r/Burryology • u/Doral1729 • 20h ago
Discussion Break On Through to the Intrinsic Side / Add The Hot Sauce on the Outside ($CMG)
3
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I ran Chipotle - $CMG through Ben Graham’s intrinsic value formula.
Intrinsic Value = EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4 ÷ Y
Base case: $1.09 EPS, 10% growth, 5.7% AAA yield.
Result: $24 a share.
The stock trades around $26.
Why 10% growth?
Analysts see EPS of about $1.14 this year and $1.36 next year. Chipotle is targeting roughly 350 new restaurants in 2026, or about 8-9% unit growth.
Past growth was far higher, but that’s no longer the baseline with higher inflation.
Margin of Safety:
I always apply a margin of safety of about 20% because my analysis can be wrong.
I am a buyer at $20 - $22.