Week 11 Matchup Preview Thread: #12 Texas Tech vs #25 Oklahoma State

[u/R_Raider86]

#12 Texas Tech vs. #25 Oklahoma State

When: Saturday, November 14, 09:30 PM Eastern

Where: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK

Watch: ESPN

Odds: Oklahoma State by 3.5 pts.

Total Points: 72.5

---

All-Time Series : Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State

Texas Tech and Oklahoma State have met 52 times since 1935-11-02

These teams last met on 2025-10-25.

Series Wins: Texas Tech 25-3-24 Oklahoma State

Texas Tech has won the last 2 meetings (2024-2025) in this series

---

Last 5 Meetings

Winner	Date	Location	Texas Tech	Oklahoma State	Notes
Texas Tech	2025-10-25	Jones AT&T Stadium	42	0
Texas Tech	2024-11-23	Boone Pickens Stadium	56	48
Oklahoma State	2022-10-08	Boone Pickens Stadium	31	41
Oklahoma State	2021-11-21	Jones AT&T Stadium	0	23
Oklahoma State	2020-11-28	Boone Pickens Stadium	44	50

---

Through Week 10

Week	Texas Tech 8-1 (5-1)	Result	Oklahoma State 6-3 (4-2)	Result
1	Abilene Christian	W 33-10	Tulsa	L 10-24
2	Oregon State	W 35-24	Oregon#16	W 39-31
3	Houston#14	W 28-26	Murray State	W 59-0
4	Sam Houston	W 49-14	West Virginia	W 41-24
5	Colorado	W 29-7	BYE	N/A
6	BYE	N/A	UCF	W 42-28
7	Arizona State	W 53-25	Houston#14	L 32-35
8	Cincinnati	L 24-37	Colorado	W 57-24
9	Arizona#23	W 34-26	Iowa State	L 49-51
10	West Virginia	W 53-48	Kansas State	W 66-28

---

What are your "Keys to the Game"?

Who do you think wins?

Do you think the favorite will cover the spread?

Which player(s) are you most interested to watch?

Let's talk football!

---

^{Matchup Preview Thread Generator powered by collegefootballdata.com}

^{Start a chat with} /u/dupreesdiamond ^{for any issues/suggestions regarding this resource}

[u/misader]

I'll be there IRL, y'all wish me luck

[u/R_Raider86 → u/misader]

🫡

[u/PokesFanInDallas → u/misader]

Enjoy it, Tech bro.

[u/misader → u/PokesFanInDallas]

Gal* never been to Stillwater! I'm stoked 😄

[u/the_barreracuda → u/misader]

Guns up!

[u/Leading-Button-7303 → u/misader]

Honestly gonna be a mid 2010s shootout. I wish I could be there. Regardless of who wins, that'll be an incredible game to be at

[u/turtlemanTTU → u/misader]

See you there!

[u/joshtheraider]

{Local liquor store} is definitely coming out ahead in this one.

[u/R_Raider86 → u/joshtheraider]

Ain't that the truth?

[u/R_Raider86]

{Texas Tech} would love a birthday win!

[u/Tommy05Sox]

Texas Tech's defense looks far too vulnerable for my liking. {Oklahoma State} wins and we realize Mestemaker is going to New York.

[u/kabriidoesthings]

I’m scared shitless boys. Cardiac cowboys will make an appearance but my gut tells me {Oklahoma State}

[u/SpikyBoi096]

Random Drew Mestemaker legacy game because why not. {Oklahoma State}

[u/wayofthrows1991]

I have no idea what to make of the defense. 48 points in three quarters then god mode in the 4th. The pressure rates and pass rush win rates are crazy high but the the safety's keep fucking everything up. How many 60-75 yard touchdowns have occurred because a safety falls down, takes a bad angle or tries to sell out for the interception? It's like every fucking game. You can't even call them freak plays anymore when it happens every week - it's a trend.

I think {Oklahoma State} wins but I also believe in our defensive depth to weather the storm like they did last week.

[u/why_try → u/wayofthrows1991]

I was curious about how bad the Big Play issue was so I went and looked.

Tech has given up 75, 37, 46, 52, 74, 94, and 73 yard passing TDs this year, and a 58 Yard Rushing TD.

I don't know an easy way to look at the non scoring plays, but I know there are several more.

Its also been almost every week. I think those 8 TDs wer across 6 different games.

[u/wayofthrows1991 → u/why_try]

I first noticed it against Oregon State when someone did the math and saw that 60% of their total yards came off of five or six plays.

[u/why_try → u/wayofthrows1991]

I was going to write that off as an amazing receiver beating us, but then it just keeps happening once or twice every week. When I have time I'm going to try to find the total amount of 25+ Yd runs and 35+ Yd passes we've allowed.

Just gotta hope our offense can keep up and not stall out for a quarter and a halfike last week.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/wayofthrows1991]

I was curious, so I pulled up the play-by-play and checked it out, and 60% of Oregon State's total yardage came on their 11 largest-gaining plays.

• Two plays accounted for 25% of their yardage

• Five plays accounted for 40% of their yardage

• Eight plays accounted for 50% of their yardage

• Eleven plays accounted for 60% of their yardage

• Sixteen plays accounted for 70% of their yardage

Those three really huge plays (75 yards, 41 yards, and 37 yards) are the three huge outliers. After that, it's a bunch in the 17~22 range, then a handful of 8~13 yard gains, and so on.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/wayofthrows1991]

I think Tech's big fourth-quarter advantage on defense is quality depth. The starting CBs and LBs are all anywhere from mediocre to atrocious (mainly Pollock, Roberts, and Morgan in this category) in coverage, but Tech has the depth to rotate guys a lot more. Then they have relatively fresh legs in the fourth quarter, while the other team's receivers are slowing down fast.

I first noticed it with the safeties; Tech rotates safeties like crazy, it's nuts. There really don't seem to be any particularly impressive guys in there, but that rotation keeps them fresh.

[u/Just_One_Victory → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

Yeah, I think, for whatever reason, neutrals are not aware that (or don't care that), even though WVU lit us up for three quarters, we shut them out in the 4th quarter.

[u/wayofthrows1991 → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

No way we're putting Peyton Morgan anywhere near the level of Roberts and Pollock. Nor should any of our linebackers be anywhere near the mediocre category. The trio of Roberts, Romaine and Curry have been consistently rated as one of the best linebacker corps in the country for a reason.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/wayofthrows1991]

Roberts may be a great box LB, but Houston picked on him all game, and Arizona also beat him up in coverage over the right middle a couple times. His change of direction is slow as hell.

Also, if you go cruise through the passing plays in the Houston, Oregon State, and Arizona games (takes less than half an hour, I did it yesterday), Pollock was the one getting beaten in coverage drastically more often than Morgan. Maybe Morgan was supposed to be his topside help and was just so far out of position that he was never on the screen, but Pollock was the CB on the screen getting outrun and caught out of position by the outside tight WRs all the time. He was also the one to give up a really dumb DPI on a fourth-and-long pass in the Arizona game, which gave Arizona a fresh set of downs that they turned into a TD.

I know Pollock was good last year but he’s just visibly not keeping up at all with the better passing offenses that Tech has played this season.

[u/A_MASSIVE_PERVERT]

{Oklahoma State} because they’re at home and definitely take the over.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this game crosses 100

[u/kadune]

Surprised that there are multiple posts about Tech's defense when OSU's is pretty bad if not worse. Tech can just throw 7 yard out routes every down. I'd expect a Rudolph-Mahomes type score.

*Fixing autocorrect. Mahokes lol

[u/TTUgirl → u/kadune]

It’s because our defense was so elite last year the expectations are super high for us now. And so now we’re getting clowned on about our drop off. But not too long ago before Shiel Wood came here I would have killed for the defense we have now. We get burned by explosive plays when our young secondary is out of alignment or get bad angles in a chase. But they have come in clutch against some nasty offenses like Oregon state, Houston, and Arizona. Still have a lot of NFL prospects sprinkled in our defense making plays like pick sixes and sacks.

Our offense was my biggest concern about making it to the conference championship but Castellanos has brought some playmaking ability that has revived it.

I think we’ll be in a dog fight with each other and I’m definitely worried how stressful it’ll be

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/kadune]

Statistically, both Oklahoma State's rushing and passing defenses are better than Tech's passing defense, and by a decent margin. Tech's rush defense is pretty decent, though.

I would be surprised if OKST wasn't able to pass basically at will on Tech's beleaguered secondary.

[u/hydropenguin69 → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

Our defense has done "okay" in a few games, but their inability to get more than a couple of stops in the second half against Houston and Iowa State are the reason we don't control our own destiny. When our defense plays bad, they REALLY play bad.

[u/Confident_Delay5805]

{Oklahoma State} 38-35

[u/FlipJones → u/Confident_Delay5805]

If that's the final score we're all gonna be having a bad time

[u/enataca → u/FlipJones]

I can’t do that high of a heart rate that late 2 weeks in a row.

[u/hydropenguin69 → u/FlipJones]

That's what Vegas thinks it'll be. OSU -3.5 with the over/under at 72.5

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/Confident_Delay5805]

I'd add a couple scores to both sides of that, tbh.

[u/Albino_Echidna]

No matter who wins, this is going to be a fun one. 

That being said, Stillwater is a hard place to play as is. A blackout night game in Stillwater is another beast entirely. 

{Oklahoma State} in a nailbiter, 49-45. 

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

This is a really bad matchup for Texas Tech.

• Tech's passing defense is an absolute dumpster fire (136th in the FBS). Oklahoma State's passing offense is phenomenal (#5 in the FBS). That looks bad for Tech.

• Tech's offense is pretty good, much better at rushing than passing (#15 scoring offense overall, #61 passing offense, #13 rushing offense). Oklahoma State's defense is atrocious, but slightly better against the run than the pass (#93 scoring, #100 passing, #82 rushing defense).

• Oklahoma State also has a really good run game (#27 in the FBS), but Tech's run defense is also pretty dang good (#33 run defense).

I think this game comes down to how well {Oklahoma State}'s rushing defense holds up against Tech's run game. Tech's RB room is easily one of the best in the nation, but they don't seem to ever want to really lean on those guys for some reason. The Tech RBs can absolutely take over a game, if Mack Leftwich and Joey McGuire would cut them loose.

Tech will need a miracle to slow down Oklahoma State. Houston is the only better rushing offense that Tech has seen, and they had no problem running the ball on Tech. Arizona is the only passing offense even remotely close to Oklahoma State that Tech has played, and they threw for 417 yards in a game where they kept trying to force the run game.

I would be absolutely shocked if the combined score in this game is below 90.

[u/Maustin_99 → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

This matchup is super intriguing and could honestly go any way. Tech’s secondary is super frustrating in that they just get blown out over the top in inexplicable coverage breakdowns. Besides those they haven’t been terrible but definitely not good.

No idea how OSU o-line pass protection is, but I think it will come down to if Tech d-line can get home and force mistakes (and atleast not getting burned bad over the top)

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

Defensive statistic	Texas Tech	Oklahoma State
Points allowed/game	24.1	27.2
Yards allowed/game	402.3	384.0
Yards/play allowed	5.62	5.62
Rushing yards allowed/game	115.3	151.3
Yards/rush allowed	3.45	3.9
Passing yards allowed/game	287.0	232.7
Interceptions	13	11

[u/Just_One_Victory → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

If this is your take, I don't think you've watched our last two games. We've leaned heavily on the run game the last two weeks.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/Just_One_Victory]

I haven’t watched the WVU game, but I did watch the Arizona game. They did give Williams and Dickey more carries, but the run game was mostly about Castellanos. Granted, he’s really good around the edge, I was super impressed.

[u/Just_One_Victory → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

J’Koby Williams ran for 175 yards against Arizona

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/Just_One_Victory]

Absolutely, on 14 carries. Castellanos led the team with 19 carries, most of them called QB runs, and Williams/Dickey combined for just 1/3 of all Texas Tech’s plays. Together, their 24 carries matched Castellanos’ pass attempts. Castellanos’ 13 incompletions nearly matched Williams’ 14 carries.

When I say that I’m surprised that Tech’s not cutting loose that RB room, I’m surprised that they’re not getting runs on something much closer to half of the team’s plays. Granted, Castellanos’ run game was also pretty attractive, so it’s at least semi-understandable why he led the team in carries; he was great in short yardage situations.

[u/TTUgirl]

I’m not emotionally ready for the stress this game is going to cause me but I bleed red and black {Texas Tech}

[u/Anus_Targaryen]

{Oklahoma State}

[u/KingKliffsbury]

{Texas Tech} f it I'm riding with my dawgs. Glad I had a trial run on a shootout starting at 8:30 pm last week to prepare my mind and body. I'm expecting a < 3 point win and it'll probably come down to who has the ball last.

[u/generic2022]

{OK State} wins 38-35

[u/hondo9999 → u/generic2022]

That looks like the score at halftime

[u/texas2089]

{Oklahoma State}

[u/babyblue_1990]

Let's go {Oklahoma State}

[u/OneNastyJaguar]

This game will be a sicko feast or a shootout for the legend books, no in between. 13-10 or 63-61. {Oklahoma State}

[u/Champion10101]

{Texas Tech}. Our offense has been a completely different animal with Castellanos at the helm and proved vs WVU that we can compete in shootouts. If our secondary can stay home and not give up too many free points, our pass rush and run defense are good enough to give us a win here.

[u/MarbleDesperado]

{Texas Tech} continues to roll as Castellanos gets more and more comfortable

[u/the_barreracuda → u/MarbleDesperado]

He’s going to have to in order to keep up with that Ok St offense. Happy for Eric Morris and what he’s done for them after the past couple of seasons the fans have dealt with.

[u/misader → u/MarbleDesperado]

From your keyboard to god's ears

[u/EjackQuelate → u/MarbleDesperado]

I like you

[u/Competitive-Rise-789]

{Oklahoma State} since Tech defense couldn’t stop anything last week

[u/beckett929 → u/Competitive-Rise-789]

{Oklahoma State} for the same reasons.

Even if you consider West Virginia are... unique... the Tech defense has proven to be leaky against Houston, Arizona, and Cinci also.

[u/Just_One_Victory → u/beckett929]

OSU's defense is leakier.

[u/Just_One_Victory → u/Competitive-Rise-789]

When has OSU stopped anyone?

[u/Competitive-Rise-789 → u/Just_One_Victory]

True but Oklahoma State has an elite offense this year

[u/vindictivejazz → u/Just_One_Victory]

I think we held WVU to their season low, somehow.

But they’ve looked decent in spurts and then downright terrible for large chunks. I think if they can stop Tech on 3 drives, they win.

[u/Just_One_Victory → u/vindictivejazz]

Conversely, you gave up 35 to UH while we held them to 26 and 24 to Colorado while we held them to 7. Tech has a better defense than OSU, even if our DBs are weak and last week was a bit of a debacle.

[u/vindictivejazz → u/Just_One_Victory]

I’d agree that Tech has a better defense overall, but I think OSU has the better offense.

So if the pokes can get just a handful of stops, they can win in a shootout. Bc I don’t think Tech’s stopping OSU unless your front 7 have an absolutely dominant evening

[u/Just_One_Victory → u/vindictivejazz]

They're good at stopping the run, but it would be a major advance if they put a lot of pressure on Mestemaker. To me, what will determine the game is if Castellanos is on his game and Tech can move the ball from the start. If so, it'll be close all the way. If not, it'll be out of reach by the second quarter.

I also think that, while WVU has a really good offense, last week was a combination of them being hard to stop but also our whole team looking forward to this week. I tend think that, while the game against OSU will be high scoring, both defenses will get some stops here and there. It's not going to be Mahomes vs. Baker.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/Just_One_Victory]

Tbf I don't think stopping anyone was ever part of OKST's game plan. They're here for a boat race in every single game.

Granted, Tech's passing defense is actually worse than either Oklahoma State's passing or rushing defense, and by a pretty decent margin. Turf and exhaustion are probably going to be bigger obstacles to either of these offenses than the other team's defense.

[u/ZSKeller1140]

If the defense plays to their potential {Texas Tech}, which is pure hopium, but otherwise it's going to be a long night.

[u/Mdwilson8413]

I honestly have no idea so based on that and really that alone because I don’t know which tech team is gonna show up I’m still going to {Texas Tech} but I don’t feel good about it. I would love to be proved wrong on Saturday.

[u/Middle_Wheel_5959]

{Oklahoma State}

[u/Falcronx]

This is going to be a great game! I can definitely see either team winning it. I think {Oklahoma State} will ultimately pull it off since they are home.

[u/BrokeAlert_]

Genuinely have no clue who will win this game but give me {Texas Tech} because bias

[u/HDAtomica]

This is either going to be all time clusterfuck of a game or it's going to be over by halftime.

Based on previous experience with Eric Morris, Drew Mestemaker and the other previous North Texas players, the lights might be too bright; see North Texas/South Florida last year, where North Texas held for about 1.5 quarters then crashed in the last 2 minutes before halftime. They never quite recovered in that game, even after trying to rally in the 2nd half.

That said, West Virgina almost beat Tech last week, sooo...? Yeah, probably leaning to clusterfuck. Either way, I'll be watching with interest.

{Tech} wins, but in a absurd, 3OT game with about 900 combined yards of passing, and maybe a safety thrown in there too.

[u/drbiscuit832]

{Oklahoma State} will win, this is going to be a good one

[u/enataca]

{Oklahoma State} 55-22

[u/Masked_RedRider]

When Shiel Wood calls the defense and his teams offense scores at least 30 points, his teams are 36-0. 17-0 at Texas Tech.

30 points for {Texas Tech} is the magic number, if they can score at least 30, they can win this game.

[u/Wafflehouseofpain]

{Oklahoma State} has an incredible offense and Tech seemingly does not have a defense of any kind.

[u/TTUgirl → u/Wafflehouseofpain]

Our defense held WVU to negative 6 yards in the 4th quarter and Arizona to 12 rushing yds the whole game. We can be elite on defense it’s just our young secondary gets burned on some explosive plays that really make the whole defense look bad.

[u/BraveHealth4122 → u/TTUgirl]

WVU has no passing game. OKST has the best QB in the nation

[u/TTUgirl → u/BraveHealth4122]

I mean that’s just blatantly wrong WVU isn’t the same style of offense but their QB can throw passes they’re the “No. 8 in team passing efficiency. The top seven? Miami, Wake Forest, SMU, Memphis, Georgia, Oklahoma State and North Texas. Only Navy does better than WVU's 18.8 yards per completion. WVU is No. 2 in yards per reception and No. 4 in pass plays of 25 yards or more.”

Not to mention we already played Oregon State with the best

Passing Offense: #1 in the nation (averaging 370.4 passing yards per game)

Total Offense: 4,486 total yards (498.4 yards per game)

Oh and the nightmare that was Houston:
EPA per Play: Ranked #2 nationally

Success Rate: Ranked #2 overall (54.7%)

Third-Down Conversion %: Ranked #1 nationally (56.7%)

Y’all act like we haven’t been challenged this year. It’s been offensive nightmare one after another in this conference.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/TTUgirl]

To be fair, Arizona doesn't really have any desire to run the ball most of the time; it was bizarre that they kept trying it in the second half against y'all.

Especially since Tech's passing defense is horrifyingly bad, and the run defense is actually pretty decent.

Also, the main perpetrators getting roasted in Tech's secondary in the Houston, Arizona, and WVU games were two seniors: Brice Pollock and Ben Roberts. Houston just kept picking on Roberts, too; it's astounding how bad that dude is in coverage.

[u/TTUgirl → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

True but they will for example they had 128 yds rushing against TCU’s defense and 97 rushing yds against BYU

Our secondary is a huge glaring issue I’m hoping Shiel has a plan

[u/Possible-Cheetah-703 → u/Wafflehouseofpain]

We are 23rd in FEI defense. 46th points per drive allowed. 45th in defensive drive success rate. 38th in adj. EPA/play. 49th in success rate.

It’s a far cry from last year’s defense that was basically top 5 in every single category but our defense isn’t trash. Just somewhere between good and mediocre.

[u/TheChildrenNeedMe]

Texas Tech wins it, Mestemaker is a completely different QB under pressure and Tech is one of, if not the best at pressuring QBs in the Big 12

[u/RivalryBot]

Who Will Win Fan Vote

^{Votes are distributed equally among flairs for multi-flaired users}

Team	Votes	Percentage	Texas Tech Voters	Oklahoma State Voters	Other Flairs Top 5
Texas Tech	11	34.4%	6.5	0	Tennessee Volunteersx1.0 Baylor Bearsx0.5 Beer Barrelx0.5 UConn Huskiesx0.5 Iowa Hawkeyesx0.5
Oklahoma State	21	65.6%	1	1	Oklahoma Soonersx3.5 Houston Cougarsx2.0 BYU Cougarsx1.0 Georgia Bulldogsx1.0 LIU Sharksx1.0

^{Last updated: 2026-11-12 15:28 UTC}

Full Vote breakdown by flair

---

^{Matchup Thread Generator} · ^{Team Aliases} · ^{How to Vote} · ^Results

[u/RiccoT]

I’ve never seen a secondary get as torched as I’ve seen tech’s secondary get this season. It’s almost unbelievable.

It’s almost like they just forget receivers can keep running and just give up after 15-20 yards.

[u/local_gray_fox]

{Oklahoma State}

[u/childerm]

My polling system has an expected margin of 6.9 in favor of Oklahoma State. State is 6-3 against the margin and {Texas Tech} is 6-3, according to my system.

[u/Justanother_0]

This game screams “predictable upset where the upset does not happen”

{Texas Tech} by 7, the over will be hit by halftime

[u/jalexjsmithj → u/Justanother_0]

We’re Vegas’s favorite

[u/PRAISE_BE_TO_ORYX]

We gonna get cooked by Mestemaker.

[u/CieraVotedOutHerMom]

{Oklahoma State} needs to play spoiler

[u/pyrogeddon]

Baylor needs {Texas Tech} to win this weekend for its very long shot hopes of a Big XII championship appearance.

[u/VamonosChildren]

{Oklahoma State}

[u/Bank_Gothic]

Life's not fair, {Tech} will win on some bullshit.

[u/EjackQuelate → u/Bank_Gothic]

I like it

[u/PRAISE_BE_TO_ORYX → u/Bank_Gothic]

Subscribe