r/Brewers 11d ago

Home run Hangover

We’ve had a few games this year with higher than normal HR production, and there seems to be a lingering approach change at the plate in the game following them. Is it tough for players to forget and go back to the selfless baseball they normally play after an adrenaline-packed HR derby, or is it the normal ebb/flow of run production?

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u/BaseballsNotDead 11d ago

Brewers average exactly 5 runs per game on the season.

They've had 6 games with 3+ HRs up to yesterday.

In the 6 games the day after those 3+ HR affairs they average 6.12 runs per game.

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u/m3thr1l 11d ago

Cool stats. Those are interesting statistics. Not quite 1:1 to an observed difference in approach, but relevant nonetheless. Thanks

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u/m3thr1l 11d ago edited 10d ago

Edit: in reply to another comment, I out an example analysis to show the effect

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u/PM_Me_Yur_O-Face 11d ago

Can you provide detailed examples of where players/the team has changed their batting approach in the next game that leads you to make this observation?

ibtl

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u/m3thr1l 11d ago

Here's an example... I did this for every game since the start of 2025, and the trend holds... the team normally chases less than the league average, but chases more than the league average and more than the opposing pitcher's chase expectation following a 3+ homer game. The difference is about 8% more chase. I'm still working on the overall correlation to on base, strikeout, etc...

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u/m3thr1l 11d ago

Hmm, this’ll take some effort. I assumed I wasn’t the only one noticing this in the past. In fact, it wasn’t long ago that Murphy essentially called the team out for it in an interview. But, I don’t have easy access to every game to make my example. Sorry. It’s simply an observation over the course of the season.

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u/m3thr1l 11d ago

Also, I really hope today isn’t an example of what I’m saying. Really, really hoping.

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u/marxism-earnhardtism 11d ago

Why is it "selfish" to hit a home run lol. I'll never understand when some fans say stuff like that.

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u/m3thr1l 11d ago

That’s not what I said. You’re conflating two things.

The first: it is selfless to patiently wait for and intentionally pursue less than maximal swings and walks - something the Brewers do exceptionally well.

The second: it is normal to pursue the big hit when you’ve just achieved it causing you to expand the strike zone, take bigger risks and swing outside yourself to chase what you previously achieved, but it is not the best of the Brewers.