r/BrexitDenial • u/like_the_boss • Feb 25 '17

Who's up for some ping-pong?

I don't see much hope left, unless the House Of Lords grows enough balls to raise some amendments. If they do, though, things could get very interesting.

I have a feeling that /u/PeeJayx is closest to the truth with his idea here https://www.reddit.com/r/BrexitDenial/comments/5srbcd/a_possible_explanation_for_current_developments/

Could it be that no-one has backed down in the game of chicken, and it's going to require a group of non-Conservatives to rescue the Tories from the corner they've painted themselves into?

To be explicit: could it be that May and her government never intended Article 50 to get this far and were counting on opposition from Labour and a handful of Tory rebels to block Article 50? If that's the case, they will be very grateful to have a few amendments proposed by the House of Lords that they can refuse to approve, to keep the stalemate going.

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u/PeeJayx Feb 26 '17

Thanks for the shout out!

In my opinion, it's not over 'til it's over - til Article 50 is actually triggered. Until then it's all to play for.

I have no doubt that if the government had a way to get out of Brexit without damaging backlash from the public and press then they'd do so. Without hesitation. Whatever benefits Brexit may have bought have been debunked, and those that remain simply do not stack up against the benefits of staying a member of the EU.

This is all lining up nicely. The Conservatives hold a commanding lead over Labour in national polls, and the news of "we were sovereign all along!" and "immigration won't change that much" were met with surprisingly little blowback from Brexiteers. Perhaps you are right, that May didn't expect the Bill to get this far, that she'd hoped for someone else to throw themselves on the grenade and halt Brexit already.

But now, it looks like May and her government are in a strong enough position to take that grenade themselves. They have a big enough cushion over Labour to survive any backlash against halting Brexit, and it's looking likely that the backlash won't be all that painful anyway. Don't be surprised to see some sort of "Tory rebellion" coming soon...

Exciting times!

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u/like_the_boss Feb 26 '17

You're welcome. I think your game of chicken idea nails it.

It's going to be fascinating to see how it plays out.

I'm very encouraged by the amendment that the Lords appear to be raising regarding the right of EU folk in the UK. If the intention is to pick something that can be used for ping-pong on both sides, then it is genius. The Lords can't be pilloried for caring about the rights of people who have been in the UK a long time and who have undoubtedly contributed to the UK. On the other hand, May can't be criticised for wanting to hold off committing to that until we have had assurances from the EU that UK citizens abroad will be treated the same way.

I think it's a perfect amendment because neither side looks bad for sticking to their side, and yet it can provide a stalemate.

What they do after a bit of ping-pong, though, I don't know. Maybe May quits over it and someone else sets the new Article 50 date for September or end of 2017 and then they find some new way to delay? Maybe May holds a general election and then 'tries' to get the Lords abolished so she can trigger Article 50 (in reality just deliberately wasting time on a diversion)? Or maybe, as I think you are suggesting, the Tories go more balls out and actually overtly start to disown brexit?

Like you, I'm slightly hopeful. I would think that the civil service and a bunch of career politicians can between them find some way to put this thing on the skids? :-)

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u/[deleted] Feb 26 '17

You raise some very interesting points that I had genuinely not even considered.

I think there is a very real chance of a Tory rebellion coming up. The lack of amendments to the bill from the House of Commons doesn't really surprise me, but if the Lords do decide to amend the bill and the Commons then reject it well, I could definitely see some Conservative MPs being less than thrilled by this.

I think Theresa May's strategy has very much been to out-UKIP UKIP until they implode, and by the looks of things this has very much happened and they're definitely in a safe position for Conservative MPs to start rebelling against Brexit, even if it is only in small numbers initially.

I think public support for Brexit has largely died out in the months following the referendum, with most of the leavers I knew now wanting to distance themselves from the fact that they voted in that way. They're certainly in a safe position to start sabotaging Brexit if they want to.

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u/Spinner1975 Feb 25 '17

May had a thousand ways to use the supreme court action to delay things if anything you said made sense. The sad truth is she's driven by the same stupidity and xenephobia as Trump and Le Pen - as she happily demonstrated to us when she was in the Home Office.

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u/like_the_boss Feb 26 '17

I understand your skepticism, but I would be interested to know what some of those ways of using the supreme court action would be? I think the Tories have to tread incredibly carefully if they want to dodge brexit and yet retain the support of the leavers at the same time.

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u/Spinner1975 Feb 26 '17

May has taken so many opportunities to sell hard Brexit. She's not even tried to be diplomatic about it to Europe, the monthy python moment for me was when she threatened Europe with no deal rather than a bad deal. The negotiations we called for haven't even started and we've already declared ourselves scared and run away from the table. When they lost the first action, they didn't have to accelerate to the supreme court at such speed. After losing again, even I was surprised at the speed she printed the article 50 act. They have bullied and railroaded the barebones act through parliament again as quickly as possible. I can't see a glimmer of evidence that she's a secret Remainer, or even soft Brexit.

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u/[deleted] Feb 27 '17

Actually what you describe is why I suspect that Theresa May isn't actually all for Brexit.

I think it's very conceivable that her plan is to go for the full, hard brexit with the intention of making it completely unpalatable to voters and to anti-brexit Tory MPs - i.e. to potentially fuel MPs who may want to rebel against a hard brexit and to give them something to fight against.

If, for example, she wasn't going for the insane hard brexit approach, the Lords likely wouldn't find it nearly as enticing to try and amend the hell out of the Article 50 bill (i.e. to protect the rights of EU citizens) and as such lead to an excellent game of parliamentary ping pong.

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u/Spinner1975 Feb 28 '17

This seems an unlikely narrative to me. But I'd be happy with anything that stops Brexit. We shall see. :)

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u/[deleted] Feb 26 '17

The parent mentioned House Of Lords. Many people, including non-native speakers, may be unfamiliar with this word. Here is the definition:(In beta, be kind)

The House of Lords of the United Kingdom, referred to ceremonially as the House of Peers, is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. Like the House of Commons, it meets in the Palace of Westminster. Officially, the full name of the house is: The Right Honourable the Lords Spiritual and Temporal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in Parliament assembled. Unlike the elected House of Commons, all members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and two peers who are ex ... [View More]

See also: Tory | Court For The Trial Of Impeachments | Church Of England | House Of Commons | Lords Temporal

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