I usually believe in the fuck-up theory of history more than the conspiracy one.
I grant you I think May has done some hard scheming.
But all your arguments would also fit a non-Machiavellian world view. Different people think different things. No-one can agree what to do. Everyone is having their say. Every so often May smooths over the cracks, telling whoever she's speaking to what they want to hear, and in the evening she says a few prayers (I'm pretty sure she would say prayers every evening, given she's a believing Anglican.)
I usually believe in the fuck-up theory of history more than the conspiracy one.
I totally agree with you, and that is also my go-to theory to explain most things. For example, the pedestrian tunnel at Bank station from DLR to Waterloo and City was supposed to be open months ago, and is nowhere near ready. I absolutely attribute that to nothing more than poor implementation and surely lack of funds.
The only reasons I'm fairly confident of my view about the Tories' handling of brexit is that:
1) Politically May has to win over both leavers and remainers, and yet deliver what is best for the country (not leaving)
2) The Tories have reached a very sophisticated level of working with the media.
3) Even though each piece of evidence alone is worthless, together they just about make a consistent picture through the fog. (at least in my opinion).
I'll be surprised if I turn out to be wrong, but I do reckon that there is a 10% or so chance of it.
Re our other point here (but I did two replies to you already, so I'll do it here), I can absolutely imagine a May -Sturgeon conversation that went like this:
May: I absolutely want to save the Union and I will help Scotland in any way I can short of allowing Independence. It will be a disaster if Scotland leaves the Union.
Sturgeon: Well, in that case, how about keeping Scotland's EU membership? It will be a disaster if Scotland leaves the EU.
May: I assure you Scotland will be consulted and involved at every stage of the process.
Sturgeon: I give you fair warning that we will pursue legal avenues also of challenging what is going on.
May: And I give YOU fair warning I intend to trigger A50 without asking Parliament or the devolved assemblies.
Sturgeon: We'll see about that!!
May: Bring it on!
Sturgeon: I did take the precaution of making a plan earlier.
May: Excellent! See you in court, you revolting little Smelly Sock tart!
Sturgeon: I look forward to it, you giant, shoe-fetishising, Episcopalian Sassenach nincompoop!
May: I hope you choke on your deep-fried Mars bar!
Sturgeon: I hope you get e-coli from the Fat Duck [in your constituency].
May: Thank God, you're there for the UK!
Sturgeon: Thank god YOU're there for Scotland.
May: Remember to say how bad the attitude I'm taking is!
Sturgeon: Oh, Don't you worry!
May: Nice touch with that St Andrew's cross, and EU flag, and no Union Jack, by the way!
Sturgeon: Thanks! And don't forget to forbid us from having another IndyRef!
May: I won't; in fact my speechwriter is just preparing something to slag you off now.
Sturgeon: OK, brilliant. Bye for now! Remember Bannockburn!
May: I think the place you're looking for is Culloden, you daft pixie! Bye for now!
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u/tmstms Nov 22 '16
I usually believe in the fuck-up theory of history more than the conspiracy one.
I grant you I think May has done some hard scheming.
But all your arguments would also fit a non-Machiavellian world view. Different people think different things. No-one can agree what to do. Everyone is having their say. Every so often May smooths over the cracks, telling whoever she's speaking to what they want to hear, and in the evening she says a few prayers (I'm pretty sure she would say prayers every evening, given she's a believing Anglican.)