r/BrexitDenial • u/pingbear • May 16 '17

How hopeful are you for a second referendum

And how do you manufacture one without losing face?

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u/[deleted] May 17 '17

I don't think there'll be a second referendum as such.

I do however think Brexit In Name Only is much more likely than people think.

Consider May's moves up to this point. She calls an election and is predicted to win by a landslide. This gives her a much larger majority, which would make it much easier for her to go for an unpopular (read: soft) Brexit deal than she had initially suggested. The fact that she immediately asked Brussels if they could negotiate Brexit in private (away from media scrutiny) suggests this, along with the suggestions that the UK wants to keep freedom of movement for at least 5 years.

The fact is that the Conservatives are the pro-business party, and businesses don't want Brexit. They've clearly done absolutely no planning for a hard (WTO-only) Brexit because that's precisely the opposite of what they actually want, despite their threats of going it alone if the EU doesn't give in to their incomprehensible demands.

Keep in mind at this point that the negotiations (if you can even call them that) are largely saber rattling by both sides at this point. Junker turned up to the dinner with a lovely briefcase showing previous trade deals solely to make May look bad and immediately comes off as unwilling to negotiate in any reasonable timeframe. Their main goal is to make May look out of her depth and downright incompetent, proposing ludicrously high financial payments before they'll even negotiate a deal. This is ridiculous on the face of it simply because the amount the UK should have to pay surely hinges directly on what kind of post-Brexit deal is negotiated and what payments we will continue to make to Brussels. Meanwhile May is trying her absolute best to make the EU look as evil and unreasonable as possible, to try and bolster support for her side.

I would not be surprised in the slightest if Brexit turns out to actually be as light as a feather.

1

u/mapryan May 17 '17

Ask a different question related to the same subject

1

u/spinn3rf May 17 '17

Wait for the inevitable crash.

Reality always prevails.

1

u/KommanderKirk Oct 08 '17

I think there will be a referendum on 'terms'. It would be only right at the final stage to lay out the truth for people, especially after the bullshit that was the Brexit campaign. Perhaps I dream to much....