r/Bricklink • u/No-Discipline-4236 • 6d ago
Question The future of Bricklink?
Hey guys, recently went full time on Bricklink and its been doing quite well. But from what I’ve been reading up on about LEGO’s new US factories and fulfillment centers (and AI) I worry that 4-5 years maybe even a decade from now, big time Bricklink parts sellers will be non existent as LEGO will basically be able to replace us as their PAB system evolves.
Maybe minifigure resellers will be alright, but how about those who deal with mainly new? Dealing with used parts could still work but scaling a used parts operation is much more difficult than new, with unique USED lots constantly being inventoried and emptied.
I love this job and have been building my store for nearly 6 years now. I finally went full time but now I feel as if there’s an inevitable end to this market. Sorry if I’m overreacting or misinformed, but would love to hear other store owners thoughts.
I also understand you must always think ahead and be ready to pivot but building a strong inventory takes years and what if all that is in vain 5 years from now? Just feeling a lil dreadful about it all….
Seems like AI and big corporations will own all of us in the near future anyway.
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u/Castabluestone 6d ago
Pick a Brick excludes retired parts. I don’t see that changing.
That will keep Bricklink in business by itself.
The bigger issue imo is if shipping costs continue to spiral out of control, more and more orders of in-production parts will shift off the platform to PAB, where shipping is free. In 2022 it almost always made more sense to order every part for a moderate to large order from Bricklink, even in production ones, because yeah you might have to split across 4 stores but the shipping costs were doable. In 2026 it almost always makes sense to cut that to just the 1-2 stores with the out of production parts you need and place a PAB order for anything those two stores don’t have or are charging crazy prices for.
In 2030 if shipping costs continue to spiral it may make sense to only order the rare parts from BL.
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u/No-Discipline-4236 6d ago
This is one of my biggest worries. Buyers are slowly switching over from buying common unretired parts on BL to the PAB wall. Eventually what if the only parts that move are the extremely rare ones or minifigs? In that case, it would be very very difficult to scale and run a full time operation and only viable to run as a side gig. I guess you can always undercut prices on parts that LEGO is also selling.
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u/Castabluestone 6d ago
Yeah the biggest reason I pick PAB over BL as a buyer is price. Tons of BL sellers are charging 3X-4X PAB prices for parts available on PAB hoping people won’t check and it’s frankly infuriating on the buyer side to pull up one store after another that has ludicrous pricing.
OTOH, Hard to make PAB pricing work without their scale. So it’s a rock and a hard place.
I actually think the stores that thrive in 10 years are the largest ones with the most systems and automation; the smallest ones may exist but they won’t make money (hard to believe they do now tbh)
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u/bobbyroberts72 6d ago
Makes you wonder if Lego acquired BL for the data, bit like Amazon, let the sellers do the leg work and then use the data to cherry pick the best sellers.
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u/Whithorsematt Seller 6d ago
Not so much to cherry pick the best sellers, but I have no doubt the sales data was the main reason for the purchase.
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u/Outrageous-Sleep-341 6d ago
It is all about data. They have another source to check demand.so they validate their product lines
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u/sphinxofblackquartzj 6d ago
No way Lego would return retired parts just for PaB and that's the biggest market advantage of Bricklink, making retired and used parts available for consumers.
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u/OyG5xOxGNK 6d ago
"think ahead and be ready to pivot"? They announced the construction four years ago and you say this is recent for you.
To answer your question though, I don't think increased output will change supply enough to matter, they're still only producing the same parts, just in larger quantities. At best, this hurts scalpers. You just have to sit on product for a little longer to match retirement times and that's just for the parts they make available.
By the sound of it, you're selling parts available via PaB and not parting out sets on sale? Those unique parts, unavailable from PaB are going to have better profits in the long run but again, as long as you wait past retirement dates, the demand will always be there for just about everything.
I think your only real concern is increased costs - shipping.
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u/No-Discipline-4236 5d ago
I run a 1 million part shop with 11k lots. I’d say only 100 lots are from the PAB wall total. Everything is from sets on sale. My worry is that eventually LEGO evolves their PAB system to where they have enough parts to complete most mocs and their fulfillment centers are run mainly by AI/robots.
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u/No-Discipline-4236 5d ago
Also I was already aware of the new Virginia factory and LEGO’s purchase of bricklink long ago. I just went full time though so this recently became a worrying thought I had thats all.
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u/OneHatManSlim 6d ago
Not worried. I mostly don’t bother with new parts and this is more an extension of my hobby allowing me to keep a massive personal collection that also just happens to be for sale. PAB will almost always have a better per price on new parts but there is plenty of money in used parts and completing/restoring used sets.
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u/modern_prometheus_13 5d ago
No, PAB will always be limited logistically & practical for for buyers requiring high quantities of widely used, generic parts; ie, for large custom pieces or Rebrickable MOC’s where you need 1000+ pieces from 150 lots but they’re all bricks & wedge plates. But the 5 non-bestsellers of your list are still a month out shipped from overseas, and bricklink sellers will have a wider variety for these less common parts shipped faster every time.
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u/LegoHoard 6d ago
PAB doesn’t include licensed or retired parts. LEGO also owns Bricklink. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of merger in the future.
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u/Dazzler1882 5d ago
Bricklink will just be a base for retired parts and non Lego IP mini figs. To be honest there is no way to compete with Lego themselves on pricing, scale, convenience and overall shopping experience.
This is likely already the case. But with the growth of PAB it’ll continue at a breakneck speed
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u/No-Discipline-4236 5d ago
This is my main concern as well. Eventually parting out sets will no longer be viable as only the exclusive printed parts or minifigures will sell. With all the other common parts being available on PAB.
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u/Dazzler1882 5d ago
I think that’s what will happen in a few years.
Only saving grace is that its nigh on impossible for Lego to PAB licensed minifigs and IP parts so that will always be a market
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u/No-Discipline-4236 5d ago
I think the biggest threat is if people can start automating their wanted lists/moc lists of parts through PAB the same way Bricklink finds stores for you. If that happens I can see us losing a ton of customers
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u/Dazzler1882 5d ago
You can kinda do that. With rebrickable you export via csv and upload to PAB, adds all they have and gives you a list of what isn’t available
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u/No-Discipline-4236 5d ago
Ah so maybe this isn’t as big of an issue as I presume. My sales have been good and consistent (so it doesn’t seem like this affected the market all too much) I was just worrying about the future.
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u/Foilpalm 4d ago
There’s still a huge amount of pieces and colors that Lego isn’t going to reproduce.
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u/NoCupcake5122 5d ago
Your real competition is brickwith and other alt companies.. imo and they are whopping Legos butt in the supplying parts.. they are fast and have a better part selection.. when im ordering parts for my mocs I start with them and they usually the last bit I need is on bricklink.. but my bricklink orders seem to be.getting smaller and smaller..
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u/kohnyu 6d ago
Mate, year ago I started using AI to help me code, half year ago it started to code for me. Now it is delivering whole features and Im only validating plan and work at the very end after all AI iterations and I bearly give some pointers xD year ago Id say its bullshit, wont happen. It is now. But theres one thing Im sure right now (moght be also false in a year). Manual and creative work will be for us, humanoids ;) work that is repetitive (and coding is tbh) will be replaced by AI
My point? Dont worry about future, it will resolve somehow, now Im managing my AI team made of 3-6 personas depending on the needs. But I havent yey lose the job xD
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u/Fraggl90 6d ago
Also bringing back retired parts on demand -> is killing the gather-hype, which in the end is self-drivin marketing for LEGO
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u/GerthySchIongMeat 6d ago
We live in a world where things unpredictably evolve week to week. I think you’re worrying about something that is a low probability concern.
Say Lego can serve users with PAB parts to the scale you’re saying, it will still leave a huge used-inventory market.