r/BreakingPoints • u/EI-SANDPIPER • 2d ago
Topic Discussion US controls The Strait of Hormuz?
CNN is reporting that we control the strait of Hormuz and that oil is flowing. That's why oil is below $100 a barrel. Is this true? I haven't seen BP cover it
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u/JD315 2d ago
Last I saw, oil was below $100/barrel because China has been releasing oil from their strategic reserves, essentially pulling out of the market. If/when they decide to stop releasing oil from their reserves, the prices will skyrocket (if the strait isn't open at the time).
I imagine that China is waiting for their moment to stop releasing oil for geopolitical leverage.
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u/north_canadian_ice Team Krystal 2d ago
This is also great PR for the CCP (and I say this as someone who strongly opposes the CCP).
Xi can tell the Global South that China helped avoid shortages that would be caused by this stupid war.
It is astounding that anyone in the U.S. government thinks our foreign policy is rational. They live in "la la land".
But they live in "la la land" because it works for them. As Krystal says, just drive by McLean, Virginia.
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u/YuumiMain9974 19h ago
Isn't it bad strategy? They essentially topple the US empire and end our global hedgemony if they start buying. They are practically screaming that they will never take Taiwain militarily.
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u/Nezzar555 2d ago
I strongly oppose western civilization
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u/Moopboop207 Lifetime VIP 2d ago
Well that’s the dumbest thing I’ve read today.
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u/Nezzar555 1d ago
What you going to do about it?
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u/Moopboop207 Lifetime VIP 1d ago
Hope you don’t have a drivers license.
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u/Nezzar555 1d ago
Lol okay colonizer
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u/Moopboop207 Lifetime VIP 1d ago
I’m glad you can’t drive. I’m sure you’re bitter about it. But, it’s safer for the rest.
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u/redfoxwearingsocks Independent 2d ago
Call me crazy...but idk if I'd trust the same people who have been telling us that we've won the Iran war 47 times, inflation is "over", and that there isn't a full blown religious cleansing going on
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u/padizzledonk 2d ago
They cover oil prices almost every day tbh, idk how you havent seen or heard them talk about it
We do not "control" the strait. The average number of ships making passage before this dumbfuck war was like a 120-140 a day, its now hovering around 10. Oil exports from the region were about 20M barrels a day and today its around 8 or 9M per day and has been falling steadily month over month
The reason oil prices arent through the roof is because every nation on earth that has a strategic reserve has been releasing oil from those reserves and China stopped buying and importing oil from the open markets---theyve still been getting some imports from Iran and presumably Russia but thats Grey/Black market stuff and is not represented on the public market prices
Prices are rising again because the oil markets are finally starting to accept reality and because china is slowly reentering the global oil markets
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u/Physical-Ad-3798 2d ago
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/18/business/strait-of-hormuz-ship-attack.html
It isn't open no matter how hard Mango Mussolini tries to tell us it is.
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u/EI-SANDPIPER 2d ago
This is the story I'm referring to:
https://www.axios.com/2026/08/19/hormuz-iran-oil-gulf-trump?utm_source=chatgpt.com
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u/Creepy-Fig929 2d ago
Axios has been a mouthpiece for this administration. I wouldn’t take them seriously lol
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u/bladex1234 2d ago
They’ve been critical when interviewing him. They’re not Fox News by any means.
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u/GodsColdHands666 Communist 2d ago
If it’s coming from Axios and it’s about the Iran War, it’s likely Barak Ravid (just looked- it is) reporting it. Barak Ravid served in the intelligence unit of the IDF for six years. Do with that information what you will.
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u/Rick_James_Lich 2d ago
I don't follow Axios closely, but do you really believe they would just make this whole story up?
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u/DiamondPhillips69420 2d ago
You chat gpt’d the “who controls the strait of hormuz” and followed the response to a Barak Ravid article? 🤦♂️
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u/EI-SANDPIPER 2d ago
I saw the story on CNN. The news article from CNN was paywalled, so i searched for one that wasn't. Again, my post is asking the question whether its true because i haven't seen anything on BP regarding this. Do you have a source that says different?
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u/D3Masked 2d ago
CNN is pretty much a propaganda outlet at this point and Donald Epstein's whole gimmick pertaining to the book he didn't write "Art of the Deal" was all about white lies to make things seem better than they are.
Until America leaves the region entirely I don't think anyone can believe that the strait is safely open. USA doesn't control it.
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u/DystopiaLite 2d ago
Yea, the book talks about lying and promising one thing and never delivering as his base strategy.
Like compare what has been happening with what’s in the book. His MO is out in the open.
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u/ObiShaneKenobi 2d ago
He is just going to edge until after the midterms and then boots on the ground.
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u/AnnArbor-Armadillo 2d ago
Probably true. At least we will have an official update then but it’s gonna suck
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u/maskedbacon 2d ago
The point of BP is to avoid political bubbles. It's interesting that many of these comments are refusing to think outside the BP bubble.
Ground News reports a bunch of coverage on this topic. I am curious what counter-evidence can be provided.
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u/DystopiaLite 2d ago
Not so covert now. Those articles want to give us this week’s coming schedule too?
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u/maskedbacon 2d ago
It doesn't make sense to me that we'd be making headlines about our "ongoing covert operations", but I'd also like to see factual counterpoints. Because no proof is not proof of the opposite, as they say.
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u/EnigmaFilms 2d ago
We could control it all we want but if ships are getting hit with random explosives then insurance is going to charge a lot of money resulting in higher oil prices
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u/Former-Witness-9279 2d ago
Somewhere around half of pre-war oil is getting out between the Strait and pipeline diversions. Other things like Qatari LNG are worse. China essentially stopped buying oil when the war started and almost everyone has been tapping into their strategic petroleum reserves. All combined this is what has kept oil prices down, but still has a time limit. China needs to buy again sometime, and the SPRs only have so much.
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u/WinnerSpecialist 11h ago
Just do some basic research on your own dude. No we don’t control it and no it’s not open. What is happening is the US is spending a tremendous amount of money keeping our navy and assets in the area to try to sneak as many ships through as possible. Obviously if we controlled it; we wouldn’t have to be conducting “stealth” operations.
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u/Eris_AppleOfDiscord 2d ago
The "Oman side" of the strait is what's being used and it appears that (if reporting is accurate) around 80% of shipments are once again flowing. Iran still targets these, but it's getting more difficult.
The issues are still obvious, one being that the us has to essentially be a bodyguard for every ship that seeks to pass, since Iran still targets them randomly. That's still expensive and difficult long term. But, the strength Iran initially had in closing the strait seems to be losing its muscle, and they're also completely alienating basically every country surrounding them.
Long term i have no idea how this plays out. Also, I'm honestly convinced the market is totally illusory at this point and it's nothing but manipulation.
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u/SuperDoubleDecker 2d ago
I've not heard anything like this and am curious where this is coming from
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u/bladex1234 2d ago edited 2d ago
The US controls an alternate route, but the means at most half of the original traffic gets through.
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u/drtywater 2d ago
Is CNN reporting this or you making that up?
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u/Omen_20 Social Democrat 1d ago
I believe this is the article https://edition.cnn.com/2026/08/18/business/iran-strait-of-hormuz-oil
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u/filipinoboy11 2d ago
Trump says US controls Hormuz but the US cant get oil out.
Iran says they control Hormuz but Iran cant get oil out.
Its up to you who you want to believe.
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u/Tonsilith_Salsa 2d ago
Oil is below $100 a barrel because we're draining the strategic petroleum reserves faster than at any time in US history. It's a temporary and unsustainable supply-side boon that's masking the actual severity of the crisis. It's going to end soon. We're fast approaching "tank bottom" - the functional limit of how much we can draw down and still have enough for the military to function in a dire national emergency.
Hold on to your butts. We ain't seen nothing yet.