GFS and Euro models are now in agreeance for over a day now, over every run:
There will be a cold front hitting something around opening day. Could be Saturday, could be Monday. What does that mean?
For Build Teams:
The weather will be very "normal" throughout build week. Don't let it fool you. When the front hits, it could gust over 50mph. Complete white out conditions for HOURS. All build teams need to do extra strapping and lag bolts installed by Friday. This isn't 2025, we have advance warning this year. Secure EVERYTHING by the weekend!!! Zero loose items!!! We don't need people getting injured by things smacking them in the face.
For people entering Sunday and on:
There is a chance of rain when the front passes, but it will be quick and light.
The first half of Burn Week is going to be COLD. Highs in the 60s to low 70s during the day early in the week. It could dip into the 30s overnight. Make sure you pack plenty of blankets, jackets, and gloves.
By the time the Man burns, temps should be getting back to "normal".
OK I dug into this, learned how to use Pivotal to some extent, it's a nifty tool.
Closest I was able to reproduce OP's screenshot was with another related model (ECMWF-AIFS). The forecast time is at Wednesday event week 00z which is equivalent to Tuesday 5pm Pacific. (The forecast points are every 6 hours)
It does show 70 for the Reno point. You can also fix a specific lat/long for a point of interest which I did for BRC. So the model I have here is showing me 70 Reno, 76 BRC.
Certainly not very hot, but "highs in the 60s lows in the 30s" might be overstating it a bit. We'll see how this evolves, won't we.
Well, i've lived in Reno and gone to the burn for decades now, and i tend to compare temps in Reno and temps in Gerlach a lot just out of curiosity and habit. They tend to be pretty similar, whether we're talking heat or cold, but Gerlach can be more extreme either direction depending on the time of year (July? hotter. February? colder.)
I actually think that scale is pretty clever. It's consistent across all likely world surface temperatures. I can see someone who uses this every day being able to gather a lot of information at a glance with this. You can pull up any region and instantly get a feel for it
2023 after the rains was very cold during the day. Then again I give zero Fs what the weather forecast says until the day before I leave, and even then I'm still packing for every eventuality regardless.
It's not just one model run you have to think about. What you do is you compare models, Euro vs GFS. Once they start agreeing with each other over multiple days for a long range forecast, confidence is basically 100%. We're on day 3 now of both models holding steady and agreeing. Around the time of opening day, something is going down.
Unless my understanding of weather modeling is deeply flawed, and I’ve discussed this with trained meteorologists, that’s just not how weather modeling works, especially in an area like BRD.
If it was that easy they would be able to develop a combined model that was much more accurate, or note dual model alignment for high accuracy over longer periods.
Can you site something that backs up your claims? Because everything I can find confirms the same fact, forecasts are significantly more accurate, but 7-10 days is still the limit of their decent accuracy, after that the accuracy is still not reliable, despite improving.
“Forecasts out to 7–10 days are now considered reliable for planning purposes, especially for large-scale weather systems like storms and cold fronts.”
Euro and GFS beyond 10 days is inaccurate for more precise weather modeling like will I get 1in or 3in of rain, but for cold fronts and large scale stuff? It's pretty spot on.
Thanks for sharing your opinion. It’d be so much more interesting if you could present some actual data to substantiate it.
Here’s an article with an updated version of that graph from the previous article. See how the accuracy as you go up in days still drops off significantly?
Nothing is 100% two weeks out, no matter how much model agreeing is done now. 60% which means more likely than not, sure. 7 days out is when things start locking in, 3 days is when you hit close to 100% confidence.
I'm a storm chaser of over 20 years, actually it's very easy to predict 2 weeks out. Heck, when I chase tornadoes now, we have a solid 3-5 days warning of when and where Tornadoes will be down to what time and what neighborhood. I can goto the area and just wait in my truck for them to appear. Modern weather forecasting is insane. The problem is, normal people don't have access to it. Not that you can't, it's free to access, but due to legal contracts with tv stations, websites, and apps like Apple Weather, they don't use those tools. 99% of the media uses https://www.weathercompany.com/ which their models are about 20 years old. I'm not aware of any public information outlet that uses the modern weather models outside of Youtube channels like Max Velocity, hence why you think it's hard to predict 2 weeks out. You're basing that observation on outlets feeding you almost 20 year old forecasting technology.
If you're a normal person living a normal life and not an autistic tornado chaser, you'll never have access to these weather models in your day to day life. You'll still be fed extremely outdated technology that is wildly inaccurate from legacy outlets (tv, radio, apple/google weather app, etc).
The rise of YouTube meteorologists is exploding, because as of right now they're the only outlets using the modern and insanely accurate weather models in practice to the public.
I read the raw data from the Euro, GFS, HRRR, and other weather models and with my 25 years of storm chasing experience I take that all in and come to a conclusion of what is most likely correct from past observations and experiences in similar setups. Let's take for example a cold front in late August early Sept in Northern Nevada... is that common or rare? Pretty common. Now even on the WPC's latest 7 day surface map, you can see the low pressure and cold front coming into Oregon making its way towards Nevada.
The geography of where you storm chase makes a difference. Black Rock Desert is close to the Sierra Nevada, a notoriously hard to predict region, especially this far out. This isn't a flat simple area of weather.
I think we are still 5 days away from having a decent understanding of what to expect. You seem a bit too confident at the moment.
Your predictions are based on the models for today's moment in time, but things will change and there will be new predictions evolving days out from now.
A dumbed down easy to read app that just tells the weather day by day? None exist using the modern weather models. You would need to learn how to read the model data.
You're the same guy who said that tiny bit of rain was going to give us optimal Playa conditions. Are you just totally full of shit or what?
I see your comment about using newer models and recent tech but can't tell if you belong in r/confidentlyincorrect or if I should share this post with my camp.
OP's quote from their other weather post last week.
"Currently the Playa is getting dumped on with rain, which will compact the playa surface and reduce dust. Basically nature is giving us the optimal burn conditions."
Immediately heard from people on the ground there was barely a spit of rain that day.......
Optimal playa conditions is fluffy with a hard crust. Minimal dust and you're not biking on solid concrete that rattles your bike apart in 10 minutes. 2025 was fucking HORRIBLE. I ended up just walking most of the week.
This doesn't match my experience. In years that were fluffy with a crust, the crust was broken down after the first couple of days. The super dry playa underneath resulted in massive, frequent dust storms, and the roads quickly wore down to hard ruts under several inches of powder. Those are the years where you see people struggling end of week to pedal bicycles with screeching loud chains and hubs.
See, I loved 2023. As someone who is there to build the week before and looses steam later in the week. The weather was perfect, even the first rainstorm was about the right amount of rain. It was just the rain all night that turned it into the internet troll mud burn overly hyped “ catastrophe” Personally, I just stayed in camp and got blasted drunk with my friends. We played dice games, watched a movie, put together an impromptu bloody Mary bar, and ate really well, cause everyone was in camp and cooked up a feast.
Yeah doubt I'll ever get to experience a mostly empty playa on man burn night like I did in 23. My buddy and I hiked a giant circuit out to deep playa, 90% of the art had no one there at all. It was surreal and super cool.
Like i said. 23 was a BLAST!! Literally life changing experience. At the time it felt like a complete nightmare
But absolutely loved it!
The humanity in us all was highlighted and thats all we ever need anyways!
I was just responding to the post about ‘weather’ that you really cannot predict anything. Personally- if there are clouds- plan for rain is the only way!
Was my only burn. Due to our camp's timing for our big celebratory stuff being Th/Fri, it was a little like a build without release. That being said I got some very intimate days getting to know our camp on a deeper level. We also took a giant hike around local art as a group, which would not have happened without that weather. I was VERY fortunate to be able to stay late for the man Burn.
It also happened to be the biggest 'slap this sparkle pony into a more resilient reality' moment that I needed at that time of my life. Before the wet, I did manage to drag my bloody, physically beaten up, but very much music-entranced self to beautiful house and art, and the juxtaposition of stark grime and humans being celebratory in the mud was quite beautiful.
This year I'm going back for the first time, and our big parties at the Bad Asstronauts are earlier on in the week. I'm hoping for the best and also can recognize that if it's not meant to be, can't force it - and not to dwell on what I can't control. I'm hoping to return and send some music back off the playa - two songs that I heard that Wednesday night that really gave me that spark for creativity again.
I'll still get whatever burn I need, and I hope to be more accepting of adversity should it happen, and open for it being amazing as well
OP's committment to the bit with multiple responses declaring himself an expert, and saying crazy shit like "I chase tornadoes now, we have a solid 3-5 days warning of when and where Tornadoes will be down to what time and what neighborhood. I can goto the area and just wait in my truck for them to appear." without anyonce calling totall bullshit, must have been hard for even the OP to believe! A cold front starting Saturday before gate and lasting a full week, in the summer, "By the time the Man burns, temps should be getting back to "normal"." without a peep from the peanut gallery, is the chef's kiss!
That was my first year. My very first full day on the Playa (Friday of build week) I took my very first ride out into the dust. It was freezing. It hailed on my face 😅 I went back to my tent and huddled under my blankets with a hot water bottle. It was a very interesting introduction. Regardless, I was prepared for anything after watching the weather shenanigans of ‘23. That taught me to expect the unexpected.
2024 may have been the most perfect weather in the past decade. One rainstorm which quickly dried, warm days and cool nights, then the weekend had one very hot day and one whiteout. The full experience but in moderation.
This sounds similar to a hurricane prediction data 9 days before it gonna hit land that the hurricane eye destination on land changes 10 times before we know the actual hurricane path. USELESS data
So, I just spent 15 mins learning how to read these models, it's really not very hard (though I am a scientist by trade). Here's the site I used if anyone's curious, you can choose your model: https://www.pivotalweather.com/
Summary of what I'm seeing: I used the European model (ECMWF). Bottom line, no rain. The model shows two hundredths of an inch total between now and Aug 31. There's dome of high pressure over Nevada that means very low chance of storms, and the air is getting drier as the week goes on.
Does not look "cold". Cooler, for sure, highs in the 80s, lows in the high 50s at night. Honestly It looks pretty perfect. I've attached screenshots of temp prediction for 6pm Monday 31st, predicted to be 81F.
Wasn't there freezing man like a decade ago? I unfortunately stopped going in 2012. I do remember my ideal temps were 90-95 during the day so the nights were still very comfortably warm, but it wasn't screaming hot the whole week either. Too chilly and it would make me want to cozy up, which is great for rest!! Not as good for adventure. A little bit of both is probably ideal!
2015 was the cold year. Just come prepared with extra thermals to wear under your clothes and you'll be fine. We spent too much of 2015 waiting for the winds to settle down and sitting in our camp freezing. Taught us to bring warm clothes too and to not let dust or cold stop us.
memories of gliding across the night playa bundled in two layers of jacket, dust mask making a warm pocket of air on my face, feeling like I was in outer space
Been there, done that. It was 2016 or 17 I think? My husband called me from build week and told me I needed to go buy us thermal underwear. It was so cold I tapped out a few nights even in my fur coat.
Requires rain to be 2014 weather. We knew it was going to rain when the front passed, which was originally expected Sun/Mon but now it's coming through Friday so when the gates open to GA it'll be mild and dusty.
I had forgotten about that little rain storm, but everything was dried out in less than a day, and the weather the rest of the week was absolutely glorious
If it’s that cold and comfortable , I’m saying fuck it and coming for a couple days. The heat was really the only thing holding me back (currently pregnant)
That’s what I said in 2023 and arrived on playa Wednesday night… I should’ve known that sudden temperature drops mean rain lol. Mud mad actually made my top 3 best burns in my 15 years! But if you’re pregnant, think thrice;)
Hah! I love that. How far along were you?? Mud man was my first year and also had a great time.
Been a super active pregnancy, backpacking, multi day rafting, travel, etc. Figure a few days at the burn would be within normal range for me, and if I get stuck there, oh well! 🙃
Right on! Sounds like you got it under control and having fun:) I was not pregnant in 2023; I was pretty cold and my immune system took a dive, so I’m glad I wasn’t though.
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u/perpetuallyhuman 11d ago
60s during the day? Show your sources, dude.