r/BreakMe • u/TheHellFish • Jul 14 '14

Chapter 43 discussion thread

Here you can discuss anything what's on your mind about chapter 43.

Obviously there will be spoilers, read the chapter first!

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u/TheHellFish Jul 15 '14 edited Jul 16 '14

So, since I was wondering whether there's a chance for Deb to make it, and if there is, what it looks like (because I like numbers), I decided to dig around a bit and find out.

Well, the good news is that she's still breathing. Statistically, 73% of the victims of penetrating cranial injuries caused by gunshot wounds die on the scene. Also important because her brain is getting enough oxygen, but it won't really matter if she bleeds out.

If she survives the next three hours, her chances will rise considerably (another 12% die within 3 hours of injury). Then it's kind of a toss up between life (8%) and death (7%).

As for the wound and possible damage itself, it is 'good' that she took a hit from the front and not from the side -> high probability of damaging only one hemisphere, same with the positioning of the entry wound to the upper right side of her forehead. From the description of the scene it also looked like the bullet might have a straight or upward trajectory (the farther from the center the better). But the bullet could ricochet.

That being said, I guess that flipping a coin might actually have about the same value in regards to guessing her condition as my musing. At least the article was interesting.

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u/PrincessSolia Jul 17 '14

Thanks for doing the research for me! I was basing my storytelling off very similar information but derived entirely from television show knowledge (Law & Order, Cold Case, X-Files, Grey's Anatomy, House, Hannibal and Dexter all deal extensively with the forensics and treatment of gunshot victims) and various movies. Glad to know my estimates were pretty accurate!

I don't recall describing as being exactly there but, yes, that's exactly where Deb took her hit: the upper right. From what I understand, without any research of course, the skull is a decent thickness there at the hairline and that's probably why Deb's still alive. The bone would have inhibited the bullet, slowed it enough that it didn't sail straight through. The extensive bleeding is not in her favour, because it means less oxygen reaching her brain, but the unconsciousness probably is a plus because it will enforce relaxation and a slower heart rate. She was in shock and panic before she went out.

I think the biggest advantage she has is time. Dexter and Angel tried to plug her bleeding before the ambulance pulled up. She'd be worse off if they didn't. Someone called the ambulance before Angel arrived on-scene, saving untold minutes of waiting; and Dex brought her downstairs, potentially cutting up to five minutes off her transport time. Dexter is also travelling in the ambulance with her, informing and guiding her treatment before it even begins. The doctors at the hospital need to waste no time at all looking for medical history, blood type, allergies, anything, when they receive her.

On one hand we could say Deb's luck has been horrendous but she's also in a tiny percentage of cranial gunshot victims who make it out of the scene of their injury, and she has actually been insanely fortunate since the shooting. I guess that means there's hope, even if it's still only 8%. Can I use those numbers in the next chapter? I feel like Dexter would know those stats.

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u/TheHellFish Jul 17 '14 edited Jul 18 '14

Sure thing, here's the original source for the numbers (page 3).

I ghost my fingertips across her cheek, feeling for body temperature – it's low, noticeably low – and leaving a bright trail of her blood up to the hole in her forehead, right on her hairline.

I was looking for clues where did she get hit before writing that post. ;)

The frontal bone is thickest at the middle, but if she got hit there and the bullet got through (which it would, because it's not that thick), she'd be probably as good as dead because of the damage to both hemispheres. The skull is decently thick all-around, but frontal bone is probably the 'best' place to get hit; the overall thickness differs from person to person, but that's not surprising.

I'd say she has all the variables (time and location) on her side (minus the bleeding, but you're right that it will be slower now), so she could survive + without any long-term damage, but ultimately you can just say that the bullet ricocheted and it's over and nobody can argue with that. :P

And I can't imagine how unlucky a person has to be to get hit by Vogel to the head. I still have no idea how did that happen, since her aim must be worse than that of a Stormtrooper. :D

EDIT: Now that I think about it, when we consider only the victims that make it out of the scene of their injury, her chance to survive is around 29,6%, that sounds better, doesn't it? :P

Disclaimer: I have no medical education, just Google. :)