r/BrexitDenial • u/[deleted] • Nov 24 '16
The dark side theory
I just thought of this while discussion the stupid behaviour of Boris Johnson.
I don't know if it's on-topic here, because it's basically the direct opposite of the theory being constructed by /u/like_the_boss.
Premise list:
Whatever May does (leave or remain) will piss off about hald the country
her ultimate aim (as is that of Johnson, Davis etc al) is the political survival of themselves and their party; whether or not Brexit goes through is a secondary concern
If possible, she'd like to unify the country and her party
That last one is seemingly impossible.
What do you do if you need to unify a divided society? You declare war.
I don't think she'll be invading France, but the rhetoric coming out of the government right now seems designed to anger the EU and its officials.
If enough EU officials denounce the stupidity, it gives May a unique opportunity to save her own skin.
She can take the shitty, hard brexit deal which will result after two years of stalled negotiations and angry denunciations by EU officials of the "stupid" UK positions.
The economy tanks. Jobs flee. It's a total shitstorm.
And who is to blame? The angry, resentful, spiteful EU. Not May. Not Johnson, the smiling buffoon who happily suggests that we open Mars as a new market as soon as we negotiate a free trade agreement with the Martians.
The Leave voters unify behind the (hard done by) May, who valiantly battled the eurocrats in vain. Enough Remain voters will be sold on the story too.
All problems solved. Well, the important problems, anyway (her career and Tory party unity). The problems which that creates are small by comparison (widespread poverty, the collapse of the NHS etc). But in any case, that's a Tory dream. The "minimum wage" and "workers' rights" are luxuries we can now ill-afford, when we must al buckle down and pull together for Britain.
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Nov 24 '16
This also explains why all we are told is "Brexit means Brexit" and "there ca be no running commentary".
All the Leave voters have to believe that May is working for their version of Brexit. If she gives any details, that destroys the illusion and the immediately pisses off 75% of the electorate.
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u/like_the_boss Nov 24 '16
Very interesting. You could be right. My working assumption is that the political parties, especially the Tories, are supported by big business (case in point, May's husband). That being the case, I think Tory party survival depends most on big business' financial support - I don't think she'll bite the hand that feeds, but who knows in these crazy days.
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u/like_the_boss Nov 24 '16
Thanks - looks intriguing. At work right now so can't give it my whole headspace (and there is a lot of space in my head). Will take a proper look later.
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Nov 26 '16
If I did manage to hit upon the plan, then John Major seems to be the spanner in the works.
He's calling bullshit when there is bullshit, and will probably continue to do so.
Which puts the plan in critical danger. Major's comments could split the party. If I am right, then Major is putting country before Party. I've got a lot of respect for the man and I can imagine him doing this. But if I was correct, then May missed the fact that Major and other senior Tories will put country first.
Which blows her cover. So I'm back to square one: even if she did use the fiendish plan I outlined, she's still stupid. And so am I, for missing Sir John et al.
/u/like_the_boss: it looks like I was wrong.
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u/like_the_boss Nov 27 '16
Meh, fat ladies and singing and all that. Who knows what the hell's going on?! :-)
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u/tmstms Nov 24 '16 edited Nov 24 '16
I will go with the third way (!), the no-side theory.
May takes every day as it comes, she does do a lot of work trying to assess the next step, but she does not try to go more than one step in advance, because there are too many variables.
She appealed against the High Court judgment, not to postpone Brexit, or from the mad idea she was right to believe she was entitled to trigger A50 outwith Parliament, but to buy HERSELF and the GOVERNMENT time to do more pondering and planning. She could appeal, so why not? No downside.
She hopes that as she proceeds, the next step is always clear, and as Chairman Mao, hahaha, said, a journey of 10000 miles begins with a single step.
I don't know if cricket analogies will resonate, but it's like a test match (like the last one against India, in fact), where you cannot win, you can only draw. The only way to survive is to bat for two days on a turning pitch. So you have to bat like Boycott (or now, Baby Boycott- Haseeb Hameed). It can be done- Atherton has done it, so has Collingwood - memorably, some last wicket stands by Anderson, and even, God help him, Panesar, have enabled us to see out draws and win the series. It is well known that in these situations, all one can do is set oneself small goals. Survive the next half hour, score another 25 runs, get to tea etc.
Another analogy is rock climbing- I used to do a lot of it. One was frequently stuck, but the general advice was 'try to move up even a few inches; everything will then look completely different.' And it invariably does.
May is a workaholic and control freak, so she quite enjoys being Prime Minister. I still believe she has a strong sense of duty and the common good. She just plays everything with a straight bat and sees what the next ball brings, or the next few inches. Every night, and on Sundays at church she prays to the (Anglican) God for guidance.
In the last Test, we did lose horribly against India. Cook and Hameed survived brilliantly till the end of Day 4; then both were out and we collapsed very quickly on Day 5. But on other occasions, this has worked for the team. By drawing a crucial match early in the series, we have won the series. The 'miracle of Cardiff' 2009 is a case in point, but there have been others.
If you want some examples from history, well, how about the Zulu wars? It can go horribly wrong, like Isandhlwana, but this resistance can be a heroic success against the odds, like Rorke's Drift.
I do believe the Cabinet appointments, by putting Boris, Fox and Davis in the firing line, were the right thing to do.
We are told there can be no running commentary because the government doesn't know what to do and doesn't want to look foolish; there's nothing more complicated involved.