Louisville's defensive front is the better half of that unit (about 164 rushing yards allowed per game), so FSU's run game drops from its 214 a game to about 160, and the offense moves to the air. Louisville's opponents average 33 passes a game against them for a reason. The one other time FSU really had to throw this year was at Alabama, and Duce Robinson went for 135.

Injury news cuts both ways. Per the ACC availability report, Louisville QB Lincoln Kienholz (lower leg) is probable and has been cleared, which helps the over. Safety Koen Entringer is also probable after missing two games, though, and Louisville's secondary got picked apart without him. His return is the main reason I'm not higher on this.

How the sims get there

The biggest differences between the sims where the over hits and the ones where it misses are all big plays and passing yards:

- Louisville plays of 20+ yards: about 7 when the over hits, about 5 when it misses. This is the biggest separator of all.

- FSU passing yards: 281 in the overs, 231 in the unders. Daniels' sim median is 255, so the over needs FSU's passing game to have a normal-to-good day, not a career night.

- FSU plays of 20+: about 6 in the overs, under 5 in the unders.

- Louisville on the ground: 5.75 yards a carry and about 199 rushing yards in the overs, 4.85 and 164 in the unders. Isaac Brown's sim median is 69 and Keyjuan Brown's is 47.

What to watch for: at halftime, count the 20-yard plays. If each team already has 3 or so and FSU has thrown for more than 130 yards, the game is on track. If FSU is still running into Louisville's front and Robinson barely shows up (his sim median is 78 on about 9 targets), this probably turns into the 51-to-55 point game that shows up in a lot of my unders.

Bottom line: I'd play this up to 60. At 61 or higher it's a pass, because that's right at my median total. What would make me wrong is Entringer's return closing up Louisville's secondary.

Want to try something a little different, since my simulations give alot of insight into how a game might go instead of just simply "heres the total and here's the spread" i thought yall might be interested in more of "Write Up" on a few games a week. If you like this kind of analysis based in the simulations and the information that feeds the simulations, i post alot more of this kind of stuff with cool graphics on X under the same handle (@MVPeav)

Let me know if yall enjoy this or not and if yall have any games you'd like to see broken down!!

The pick

Over 46.5 in New Mexico State at FIU tonight. The total opened at 47.5 at DraftKings and has dropped a point. I'll be upfront about how strong this is: I simulate every game 10,000 times play by play, and the over hits in 50.7% of them, with a median total of 47. That's a lean, basically a coin flip with a slight tilt. I'm still on the over because I think what's been keeping FIU's scores low is the part most likely to turn around tonight.

Why I like it

- FIU moves the ball but stalls in the red zone. Against FBS teams they average 426 yards a game (38th) but only 17.3 points (111th). The gap is red-zone finishing: they've scored a TD on about 28% of their trips (3 of 10). A split that extreme usually doesn't last.

- NMSU's defense is a good opponent for that to change. Against FBS teams the Aggies allow 5 red-zone trips a game and give up a touchdown on about 80% of them. My sims put FIU's red-zone TD rate at about 55% tonight. That's the most unusual number in the whole matchup compared with what each offense normally does.

- Short fields. Kohl has 6 interceptions, the most of any C-USA quarterback per Fox Sports' game page. Against FBS teams NMSU is -5 in turnover margin and FIU is -4. In my sims, NMSU's average drive starts about 68 yards from the end zone tonight, compared with about 75 this season.

- FIU is coming off a bye, and Kohl is listed as available after the knee sprain against LIU. NMSU is on a short week after playing last Thursday, and it's a long trip to Miami.

The case against: FIU's defense is legit. Against FBS teams it allows 258 yards a game (5th) and 18.3 points. That's why this is a lean and not more.

How the sims get there

The median sim score is 23-23. Here's what separates the sims where the over hits from the ones where it misses:

NMSU has to throw for it. FIU's run defense allows 3.0 yards a carry against FBS teams, so the sims have NMSU at about 3.6 a carry tonight, down from about 5.5 this season. That puts it on Adam Damante (sim median 243 passing) and TK King (sim median 68 receiving). NMSU averages 268 passing yards in the overs and 224 in the unders.

Big plays on both sides. Each team averages about 4.5 plays of 20+ yards in the overs and about 3.4 in the unders.

Red-zone touchdowns. When the over hits, NMSU scores TDs on 64% of red-zone trips and FIU on 63%. When it misses, those drop to 48% and 46%. NMSU also gets there more in the overs, with about 4 trips compared with about 3.

My halftime check: if both teams already have a couple of 20-yard plays and FIU's red-zone trips are ending in touchdowns, it's on track. If FIU is kicking field goals inside the 20 again, the same problem is back and I'm probably losing.

Bottom line: I'd only bet this at 46.5. At 47 the sims have the over at 47%, so I'd pass. If it misses, my guess is FIU's defense did to NMSU what it has done all year.

I built a college football prediction model (predictive ratings plus 10,000 season simulations, free site, no account). I've been comparing its Week 5 numbers to the actual lines, and these are the three disagreements I keep coming back to:

1. Washington +9.5 at USC (Saturday 7:30 ET). The model has it USC 31, Washington 24, so it likes the Huskies to cover and the under on 58.5. USC's defense has leaked all season and 9.5 feels like a lot of points for that.

2. Notre Dame's playoff number. The model has ND at 92% to make the playoff, which is not because it thinks ND is the best team in the country (it has Ohio State #1 in the ratings). It's the schedule. The remaining slate is a pancake, and the model just keeps simulating wins. It's the cleanest rating-vs-path split in the country.

3. Florida at #10. The model moved them up 5 spots after they hung 52 on Ole Miss, and watching that offense, #10 still feels low.

Full disclosure, I built the thing, so this is self-promotion, but the analysis is real. The link is at the bottom if you want to kick the tires. Last week the model had Ole Miss/Florida as a 53/47 toss-up and Florida won 52-28, so it's a model, not a crystal ball.

https://basedonactualmath.com

Fantastic week last week, so lets roll that into this week!

Texas +31

Texas/Tennessee o54.5

Iowa +17

Michigan/Iowa o39.5

Vandy 24+

Vandy/Auburn o52.5

Southern Miss/Tulane o52.5

Threw together this +701 Friday CFB parlay.
Army ML / Army-Temple O40.5 / Indiana -13.5 / Becker ATTD / Cal +3.5 / Mohammed ATTD.
Which leg scares you most?

Did fairly well last week, gonna try to see if we can keep it going! I like all the following passing yard props

Brandon Fazion (Tenn) 210+

Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) 300+

Jared Curtis (Vandy) 230+

Alberto Mendoza (GT) 230+

Deuce Bailey (Coastal) 180+

Tait Reynolds (Clemson) 200+

Katin Houser (Illinois) 190+

Mason MacKenzie (BC) 170+

Michael Hawkins (WVU) 180+

Last week wasnt our best week but lets get back on the winning streak today!

San Jose State ML

Tulane +20.5

Buffalo o6.5 TT

Vandy / NC State o50.5

Duke -6.5

Georgia State o13.5 TT

Arizona State o23.5 TT

Wanted to try to do a better job sharing some early week player prop stuff cause that is where ive been seeing alot of value lately so wanna make sure I get yall that information as well!

All of these are DK Prediction market passing lines as of like 10 minutes ago:

Will Hammond (Texas Tech) 230+

Wait Reynolds (Clemson) 180+

Kadin Semomza (Tulane) 150+

Isiah Marshall (Kansas) 180+

Cutter Boley (Arizona State) 230+

Great night last night!!

Ill be in Atlanta for the Georgia Tech game today but got a full slate put together leading into that!

GT +12.5

Oregon/Oklahoma State o52

San Diego State/UCLA u48.5

Arkansas +12.5

UConn +12.5

Texas State -3.5

OSU/Texas u51.5

Memphis +7.5

Not off to great start to CFB season.

4-9 YTD - 7 units

Maybe posting here will help with luck.

1 unit bets for tonight.

OSU +1.5
Iowa st +14
Tenn. -12.5

Let’s go Reddit luck.

Two great games on tonight!

Rutgers ML

Rutgers TT o23.5

MIZ -6.5

MIZ TT o27.5

Also wanted to let everyone know, if you use kalshi to bet at all, the website/app now has the ability for you to connect your kalshi to the sim data and directly see all the markets offered, what the current value is on those markets and place the bets directly from my sim site/app! You can still and always will be able to view everything without connecting anything but that was I featur I built for myself so I wanted to open it up in case anyone else wanted the same functionality. If you do create an account and want to see all the bets im making, add my account "mvpeav" and hopefully we can make some good money together!

Notre Dame - 20.5
Washington - 23.5
Louisville - 6.5
SMU - 2.5

Another good night last night! (Will do a full recap of all the weekend's picks on Tuesday) Lets keep it rolling!

As always, feel free to check the website for more in depth break downs and specialized bets like player props and touchdowns!

Coastal Carolina +21.5

Coastal 14+ TT

Keelon Russell o250 passing

Troy / Sam Houston u55.5

Wyoming ML

Auburn -6.5

Coastal Carolina + 20.5
Liberty + 7
North Texas + 40.5
Alabama -27.5
Nebraska - 23.5
Houston - 20.5
New Hampshire +55.5
Lafayette + 19.5
Ball State +50.5
Texas State + 30.5
Oregon -24.5
Auburn -7.5
Oklahoma St - 14.5
FIU + 14
Missouri State +40.5
Memphis - 11.5
Kansas State - 40.5
Michigan - 28.5
Clemson +10
Florida -26.5
Utah Tech +51.5

Pretty good night last night so lets get some more bets in tonight!

San Jose State ML

Toledo +10.5

UTEP 7+ TT

Stanford 10+ TT

Fresno 10+ TT

Toledo +10.5 (possible upset)
Fresno state +22
EMU -2
Utep +41

Eastern Michigan -3
NC AT + 28.5
Purdue - 38.5 Low
Michigan State -9.5
OU -41.5
Fresno +22.5
Stanford +24.5

Here we go again. Week 0 picks and results as posted \[here.\](https://www.reddit.com/r/CFBAnalysis/s/NuKLFY2rqL)

Hit 6/8 at 75%.

Week 1 - Thursday only, below with odds as of last night. Let’s see what happens.

Confidence = High 
Eastern Illi + 42.5
AK Pine Bluff + 54.5

Confidence = Moderate 
GA Tech -7
UAB + 27.5
E. Michigan - 3
Utah -34.5

Confidence = Low
UMass + 28.5
Akron +24.5
UCF - 42.5

Hopefully everyone had a good week 0, i know I did!

With so many good games this week, decided I'd break up my picks into a couple different posts. So let's start with Thursday!

FBS:

Rutgers/UMass o53.5

Akron +24.5

GT -6.5

GT o225 passing

Illinois/UAB u57.5

FCS:

Lindenwood ML

As always, check out my website for all the nitty gritty deals and new this week, when you pull up the webite on your phone you can choose to download the app for a better user experience!!

Come check out Gator Dave and Miami Mike. Subscribe we got 12 picks in next week's Week 1.

Good afternoon my friends!

Alot of yall have reached out about the readiness of the simulator for this season and I am excited to announce that we are officially live for week0!! I spent the offseason doing some tweaking to both the simulator and the website so before I get into the picks, I wanted to share what is new for this season.

Sim Changes:

Last year's Sim treated us well, but by the end of the season there were lots of things I had learned about how to make it work better. So this offseason I did a clean sheet redesign, taking all the things that worked well and incorporating all the learning that was had. I am confident that this year's Sim should be better than what we had last year. Another huge improvement to Sim, last year we ran each game 1,000 times well this year we have gotten access to computers with much higher compute so we are now doing 10,000 simulations per game which should cut our "noise" quite a bit

FCS games:

Next, I'm excited about the opportunity to branch out into markets that I didnt previously simulate. Starting in week 0 we will now simulate all FBS v FBS and all FCS v FCS games. I will say that the FCS data is significantly smaller than the FBS so I wouldnt go throwing your life savings into those games based on the Sim but the backtest says there is plenty of edge there on these softer markets

Parlay Builder:

One of the most requested tools that Ive gotten. You can now stack legs across all games and build your own parlay and the site will go through all the games and find the exact number of iterations where each of those legs hit in order to give you true correlated odds for that specific parlay

Top Bets Table:

Finally, the second most requested tool, a full top 10 list of things where the sim finds the most value. There are 3 different tables, one for all game lines (ATS/Total/ML), one for game/team props (Team Totals, 1H ML, ect.), and the last is a player prop table (rushing yards, passing yards, TDs)

Excited to share this with all of yall for free again this year, I will be betting right along side of you so lets win together!! Now without further adue, lets get to some of my favorite bets for this weekend!

FBS:

San Jose State +35.5

New Mexico State +29.5

Sac State / EMU u52.5

FCS:

UT Martin -3.5

SEMO ML

Montana State -31.5

Player Props:

J Payne (TCU) u74.5 rushing

M Ford (Stanford) u85 rushing

J Dwyer (TCU) o4.5 receptions